Switching from it will not be easy

Europe is learning to live without Russian energy

• Schultz opens the first floating LNG terminal.

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• Turbines to generate electricity in the Netherlands.

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During the past week, the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and senior German officials visited the port of Wilhelmshaven in northern Germany, to inaugurate the first floating terminal for storing liquefied natural gas in Germany.

It is the first of its kind among five stations that are scheduled to be established in ports on the North and Baltic seas, and it is part of Germany’s strategy to survive this winter, the next, and beyond, without the need to import Russian gas, which Germany and many European Union countries have become. depend on him.

"It's a good day for our country and a good signal to the world that the German economy will be in good shape, produce and deal with these challenges," Schulz said.

He added, "When we said, for example, that such a station should be built here in (Wilhelmshaven) this year, many claimed that this was not possible, and that we would not succeed in that, and the opposite was true."

Since the war in Ukraine, about 10 months ago, European countries, such as Germany, have learned the hard way: how to live without Russian energy.

From the beginning, Russia sought to weaponize Europe's dependence on Russian energy, with the aim of weakening the united front of the European Union and supporting Ukraine, but failed.

And when Russia stopped the flow of gas from Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline last September, European Union leaders warned that this would lead to a major crisis in the Union, and a number of Union countries, including Germany, rushed to take measures to reduce energy use, and urged citizens to do so.

However, high energy prices and hyperinflation caused great pressure on the pockets of Europeans, and on corporate profits.

Ben Cahill, an expert at the Center for International Strategic Studies, said: “It is not easy to shift quickly from what you have depended on for decades.

But Europe managed to prepare reasonably for the winter and quickly.

Next is harsher

“Next winter will be much harsher, given that EU countries will have to start consuming energy without needing Russia at all,” Cahill added.

This means refilling gas tanks next summer without flows of cheap Russian gas.

"The biggest challenge will be what happens in the coming years, because things are going to be much tougher," Cahill said.

The shift away from Russian energy has its costs

This does not mean that this winter will be easy, as the rapid shift away from Russian energy has had its costs, both for households and companies struggling to keep pace with high energy prices, in addition to countries issuing bailout packages to help consumers and merchants to be able to cover their bills.

And if the winter is very cold, it may lead to higher energy use, which erodes savings more quickly and renews fears of potential shortages.

The head of Germany's Federal Network Agency organization, Klaus Müller, warned that such use should "remain strange".

He said, "We have taken good precautions, but we need to remain vigilant." However, this situation forced European Union leaders to intervene and act quickly to fill the gap resulting from the halt in imports from Russia.

They turned their attention to the ways in which the war affects and, in other respects, helped achieve the EU's long-term energy goals.

Positive aspects of the Ukraine war

European Union leaders said that this war has some positive aspects in terms of drawing the attention of the Union to work in the field of renewable energy.

Countries that previously refused to engage in this field are now working in it, and those that were working in it in the first place have increased the volume of their investments in it.

The European Union agreed to increase its renewable energy targets by 45% by 2030 this week, up from 40% previously.

A report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency indicates that the world will increase its interest in renewable energy during the next five years, to the same extent as it has during the past two decades.

"I think this war in Ukraine will change a lot of things, and we will quickly get rid of fossil fuels," said Timo Volkin, a member of the European Union from the center-left Social Democratic Party.

But you can't make silver without getting some dross.

In efforts to replace Russian energy in the near term, some countries, such as Germany, will restart some coal-fired power plants to fill the energy gap caused by not importing Russian energy.

France, Austria, the Netherlands and Italy will also restart coal-fired power plants.

And the countries of the European Union are negotiating with countries, such as Qatar, to obtain energy.

“If we continue to buy gas with the same contracts until 2030, we will have more gas than we used to buy from Russia, which will negatively affect the policy of concern for climate change,” said the deputy head of the “Greenlink” (Dutch green party) in the European Parliament. and reduce fossil fuel emissions.

The Europeans agree to support Ukraine

All this controversy raises the question: “What will the coordinated efforts of European countries to compensate for the import of Russian gas mean for the Kremlin’s strategy?

Support for Ukraine remains significant.

The Eurobarometer poll this month indicated that 74 percent of those who participated in it approved of Europe's efforts to support Ukraine.

There are some sporadic protests in some countries, such as Hungary, which is still courting Russian energy.

But it seems that the Kremlin will not be able to weaken support for Ukraine, using energy weapons.

What tools can he use against him?

"It's too early to say what that could mean for Russia's strategy going forward, on the one hand, because the next round of sanctions on Russia's exports won't go into effect until the beginning of February 2023. And if Russia retaliates by further cutting supplies," Cahill said. Energy for Europe, it punishes countries that need it most, like Turkey and China.

Cahill added, "It would be like someone punishing himself, but all possibilities are possible."

• The rapid shift away from Russian energy has had its costs, both for households and businesses struggling to keep up with rising energy prices, as well as for countries issuing bailout packages to help consumers and merchants cover their bills.

• The leaders of the European Union said that this war has some positive aspects in terms of drawing the attention of the Union to work in the field of renewable energy.

• A very cold winter might lead to higher energy use, which erodes savings more quickly and renews fears of potential shortages.

 • A report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency indicates that the world will increase its interest in renewable energy during the next five years.

Emily Schultheise ■ Freelance journalist specializing in Europe and based in Berlin

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