Moscow -

The year 2022 is drawing to a close, as there are no signs of a political solution or a military settlement to the Russian-Ukrainian war that broke out on February 24, contrary to the expectations of most military and political experts.

Since the beginning of the war, Russia entered into the largest geopolitical confrontation with the Western system, and fell under the largest sanctions list in the history of international relations. As for the Russian economy, it was put under pressure affecting all its sectors, according to economists.

The "special military operation" in Ukraine, as Moscow calls it, is the first major military conflict in the past 30 years involving forces using almost the entire arsenal of available means of war on the ground, in the air and in the sky, even excluding nuclear weapons.


A new political approach

In the midst of these facts, a new political and ideological approach emerged in Russia, based on the inevitability of establishing a multipolar international system, after the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 changed the course of the global balance of power, as Moscow did not find a place for itself in the institutions of the Western system. It led to a resounding collapse of the bet of the political elite that managed the country's affairs in the early nineties of the last century, and charted the paths of its foreign relations and economic orientations, which were Western inclined.

With the Russian war in Ukraine entering its tenth month, and it remaining the main topic of discussion among experts in the field of global security, military policy and international relations, the possibilities of the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine are still not visible on the horizon, and its development scenarios have become more likely than ever.


How can the results of the war be evaluated?

The expert in military affairs, Victor Litovkin, believes that the war was punctuated by several surprises, including Ukraine’s acquisition of qualitative Western weapons and military equipment, such as tanks and artillery, especially the American HIMARS system, and “suicidal” drones, which affected, in different stages and regions, the course of military operations. .

Despite Western support for Ukraine, Russia managed - according to the military expert - to achieve the greatest geopolitical success since the collapse of the Soviet Union, represented by the joining of new regions to its political geography, and preventing the Ukrainian forces from making any operational progress that could change the new geographical and demographic reality that led to the erosion of its regions.


What are the expectations for the end of the war?

Litovkin reaffirms that it is too early to give a final assessment of the course of the war or an approximate date for its end, as the Russian leadership has not set a timetable for achieving the slogans it raised as its goals, in addition to that the conflict - and Litovkin's words - is not with Ukraine, but with the Western system that Russia is fighting by proxy.

Although there is no definitive or even approximate answer to this question among most Russian political and military observers, political analyst Alexander Vasiliev is likely to continue military operations until at least 2024, as neither side has the ability in the current circumstances to launch a crushing attack against the opponent. .

Vasiliev believes - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that the West will not enter into a direct conflict with Russia, but will continue to wage a proxy war through Ukraine, by providing it with weapons and military advisors, explaining that the estimates regarding the end of the war depend largely on the exacerbation of the energy crisis in the European continent, which It will sooner or later affect the political decision in Europe, and thus the position of the parties to the war, as he put it.


How will the repercussions of the war on the European interior?

In his answer to this question, Vasiliev does not rule out the occurrence of a political division within the Western system as a result of the expected crisis in Europe in the field of energy, which, according to him, may turn into a crisis of confidence between its components, which may lead to its transformation into a storm of protests and unprecedented unrest sweeping the European street. Especially with the onset of winter.

On the future, he comments, "The outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war will not only determine the future of the two countries, but also the future of European security and the entire international system, as it is a global conflict of a new kind between the major military and economic blocs."

He pointed out that the elements that could affect the future of the war, in addition to the military decision, are the occurrence of a change in the political or military structure (a coup) inside Ukraine, based on the fact that the country is no longer able to continue a long-term war of attrition, and a solution must be reached. Peace agreement with Russia and reset relations with it.


Has the West succeeded in undermining the Russian economy?

Like many Russian experts in the field of economics, the researcher at the Higher School of Economics, Vladimir Olichenko, believes that the West's calculations regarding the destruction of the Russian economy have not been realized, but he does not deny the possibility of a long-term impact of the sanctions on the Russian economy at a minimum, such as the growth rate of the country's gross domestic product. In the long term, which, according to academic estimates, will reach between 1-1.5% annually until 2030.

What Olichenko says coincides with the expectations concluded by the Development Institute of the National Research University about the prospects for economic development until 2030 in conditions of isolation, sanctions and external shocks, which states that the dynamics of household income will be worse than the dynamics of GDP, along with high prices and unemployment rates.

In the context, experts estimate that the share of Russian exports will decrease by an estimated rate of between 5 to 7% by 2030 compared to the current share in GDP, taking into account that the share of exports of goods and services in Russia's GDP has ranged from 25 to 30%, according to to World Bank data.


redirection

Other major long-term risks, which experts warn of, include loss of macroeconomic and social stability, technological backwardness, as well as growing demographic problems.

At the same time, experts point to what can be described as "opportunities" that the sanctions crisis brings, such as redirecting to other sources of imports and export destinations, as well as substituting for imports that are more technologically simple.