New Year is a turning point for everyone.

A mile stone with big and small intentions and expectations.

But the year 2023 means much more for us in Turkey.

The elections coming up in the year of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the republic will be a turning point.

Either the voters will end Erdoğan's twenty-year rule and, after what will probably be a somewhat chaotic normalization phase, the door to democracy will open.

Or Erdoğan will get the people's approval for his autocratic system again and put Turkey on a track from which it will hardly be possible to turn back.

On the Turkish version of the column


Yazının Türkçe orijinalini okumak için tıklayın


The historic election is usually due in June 2023.

But to circumvent a constitutional obstacle, Erdoğan is preparing to bring the election forward by a month.

According to the constitution, a president can only be elected twice in a row.

Since Erdoğan is completing his second term, he cannot run again.

In order to eliminate the discussion about this circumstance, he will urge parliament to hold early elections and thus overturn the ban on running for a third term.

He can't run three times, but he does

As mentioned in a previous letter, Erdoğan recently declared at a rally that he was asking for the citizens' support for the last time.

But five more years don't seem to be enough, because he corrected his statement as follows: "I can't run for office a third time.

But that doesn't mean that Tayyip Erdoğan is retiring from politics."

It is not surprising that the 68-year-old Erdoğan does not want to retire from politics at the age of 73 if he wins the elections.

We know from experience that he will do whatever it takes to keep his seat in the presidential palace.

He will cling to power above all because he is facing one of the most difficult elections for him due to the economic crisis he has plunged the country into.

Things are not looking too rosy for the palace regime. The opposition coalition has agreed to return to the parliamentary system and is poised to win the election.

The six-party alliance formed under the leadership of the largest opposition party, CHP, is pinning high hopes on the presidential and parliamentary elections taking place on the same day.

Erdoğan sees the danger and tries to reverse the situation with populist interventions in the economy and legal in politics.

Let's start with the economy: Since the transition to the presidential system, which is hardly different from a sultanate, the Turkish economy has been going through painful times.

Turkey is no longer a magnet for investors.

The income gap is widening, half of the population has to make do with the minimum wage, and according to official figures inflation is around 85 percent.

So it's only natural that votes for government should dwindle.

The effects of the economic crisis, which are particularly felt by the lower and middle classes, Erdoğan's regular voters, are reflected in almost all polls.