American diplomat Richard Haass:

A new address to problems with a new year's look

• European rapprochement with China is indispensable.

  About the "Bundestag"

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Prepared by ■ Emirates Today /

There is a set of lessons that must be learned in order for the world to avoid, as much as possible, the causes that led to the spread of conflicts, the exacerbation of problems, and the ways to solve them. We will mention some of them in the lines of this report.

Not many will miss 2022, a year that has seen an ongoing pandemic, growing climate change, hyperinflation, very slow economic growth, and most of all, a costly war in Europe, and fears that a wave of violent conflict may soon break out in Asia. The opinion of the American diplomat and writer, Richard Haass.

And Haass believes in an article published by the American Council on Foreign Relations that some of these things were expected, but many of them were not expected, and all of them provide us with lessons that we ignore at the expense of all of our safety.

First Lesson

The first lesson is that war between states that not a few academics think is anachronistic is not.

What we are witnessing in Europe is an old imperialist war, in which the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, seeks to eliminate Ukraine as an independent, sovereign entity.

His goal is to ensure that no democracy that seeks close ties with the West can thrive on Russia's borders, and sets an example that might become attractive to the Russians.

Of course, instead of achieving the quick and easy victory he had expected, Putin discovered that his army was not strong enough to do so, and that his opponents were more determined than he and many in the West had anticipated.

Ten months have passed and the war continues with no end in sight.

the second lesson

The second lesson is that the idea of ​​saying that economic interdependence represents a bulwark against war, because no party will have an interest in obstructing trade and investment relations that are beneficial to all parties, is no longer an acceptable idea, as political considerations take priority.

In fact, it is likely that the West's heavy dependence on Russian energy supplies contributed to Putin's decision to invade, believing that Europe would not stand against him.

the third lesson

The third lesson is that the integration that drove decades of Western policy toward China has also failed.

This strategy relied on the belief that economic relations - along with cultural, academic and other relations - would lead to political developments that would push towards the emergence of a more open, market-oriented and more moderate China in its foreign policy.

None of this happened, Haas says, although it can be investigated whether the error was due to the concept of complementarity, or to the way it was applied.

It is something that must be investigated.

What is clear is that China's political system is getting tougher, its economy is moving in a more self-contained direction, and its foreign policy is getting tougher.

Lesson Four

The fourth lesson is that economic sanctions, which in many cases have been the preferred mechanism of the West and its partners in responding to governments' human rights violations or external aggression, have rarely achieved meaningful changes in their behavior.

In the Russian case, he failed to convince most of the world's governments to isolate Moscow politically or economically, and although the sanctions led by the West may weaken Russia's economic base, they did not reach the point of persuading Putin to abandon his policy.

The fifth lesson

The fifth lesson is that there is a need to stop using the phrase "international community". There is no international community.

Russia's veto power in the Security Council rendered the United Nations impotent.

Moreover, there has not been a great deal of global response to the “Covid-19” pandemic, and there is little preparation for dealing with the next pandemic.

Nevertheless, a multilateral approach remains essential, but its effectiveness will depend on narrower arrangements between like-minded governments.

Sixth lesson

The sixth lesson is that democracies obviously face their share of challenges, but the problems that authoritarian regimes face may be even greater.

Ideology and regime survival often drive decision-making in such systems, and authoritarian leaders often refuse to abandon failed policies or admit mistakes, lest this be seen as a sign of weakness and lead to public demands for greater change.

These regimes must always preoccupy themselves with the threat of mass protests, as is the case in Russia, or as we have already seen recently in China and Iran.

Lesson seven

The seventh lesson is that the Internet is more likely to enable individuals to challenge governments in democracies than in closed systems.

Authoritarian regimes like those of China, Russia, and North Korea can shut down their societies, censor or block content, or both.

On the other hand, in democracies, social media is prone to spreading lies and disinformation, which increases polarization and makes governance more difficult.

Lesson eight

The eighth lesson is that there is still a "West" (a term based more on shared values ​​than geography), and alliances are still an important tool for order consolidation.

The United States and its NATO partners have effectively confronted Russia's war against Ukraine.

The United States has also built stronger relations in the Indo-Pacific region to counter the growing threat posed by China, especially through the Quad Alliance (which includes Australia, India, Japan, and the United States) and the Ocos Alliance (which includes Australia and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia). United States, the United States), and increase trilateral cooperation with Japan and South Korea.

Lesson nine

The ninth lesson is that US leadership continues to be essential.

The United States cannot act unilaterally in the world if it wants to be influential, but the world will not unite to face common security challenges and others if the United States is passive or marginalized.

An American willingness to lead from the front, not from the rear, is often needed.

Haas said at the end of his article that we should be modest about what we can know.

It is a matter of humility to say that few of the aforementioned lessons could have been foreseen a year ago.

And what we have learned is not only that history has returned, but also that, for better or worse, it retains its power to surprise us.

With that in mind, let's welcome 2023.

• What we are witnessing in Europe is an old imperialist war, in which the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, seeks to eliminate Ukraine as an independent, sovereign entity.

• Instead of achieving the quick and easy victory he had expected, Putin discovered that his army was not strong enough to do so, and that his opponents were more determined than he and many in the West had expected.

• The idea of ​​saying that economic interdependence represents a bulwark against war, because no party will have an interest in obstructing trade and investment relations that are beneficial to all parties, is no longer an acceptable idea.

• Economic sanctions, which in many cases have been the preferred mechanism of the West and its partners in responding to governments' human rights violations or external aggression, have rarely achieved meaningful changes in their behavior.

• US leadership continues to be essential.

It cannot act unilaterally in the world if it wants to be influential, but the world will not unite to face common security challenges and others if Washington is passive or marginalized.

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