The year 2022 witnessed fluctuations that affected the global energy market, and its effects may extend to next year as well.

This is due to several reasons, the most prominent of which is the Russian war on Ukraine and its transition to a new stage and the subsequent obstacles to transportation and financing, high inflation rates, and fears of economic recession.

performance balance

Some oil experts believe that the performance of OPEC and the OPEC Plus group was excellent and balanced through realism and elaborate studies that have proven their worth, in addition to tight production schedules that are compatible with the need for demand.

The oil expert, Dr. Abdul Samie Behbehani, indicates that the OPEC alliance was at its best in global energy management, as it proved its realism in fully controlling the geopolitical differences of its members, and that the allied countries followed flexibility in taking into account sanctions on some members in modernizing their production ceiling and balancing with some. The rebates you give are outside the official price range.

Dr. Abdul Samie Behbehani: The OPEC alliance was at its best in managing the global energy file (Kuwaiti press)

faltering pressures

As for the great American pressure exerted on OPEC members, during the current year, to influence the organization's decisions to raise oil production, Behbehani believes that these pressures represent only the opinion of the Democratic Party, which is currently dominant in a small percentage, and is obstructive and contradictory to the Republican Party.

Therefore - Behbehani says - pressures falter in their effectiveness because they are in conflict with the major American companies.

Among the expected pressures for the US administration are repeated projects for more than 20 years, such as the application of the “NOPEC” monopoly law or the so-called “No Oil Production and Export Cartel” (NOPEC) law, which is applied to US companies, and which is intended to remove sovereignty from countries. oil-producing law, which is still bogged down in congressional committees.

direct challenges

As for Kuwait's approval of OPEC's decisions to reduce production against the American desire, Behbehani believes that Kuwait, as an observer of oil activity, faces a direct challenge.

He adds in his interview with "Al-Jazeera Net" that there is a slowdown in the process of operating the three Kuwaiti refineries at maximum capacity, despite the world's need for it, and this "makes me believe that Kuwait, with the growth of demand to 2045, will lose more than 50% of the opportunity available to it in investment."

Diesel derivatives - adds the same speaker - are the beating heart of transportation, which occupies about 60% of transportation consumption.


Chinese American rivalry

Expectations vary regarding the performance of OPEC and the OPEC Plus alliance in the next year 2023 in the face of the pressure exerted by the United States. Inflation indicators that globally reached between 9 and 10% indicate an upcoming recession in Europe in particular and will affect the countries of the organization.

Here, the oil expert, Behbehani, believes that this stagnation benefits China and the United States, because the logical expectations of China indicate that the opening of all Chinese cities and ports is close to ending the project to zero the Corona epidemic and open cities and ports, and therefore it will go to the maximum cases of economic growth and demand for fuel, and it will be This is a trend for the "OPEC alliance" in exporting energy to Beijing. As for Europe, it relies on what the United States exports, which has limited energy in export operations to it. The United States will also be in a state of competition with China in increasing its economic growth, and the signs of this race have emerged. Especially in terms of employment rates, which approached 3%.

Balanced and harmonious performance

As for the oil expert, Kamel Al-Harami, he believes that the performance of “OPEC Plus” was balanced, and contributes to making the organization maintain the stability of the price of a barrel of oil, and that the rate is consensual in favor of the oil organization and the oil producing and exporting countries that believe that the appropriate price for a barrel of oil currently ranges between 80 and 90. dollars and nothing less.

Al-Harami said in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net, "We cannot say that OPEC Plus is a political or economic alliance, but rather it is a mixture between a political and economic alliance because it benefits the two organizations, but there must be a kind of neutrality...".

As for the entry of OPEC countries into the OPEC Plus alliance, Al-Harami believes that it helped stabilize oil prices and maintain appropriate rates for the producing countries in the world, by reducing or increasing production.

Kamel Al-Harami: The OPEC Plus group helped stabilize oil prices (Kuwaiti press)

2022 is an extension of 2023

As for performance expectations in 2023, Kamel Al-Harami believes that next year will be an extension of 2022, but there may be a greater kind of pressure on supplies, which may be offset by an inability to meet demand.

And he believes that the increase in global oil demand to the limits of 100 million barrels per day with the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war;

It will lead to the cohesion of crude prices and the balance of production among the oil-producing countries in the organization.

It is noteworthy that OPEC was established in 1960, and currently includes 13 oil-exporting countries. As for the “OPEC Plus” group, it is an alliance, established in November 2016, between the member states of “OPEC” and 10 oil-producing countries outside the organization, led Russia to secure the stability of the global oil market.