Istanbul -
The year 2022 was not normal in Turkey. The electoral competition that started early changed the positions of many political parties, and the Justice and Development Party was no exception, especially in the field of foreign policy, which witnessed a kind of zeroing out of crises with Arab countries (Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE), while it remained Relations with Damascus are at a standstill with the escalation of the Syrian refugee crisis in Turkey.
In light of the transformation of the entire Syrian file into an electoral card par excellence in Turkish political life, normalization between Ankara and the Syrian regime has become a major item on the party's agenda, but normalization that requires a common desire on both sides of the border is hindered by deep obstacles and differences, and a feverish movement awaits it in 2023, so do you have Russia key?
Turkish desire and mutual terms
In the first official declaration of Turkey's intentions to normalize relations with the Syrian regime, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu called on August 11 to "achieve reconciliation between the Syrian regime and the opposition in some way."
However, he reaffirmed that he did not use the phrase "reconciliation" between the Syrian regime and the opposition, but rather said that "a settlement to the crisis must be reached."
The Turkish minister revealed that he had held a "rapid meeting" with his Syrian counterpart Faisal Al-Miqdad, on the sidelines of the "Non-Aligned Movement" meeting, in October 2021, in the first diplomatic contact between Ankara and Damascus since 2011.
Several statements were made by Turkish officials, which revealed Turkey's desire for normalization, and to transfer the contacts currently underway between the two sides at the level of the intelligence agencies to higher levels.
Media reports reported mutual conditions between the two parties, as Ankara stipulated that Damascus should proceed seriously in the path of a political settlement with the opposition, prepare the ground for the return of refugees, and abandon support for the Kurdish People's Protection Units, which stressed the need for the withdrawal of Turkish forces, which it considers "occupation forces" from Syrian territory. before starting any conversation.
Erdogan's meeting with Assad
While the mutual terms faced a dead end, the statements moved, as of last September, to talk about a meeting involving President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with the head of the Syrian regime, Bashar al-Assad, and the Turkish president confirmed that he had made this proposal to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.
While the Turkish side expressed a desire to hold the meeting before the next elections, al-Assad praised for the first time - according to what was reported by the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar - the Turkish position, but demanded practical positions.
The year ended with Moscow announcing a conference to combat terrorism, which is expected to bring Turkey and the Syrian regime together at one table during 2023.
It seems that the announcement by the Speaker of the State Duma (the Russian parliament) Vyacheslav Volodin, during his presence in Ankara on December 13, of the participation of Turkey and the Syrian regime in a conference to be held to combat terrorism is the gateway that will open the door to a meeting between Erdogan and Assad.
And since Volodin did not announce the level of representation in the conference or its timing, analysts believe that the meeting will be at the level of heads of parliaments, given the position of the Russian official.
The first step
Both Turkey and the Syrian regime have repeatedly announced that security contacts and discussions between the two sides have not been interrupted. However, the meeting under the title of combating terrorism will require additional ad hoc discussions dealing with the agenda of the meeting, and therefore the timing announcement may not be issued before the security delegations are able to reach preliminary understandings. All of this will depend on the conditions that the Syrian side will propose and the extent of Ankara's willingness to meet them.
Erdogan had confirmed, in conjunction with the Russian announcement of the idea of the conference, that the path of normalization had begun through contacts at the level of the intelligence agencies, and that it would be gradually advanced through the foreign ministers and a summit.
Gradient or smooth?
Erdogan’s talk about the gradual lifting of contacts may not mean that normalization will inevitably pass through a completely gradual path. The first step represented in holding a meeting at the level of parliament speakers may be a sufficient preparation for moving to the level of presidents, especially since Moscow will be ready to take advantage of any occasion to arrange a meeting on the sidelines. Or a handshake similar to Erdogan's handshake to Sisi, and the Turkish president does not hide his keenness to hold this meeting before the June 2023 elections.
contentious issues
Controversial issues are the second and perhaps the main obstacle that impedes the path of normalization. Ankara wants - according to official statements - a political settlement in Syria that would provide an acceptable cover for the return of relations that were severed more than 10 years ago. It is also betting on facilitating the return of refugees by giving them guarantees that the regime will not harm them. , whether in terms of the applicable laws or in terms of security dealings.
As for the Syrian regime, it wants Turkey to withdraw its forces from northern Syria, to hand over the areas that are still under the control of opposition factions amid Turkish protection, and to take practical steps indicating Ankara's abandonment of support for the Syrian opposition.
Unsolvable and intractable issues
Most of the conditions put forward by the two parties seem impossible for each of them, as Turkey has repeatedly declared that it will not withdraw its forces from Syria before reaching a final and comprehensive solution to the Syrian crisis, and before addressing all its security concerns.
As for the Syrian regime, it does not seem ready to bear the return of millions of refugees, most of whom are hostile to it, neither economically nor security-wise.
And if there are concessions that Turkey can make to the regime in terms of supporting the opposition, the regime may also find in the fight against terrorism what it can offer to Turkey, as both Ankara and Damascus view what is known as the Syrian Democratic Forces as a common enemy, and a cover for the US military presence. in the north-east of the country.
It is clear that the year 2023 will witness more steps of rapprochement between Turkey and the Syrian regime, but it is not possible to say for sure what will happen and answer several questions:
Will the two sides be satisfied with fixing the level of contacts at the level acceptable to each of them, or will they show greater enthusiasm for a more comprehensive normalization?
Will they be able to resolve contentious issues, or will they be satisfied with what is solvable?
What role will Russia have in the whole process?
Can it proceed smoothly without the objection of any of the regional or international actors in Syria?