To analyse
Cameroon: what remains of the opposition to Paul Biya's regime?
From left to right, opponent John Fru Ndi, Cameroonian President Paul Biya and opponent Maurice Kamto.
© Seyllou / Ludovic Marin / Stéphane de Sakutin / AFP
Text by: Valentin Zinga Follow
6 mins
While the Cameroonian People's Democratic Rally (RDPC, in power) has barely finished celebrating the 40th anniversary of Paul Biya's accession to the presidency, the internal crisis in the Social Democratic Front (SDF), long considered the main party opposition, and the announcement by the Movement for the Renaissance of Cameroon (MRC) of Maurice Kamto that he will take part "
in all the upcoming elections
", raise questions about the ability of the opposition forces to face the senatorial elections scheduled for 2023, then the presidential, legislative and municipal elections expected in 2025.
Publicity
Read more
Gone are the days of internal speckled foil struggles.
Considered for many years since the return to the multiparty system as the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Front (SDF), of which John Fru Ndi has held the reins for thirty-two years, is in the grip of convulsions led by two diametrically opposed camps.
At the beginning of December, the operation to renew the basic organs of the party, as a prelude to the holding of a congress, the “supreme organ” of this political formation, appeared to be a powerful indicator of a deep malaise.
In this case, the suspension of the regional executives and their temporary replacement by "coordinations", responsible for bringing to a conclusion a process supposed to be completed last October, have highlighted the extent of the dividing lines which increased in intensity over time.
"
This decision by the party's national executive board has a double objective: to remove regional presidents, most of whom, if not all, do not belong to
Joshua Osih
,
[the first vice-president, and unsuccessful candidate for the presidential election of October 2018, Editor's note]
on the one hand, and replace them with militants who are indebted to him, in order to ensure their support at the congress.
Worse, the party leadership has appointed ten Anglophones for the ten regions of the country, ignoring the Francophones
", condemns Jean Tsomelou, former secretary general of the SDF and member of the "G.27", a group of twenty-seven executives with long experience of the party, and openly opposed to John Fru Ndi.
Two irreconcilable camps?
“
The party, relying on its basic texts, wanted to resolve the blockages observed on the ground within the framework of the renewal of the organs.
He therefore decided to designate coordination, entrusted to our twenty elected officials, who are English-speaking.
The truth is that our comrades opposite, who no longer hold the base, want the congress to be held, before the renewal of the organs at the base
”, retorts Joshua Osih.
The two camps are, moreover, divided on the political calendar of the party.
“
Fru Ndi will never convene the congress, which should be held around February 24, 2023. The reason is simple: he has lost the base
”, slice Jean Tsomelou.
According to Joshua Osih, “
the congress will indeed be held next year.
Perhaps not in February, which could be that of the senatorial elections.
It will take place, and I am one of those who campaign for this deadline to be symbolically scheduled around May 26
[commemorative date of the launch of the party's activities in 1990, editor's note] ”, confirms Joshua Osih.
Beyond this internal SDF meeting, the camps are opposed on the political line of the party.
The "G.27", which claims to be the "original SDF", wants to be formal and pessimistic.
“
The SDF is finished.
He can no longer win a single councilor's seat, nor a single election.
John Fru Ndi is no longer in the logic of having elected officials.
With Mr. Osih, they use the label of the SDF for negotiations with the regime in place
”, affirms the former secretary general Jean Tsoumelou.
Sweeping away these remarks shared by the "G.27", and underlining the "
progress recorded in the improvement of the Cameroonian electoral system, thanks to the dialogue with those in power
", the first vice-president of the SDF wants, for its part, reassuring.
"
Our electoral base in the North-West and South-West regions is, of course, traumatized by years of war
[allusion to the serious crisis that has been raging in the English-speaking part of the country since 2016, against a backdrop of secessionist demands, editor's note ]
.
But she is stronger than ever.
The populations there have understood that the Ambazonians
[secessionists, partisans of the creation of a ghost republic of Ambazonia, editor's note],
are not the solution, any more than the CPDM
[Democratic Rally of the Cameroonian People, in power, which won the legislative and municipal elections of February 2020, in the area, Ed]”.
Back in the race of Maurice Kamto and his party
The internal crisis ended up raising questions about what remains of the Cameroonian opposition, just as
Maurice Kamto
, president of the Movement for the Renaissance of Cameroon (MRC), officially ranked second behind Paul Biya in the presidential election of Cameroon. October 2018, announces that his party "
will take part in all the upcoming elections in our country
".
“
The SDF is undermined by growing internal fractures.
But these fractures do not affect his stronghold in the North-West and South-West, where the crisis prevents his deployment.
The MRC, which plans to go to the elections, after having taken part in the legislative and municipal elections of 2013 when it was still a young party, and boycotted those of 2020, will have to prove its competitiveness
”, analyzes the socio- political scientist Mathias Eric Owona Nguini, from the University of Yaoundé-2.
He adds: “
Structurally, the opposition is too dispersed, it does not have enough means, and its political offer is weakly audible.
»
Nevertheless, the socio-economic situation could be an asset for the opposition.
According to political scientist Joseph Keutcheu, from the University of Dschang, “
It will be necessary to be attentive to the ability of each partisan group to successfully sell its explanatory model of the socio-economic situation of the country.
There will naturally be, on the part of the opposition parties, a work of imputation of the responsibility for the situation to the leading party.
The latter, of course, has already begun to build its line of defense around the harmful effects of an unfavorable international situation and the achievements which are, despite everything, to be credited to the government
”.
Suffice to say that "
in the end, the current socio-economic situation has come, to a certain extent, to open up a game that seemed outrageously to the advantage of the ruling party;
it represents a window of unexpected political opportunities for the opposition parties
”, insists the political scientist.
While waiting for the presidential, legislative and municipal elections scheduled for 2025, observers will draw some lessons from the senatorial elections expected in 2023. No doubt the internal crisis of the Social Democratic Front (SDF) will have revealed its developments.
► To read also: 40 years of Paul Biya in power: the mysteries of the political longevity of the President of Cameroon
Maurice Kamto, Cameroonian opponent, in October 2018. REUTERS / Zohra Bensemra
Newsletter
Receive all the international news directly in your mailbox
I subscribe
Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application
Cameroon
Paul Biya
our selection