Moscow

- The war between Russia and Ukraine is entering its eleventh month, and there is still little hope of stopping it through diplomatic solutions, as indicated by the contradictory statements of officials of the two countries regarding their vision to stop the fighting.

However, military experts agree on the difficulty of resolving the war by continuing to fight, at the same time diplomats scramble to put forward ideas and scenarios that could lead to an end to the war.

Since the start of the Russian war on Ukraine on February 24 (Russia calls it a special military operation), Moscow has set its goals to protect the population of the Donbass region, eliminate threats to Russia's security, disarm Ukraine and eliminate "Nazi" tendencies in it.

Moscow says that the West left it no choice but to carry out this process, and that it will complete it to the end, regardless of the time it will take, but, at the same time, it declares its willingness to stop it if Ukraine accepts the Russian conditions and enters into a process of negotiation with it, without preconditions. .


At the same time, Washington has pursued a three-pronged policy since the start of the fighting, represented by providing broad military support to Ukraine, imposing sanctions on Russia, and supporting its military presence in Ukraine's neighboring NATO countries, such as Poland and Romania.

In recent days, the Russian and Ukrainian sides have raised the ceiling of their declared demands for a military solution to the conflict, which suggests that the "appetite" for negotiations is unreal, which unleashes political maneuvers and tactics, in an attempt by the parties to the conflict to improve the negotiating position in the future.

Moscow terms

The Russian conditions for stopping the war revolve around the following basic provisions: Amending the Ukrainian constitution to include renunciation of joining any military bloc.

and the cessation of military operations and the recognition of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia as Russian lands.

As well as the disarmament of all kinds of weapons in Ukraine and the elimination of "Nazism, nationalism and chauvinism" tendencies in it.

Some Russian observers say that the Kremlin's conditions have within them advantages that are not directly mentioned, but they reinforce the basic conditions and give an additional margin for maneuver to the Russian negotiating team.

According to the opinion of the specialist in the affairs of the CIS countries, Yevgeny Isaev, this will be translated through the fulfillment of the following demands:

- Recognizing the sovereignty and independence of the five regions that joined Russia in 2014 and 2022 as constituent parts of the Russian Federation, and thus Kyiv's recognition of the new borders emerging as a result between Russia and Ukraine.

Putin confirmed that his country is ready to negotiate with all parties to the Ukrainian conflict according to "acceptable solutions" (Reuters)

Ukraine's renunciation of the possession and deployment of nuclear weapons and their means of delivery from foreign countries, and refraining from establishing foreign bases on its territory, and establishing this constitutionally.

Not to shoot at nuclear power plants or civilian facilities that use radioactive materials for scientific purposes, and to refrain from acquiring any types of foreign missile defense systems or any hypersonic systems.

Dissolving all "neo-Nazi, ultra-nationalist" groups and formations on the territory of Ukraine, and reducing the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to a total of 50,000 personnel from the ground, air and sea forces.

Denying Ukraine the possibility of launching "a large-scale aggression or attack on neighboring countries, for example, Russia and Belarus."

Ensure that the Ukrainian side pays compensation “to all citizens of the Russian Federation, including the five new oblasts, for loss of life, injury, partial or complete destruction of their homes, as well as critical infrastructure, starting from the end of February 2014.”

Kyiv will pay off all debts and financial, commercial and economic loans that have been borrowed from Russia since 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union.


Washington terms

Publicly, US President Joe Biden's administration says that diplomacy is the only way to end the war once and for all, and until President Vladimir Putin changes his stance, the best way to improve the prospects for a just and lasting peace, and advance the prospects for diplomacy, is to continue to provide strong support to Ukraine.

A few days ago, Congress approved new military and economic aid worth an additional $44.9 billion, in addition to the $50 billion the United States has already sent this year to help Ukraine.

Washington reiterates the necessity of a complete Russian withdrawal from all Ukrainian lands, as stated by Foreign Minister Anthony Blinken at a press conference a few days ago, when he said, "We have the same goals: a free, independent, prosperous and democratic Ukraine, while adhering to the principles of the United Nations Charter, including with regard to territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence.

Biden (right) received his Ukrainian counterpart at the White House last week and confirmed full support for Kiev (Reuters)

However, the prolongation of the war showed a change and confusion in the positions of the Biden administration regarding the conditions for stopping the fighting and ending the war.

Weeks ago, General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stated that there is no military solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and that diplomacy is needed to end it.

The official position of the United States is that Ukraine itself must define the terms of peace and decide when it is ready for dialogue.

While President Biden has revealed that he is open to dialogue with Russian President Putin, provided he makes concrete plans to end his aggression against Ukraine, Biden also vowed to hold Russia accountable for the "atrocities and war crimes" committed in Ukraine.

Senior Biden administration officials repeat that only Ukraine is free to make any decision regarding war, peace and negotiation.

However, the reality is more complex, with the Ukrainian side relying almost entirely on American equipment, weapons, aid, and intelligence information.

Biden endorsed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's "10-point peace plan", which calls for, among other things, the complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian soil and the establishment of a special court to prosecute Russian war crimes, terms Russia has categorically rejected.

In secret, US officials are considering, according to observers, what the conditions for stopping the fighting might look like, far from what President Biden says that it is up to Ukrainian President Zelensky to "decide how he wants the war to end", a saying that ignores the fact that without US support there is no The Ukrainian army can hold out on the front lines, which leaves many unanswered questions.