Will China invade Taiwan? : probably "not in the coming months", according to Bruno Tertrais

Europe1 .fr 09:33, December 28, 2022

After the war in Ukraine, this could be the other major international crisis of the coming year.

Relations are increasingly tense between China and Taiwan, with renewed tensions and threats of invasion of the island, in particular through military maneuvers carried out by Beijing at sea, off the Taiwanese coast.

The United States is also following the events with attention and concern.

Despite everything, a "strong possibility for the current decade"

But for Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research and guest of Lionel Gougelot this Wednesday morning on Europe 1, "no one expects China to attack Taiwan in the weeks or months to come, but that remains a very strong possibility for the current decade.”

Since 1949 and the establishment of the People's Republic of China, Taiwan has been independent but continues to apply the constitution of the Republic of China, created in 1912. A status refuted by successive Chinese communist governments.

For the researcher, all these maneuvers “are signs but are not particularly worrying. lets say that Beijing is preparing for a major military operation in Taiwan."

>> Find the 8:13 interview in replay and podcast here

If, in his official speech, the Taiwanese leaders affirm to be ready in the event of a Chinese invasion, for Bruno Tertrais, "we are not in a situation analogous to that of Ukraine in the months preceding the Russian invasion. C "It's normal that Taipei mobilizes the population to prevent this from happening, to deter Beijing and signal to China and the United States that the island is ready to resist".

"Taiwan learns lessons from the war in Ukraine"

For the researcher, an invasion in the coming months seems unlikely but, to deter Beijing, "Taiwan is taking the necessary measures, adapting its army, learning lessons from what is happening in Ukraine and prepare", he underlines at the microphone of Europe 1.

Especially since on the side of China, the leader Xi Jinping continues to "officially consider Taiwan as the 23rd Chinese province. For the Chinese Communist Party, it is out of the question that for the anniversary of the People's Republic in 2049, Taiwan has not fully returned to the bosom of Beijing", specifies Bruno Tertrais.

"Xi Jinping made it a major goal and pushed through a law saying that no matter the means, Taiwan should return to the fold of the motherland."

"On the Beijing side, the question is not whether [Taiwan will reintegrate China, editor's note], but when", concluded the researcher at the microphone of Europe 1.