Introduction to translation

Over the course of more than ten months of the war, Ukraine has proven its ability to withstand the superior Russian military machine, and it has even succeeded, thanks to Western support, in turning the course of battles in its favor in many cases, but Kyiv is about to face the biggest challenge when winter invades Europe and the effects begin. Russian bombing of Ukrainian infrastructure and power grids to emerge.

At that time, the Ukrainians will have to face the cold, bullets, and perhaps hunger together. Will the cold decide the battle that the missiles and weapons failed to resolve?

Translation text

Since mid-October, Russia has been targeting civilian infrastructure across Ukraine, wiping out vital sectors of the Ukrainian economy.

For his part, Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who recently took charge of Russian forces in Ukraine and was so ruthless that his colleagues called him "General Armageddon," was unwilling to back his ruthlessness.

Russia has attacked 40% of the Ukrainian electricity grid after using a mixture of guided missiles and Iranian drones, as it bombed energy facilities, including hydroelectric dams, and left more than a million Ukrainians without electricity, while 80% of the population lives in Kyiv without water. , according to the city's mayor.

Hence, economists expect the rate of contraction of the Ukrainian economy to reach 35% for this year (2022).

Gen. Sergey Surovikin (left), who recently took charge of Russian forces in Ukraine and was so ruthless that his colleagues call him "General Armageddon," has shown no willingness to reverse his ruthlessness.

(Reuters)

For Western countries, the current wave of Russian attacks must recall similar events from their recent history.

The Soviet leader "Joseph Stalin" besieged the western part of Berlin in 1948, as the United States and its allies controlled the west of the German capital at that time, and this was part of Stalin's plan to tighten control over all of Germany in the end (and the exclusion of the Western presence)*.

The Soviets at the time cut off all access to the city through railways, water canals and roads, which created enormous suffering in West Berlin, but soon the United States and Britain responded to the Berlin blockade with what was known as the "Berlin Airlift", which airlifted food and coal. and other necessities to the besieged city.

In doing so, the two countries succeeded in thwarting the ruthless scheme of the Soviets, and by 1949, Stalin lifted the blockade, and the Federal Republic of Germany was established in the same month.

Kyiv.. Lawyers, missiles and money are required

The money the West sends to Ukraine is just as important as the weapons systems that are sent to it.

Without the injection of $8.5 billion from Washington, Ukraine would have gone bankrupt overnight.

Thanks to this financial aid, Ukraine's banking system, railways and hospitals continue to function. After eight months of war, Kyiv is still paying state salaries and pensions on time, but it faces a budget deficit ranging between 5-6 billion dollars per month, which forced the Ministry of Finance to make everything it can to ensure that state services are not threatened.

For its part, the European Union has committed to sending loans worth $9 billion in May 2022, but has been dragging its feet in sending the final tranche of $3 billion, which is likely to arrive next year.

The overt pledges of Western countries to Ukraine are there, but they seem to lack willpower, as withholding or slowing money transfers raises the risk of hyperinflation igniting in Ukraine.

The lack of money in the central bank prompted the resort to increasing the money supply by issuing billions of government bonds, and then the value of the country's currency, the "hryvna", decreased, and the inflation rate rose in September to nearly 25%, which is inflation that makes it more difficult for the country to survive. The Ukrainian state is standing on its feet, let alone successfully continuing the war.

The European Union is considering transferring another $18 billion during 2023, but whether or not this will be implemented is not clear, as there is a clear difference between what Germany promised publicly and what it has provided so far.

The support pledged by the European Union, plus a potential injection of $10 billion in new funds over the next two years from the International Monetary Fund, would help bridge Kyiv's immediate funding gap of several billion per month.

For his part, the US Congress and President Joe Biden, since the start of the conflict, have regularly sent vital defense and financial packages, although it has been more difficult than before to maintain these aids after the US midterm elections (with the more conservative Republicans supporting Ukraine in control of the House of Representatives). *.

As Ukraine enters winter and the country goes into the dark without electricity, support from the United States is already waning.

Almost all Republicans in the House voted in September against a funding bill that would send $12 billion to Ukraine.

He warned, "Kevin McCarthy," the Republican leader in the House, that he refused to provide a "blank check" to Ukraine.

And at a campaign rally in the state of "Iowa" last November, a Republican representative declared, saying: "Not another penny will go to Ukraine, because our country has priority."

In fact, a Wall Street Journal poll indicates that a majority of Americans still support aid to Ukraine, but the number of Republicans who think America is giving too much support has risen to 48%.

Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader in the House of Representatives, warned that he refused to offer Ukraine a "blank check".

Some Republicans, such as Victoria Spartz, have raised the issue of corruption in Kyiv.

(AFP)

Some Republicans, such as Victoria Spartz, the Ukrainian-born Indiana congresswoman, have raised the issue of corruption in Kyiv.

There is no doubt that the Ukrainian government has a long history of misappropriating public money, but during the war it worked hard to fix this.

For example, the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance opened its arms to the financial advisory firm Deloitte.

Auditors from the company have been integrated into the Ukrainian ministry for months, and they oversee money transfers, making sure they are sent to their destination without embezzlement.

Winter 2023.. The cold is sometimes harsher than bullets

Money is not the only problem facing Kyiv. Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure have left most of the country without electricity.

The government has asked its citizens voluntarily to turn off the electricity and has implemented a series of blackout measures, which has reduced the demand for power plants so that they can be better repaired.

When Russia launched a barrage of missile strikes on Oct. 10 in retaliation for the bombing of the Kerch Strait that connects Crimea with Russia, Kyiv residents rushed to the gas stations to fill up their tanks.

“Putin should not use nuclear weapons to cause a catastrophe,” Victoria Wojtysitska, the former chair of the Verkhovna Rada’s energy committee, said during an interview with Foreign Affairs in October in Washington, DC. Saying- protect the heating systems of Ukraine.

Wojcietyska urges the West to send air defense systems to Kyiv as soon as possible. The devastation caused by Russia since mid-October is massive, and half of the population of Chernihiv (a city in northern Ukraine) lacks water because it requires electricity to pump and deliver it to their homes.

Oksana Necheporenko, a Ukrainian civil society leader, said that Ukrainians do not panic, but her friends who are mothers are looking for safe places in Ukraine to live during the winter for the sake of their children.

In the city of "Kryvyi Rih", the birthplace of President Zelensky in central Ukraine, Moscow has repeatedly hit a dam, forcing residents to evacuate their homes for fear of flooding in the area.

In Zaporozhye, in the southeast, heating is no longer available in half of the city, so Wojciechka urged donors to invest in "heating shelters", which are safe rooms in cities and towns where residents can stay for a period of the day when temperatures drop. Heat and no heating or electricity is available.

She also expressed her concern about what would happen if Russian missiles hit hospitals, as patients might be left to freeze to death, which are real fears. In March, for example, 300 Ukrainians died of freezing in Chernihiv.

In the short term, the West can help Ukraine repair its electrical grid.

Indeed, Lithuania sends technical spare parts to repair Ukrainian power plants, but many of the parts necessary to repair the stations require a long wait, so Western countries can urge companies that produce them, such as the German company "Siemens", to put Kyiv at the top of the waiting list.

But even if some of Ukraine's heating systems are fixed, Moscow can attack them again and again. According to investigative journalism platform Bellingcat, a secret military unit of 33 engineers based in Moscow very carefully directs the Kremlin's raids targeting civilian infrastructure. in Ukraine.

Energy and humans on the battlefield

(Anadolu Agency)

It seems clear that the Kremlin hopes to turn the immigrant card into a weapon in its hand through bombing campaigns, which in turn could lead to new waves of displacement to Poland or anywhere else in the winter.

This would be a scheme to stir up political instability in Europe and boost the presence of far-right parties mostly sympathetic to Putin.

For example, German cities are already struggling to absorb the influx of more than a million Ukrainian refugees, and the current migrant crisis is the largest Europe has seen since the end of World War II.

Ultimately, the best way to protect Ukraine's energy systems and civilian population is to send air defense systems to Kyiv.

Five months ago, Germany pledged to send four air defense systems, but only one of them has been delivered, which is the IRIS-T air defense system, which provides medium-range and high-altitude protection for small cities, and the rest are expected to be delivered this year. The next year is 2023. The situation is that the air defense systems are complex, expensive, and have a great demand. Kyiv has officially asked Israel to provide it with a number of these defense systems.

For its part, the United States is trying to accelerate the delivery of two advanced surface-to-air missile systems, in addition to six other systems that will arrive at a later date.

While Putin seeks to force Ukraine into submission, it is advancing on the battlefield, and its soldiers' morale remains high. But to survive the winter of 2023, the country will need bread and butter as much as it needs guns.

European gas storage facilities exceed 90% capacity today, which has ensured a relatively low fuel price in Europe.

Putin's efforts to put pressure on Europe regarding energy have failed so far, just as his military adventures have faltered, but Putin still hopes that Western public opinion will tire of the conflict, and then push European governments to accept his demands.

However, failure in Ukraine in Washington's eyes simply means confronting Putin again on a new European battlefield, and therefore many Western analysts believe that rushing to support Ukraine means aborting Putin's ambition sooner rather than later.

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Translated by: Karim Mohamed

This report is translated from Foreign Affairs and does not necessarily reflect Meydan's website.