China News Service, December 23 (Reporter Meng Xiangjun) Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis in February 2022, Ukrainian President Zelensky left his country for the first time and visited the United States, which attracted attention.
What kind of assistance did Zelensky get during this trip?
Why did the United States facilitate this visit?
Why did Russian President Putin suddenly support the expansion of the military to 1.5 million?
How will the situation in Ukraine evolve as the arms race intensifies?
Behind the series of questions, there is a great mystery...
Lightning visit to the United States, "unusual"
It can be said that the arrangement of Zelensky's visit to the United States is very unusual.
On December 21, local time, U.S. President Biden met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was invited to visit, at the White House.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Mengtong
First, the visit arrangement is unusual.
This is the first time that Zelensky has left Ukraine to visit other countries since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis in February 2022.
Regarding Zelensky's visit, CNN previously described it as "a dramatic surprise visit".
This is not a "state visit" that was pre-announced to the outside world. The media got wind of it, but it was not confirmed.
After Zelensky himself set off, he "synchronized" the itinerary to the whole world on social media.
Second, the way of visiting is unusual.
In order for Zelensky to arrive in the United States safely, the United States and NATO have taken great care.
According to comprehensive foreign media reports, Zelensky first secretly departed from Ukraine by train to Poland, where he boarded a C-40B aircraft of the U.S. Air Force and headed to Andrews Air Force Base on the outskirts of Washington.
NATO also sent a Boeing airborne early warning aircraft to the European North Sea area where Zelensky's plane passed, and another US F-15 fighter jet also departed from the United Kingdom to jointly escort it.
The C-40B aircraft primarily transports U.S. combatant commanders and senior government officials.
A few months ago, Pelosi, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, was flying on this type of plane.
NATO surveillance plane escorts Zelenskiy to the United States.
Image source: Screenshot of the British "Daily Telegraph" report
Third, the content of the itinerary is not simple.
Not only taking a U.S. military plane, but also speaking at the U.S. Congress, receiving the American flag as a gift, and exchanging military souvenirs with the U.S. president... Zelensky’s trip seems to have been fruitful.
On December 21, local time, US President Biden met with Zelensky at the White House.
Zelensky presented Biden with a Ukrainian Military Cross from a Ukrainian officer in the frontline High Mobility Multiple Launch Rocket System (HIMARS) team, which the United States provided to Ukraine.
Biden then gave Zelensky two command coins from the U.S. battlefield in Iraq, where his late son Beau Biden fought.
On December 21, local time, Zelensky held the American flag presented by the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Pelosi.
Speaking to the U.S. Congress, Zelensky thanked his "hosts" and called for more aid and continued sanctions against Russia.
He also presented Congress with a Ukrainian flag signed by soldiers from the frontier city of Bakhmut in Uzbekistan, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi returned an American flag in a triangular box.
And what is the significance of showing all this?
Winning cross-party support is more important than "seeing Biden"
"Zelensky's visit to the United States is a diplomatic activity jointly designed by the United States and Ukraine," Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told a reporter from Chinanews.com when talking about this matter.
After the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, Zelensky chose the United States for his first overseas visit, which actually showed his determination to pro-Western diplomacy.
Zhang Hong believes that the purpose of Zelensky's visit is threefold.
First, seek to expand military aid.
According to US media, Zelensky's visit is mainly for offensive weapons.
There are rumors that the United States may provide more advanced weapons such as tanks and fighter jets in 2023.
Second, push the U.S. Congress to approve aid.
Recently, the U.S. Congress will approve the budget for the new fiscal year 2023. It is expected that Zelensky's visit will prompt Congress to increase the scale and quality of military aid and economic aid.
Third, consolidate the relationship with the US ally and urge increased sanctions against Russia.
On December 21, local time, U.S. President Biden met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was invited to visit, at the White House.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Mengtong
In fact, foreign media pointed out that the core purpose of Zelensky's visit is to speak in the US Congress to win continuous cross-party support, which is "more important than meeting Biden."
After the mid-term elections in the United States, the House of Representatives fell into the hands of the Republican Party. From January 2023, the Republican Party will control the House of Representatives.
As the Republican Party wants to conduct stricter scrutiny of the Ukrainian aid bill, it is expected that the Biden administration will face greater resistance.
Some Republicans have expressed doubts and opposition to the United States' continued support for Ukraine.
Although Pelosi of the Democratic Party is keen to support Ukraine, she is about to step down. The popular successor for the speaker of the House of Representatives, McCarthy, the Republican leader of the House of Representatives, has already stated that the Republican Party will not write a "blank check" for aid to Ukraine.
It has to be said that Zelensky's visit was to gain support at the "last moment", because before December 23 local time, the US Congress must pass the US government's fiscal year 2023 spending bill, otherwise the government may face a shutdown.
Real gold and silver, how much can you get?
How much actual support has Zelensky won?
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken recently announced a new round of large-scale military aid to Ukraine, amounting to $1.85 billion. This will bring the total U.S. military aid to Ukraine to $21.9 billion since Biden became president.
The United States will provide Ukraine with the "Patriot" air defense missile system for the first time.
The system can shoot down cruise missiles, short-range ballistic missiles and also defend against aircraft flying at much higher altitudes than before.
Data map: "Patriot-3" air defense missile.
The new aid package announced by Washington also includes 500 pieces of 155mm high-precision artillery ammunition, 37 Cougar armored vehicles, land mines, thousands of grenade launchers and small arms, optics and night vision equipment, body armor, satellite communications equipment and other equipment, etc.
In addition, USAID will provide Uzbekistan with $374 million in humanitarian assistance in the form of food aid, basic necessities and financial support.
Of course, what is most anticipated in the "money scene" is the US government's fiscal year 2023 spending bill.
According to US media reports, the total value of this bill is approximately US$1.7 trillion, including US$45 billion in aid to Ukraine.
How do you plan to distribute the huge sum of 45 billion U.S. dollars?
About 9 billion U.S. dollars will be used to train the Ukrainian army, provide equipment and intelligence support, etc.
$6.98 billion for U.S. European Command mission and intelligence support, pay, equipment, and related activities
The rest of the funds are used to supplement the U.S. weapons stockpile, as well as humanitarian and economic assistance to Ukraine
Having said that, how much real money can this huge sum of money be spent on Ukraine?
The media has previously exposed that American politicians and arms dealers will "make a fortune" from it.
On the 21st local time, Zelensky presented a Ukrainian flag signed by Ukrainian soldiers to the U.S. Congress.
At the same time, another question may be explained: Zelensky’s “adventure” visit, why didn’t he choose the EU, which is closer and also aids Ukraine?
Brett, a co-researcher at the European think tank Jacques Delors Institute and an expert on Eastern Europe-Russia issues at Sciences Po in Paris, pointed out that this shows that in Zelensky's view, US aid, especially military aid, is obviously more important and more important than the EU. decisive.
"I think it's a bit unfair to our European allies," Brett said.
But at the same time, he believes that Zelensky will also express to the EU in the future to ensure Europe's continued support.
Zhang Hong pointed out that the United States has put diplomatic pressure on European countries on the issue of aid to Ukraine, which will prompt more European countries to provide more advanced weapons and more economic assistance to Ukraine.
With little hope for peace talks, Putin made a big move
Zelensky's political adviser Podolyak believes that Zelensky's visit is also intended to dispel the notion that Uzbekistan-U.S. relations have "cold".
"The United States clearly supports Ukraine," he stressed.
Foreign media noticed that US officials revealed that Biden will not use this meeting to ask Zelensky to negotiate with Russian President Putin.
Regarding this point, Kremlin spokesman Peskov also ruled out the possibility of resuming talks between Russia and Ukraine.
He warned in recent days that Ukraine continues to receive weapons supplies and the range of weapons types is also expanding. "All these will lead to intensified conflicts, which is not a good thing for Ukraine."
Data map: Russian President Vladimir Putin (middle) and Russian Defense Minister Shoigu (left) observe the military exercise.
On December 21, when Zelensky visited the United States, Putin hosted an enlarged meeting of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
At this year-end meeting with top Russian military leaders, Putin announced several major events:
First, Russia will complete the set tasks of special military operations in Ukraine to ensure the security of all Russian territories.
Second, NATO countries are actively opposing Russia, and the Russian military needs to expand its arsenal.
Third, Putin supports Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu's military expansion proposal, increasing the combatants of the Russian army from 1.15 million to 1.5 million, an increase of more than 30%.
Fourth, Russia will maintain and improve the "nuclear trinity" combat readiness.
There are 14 missiles placed in front of a Russian Tu-95MS bomber.
Image source: Russian Ministry of Defense
Putin also revealed that Russian warships will be equipped with Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles in early January 2023, and the "Sarmat" intercontinental ballistic missile will also begin combat duty in the near future.
In general, Zhang Hong pointed out that both Russia and the West have increased their investment in Ukraine, making it difficult to break the military stalemate and balance between Russia and Ukraine.
In the coming 2023, the military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine and the arms race between Russia and NATO will continue, and it will still be very difficult to resume peace talks in the short term.
Zhang Hong believes that Russia and NATO are speeding up military forward deployment and forming a military confrontation in Europe.
The protracted nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict means that Russia must increase investment in national defense, accelerate the modernization of military equipment, and make up for shortcomings in technology and equipment in order to cope with NATO's squeeze and containment at the strategic level.
The "Trinity" nuclear force refers to a country's ability to simultaneously possess three nuclear strike methods: land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and strategic bombers.
Zhang Hong said that Putin's announcement to maintain the "Trinity" nuclear combat readiness indicates that the military confrontation between Russia and NATO has become fixed.
In the future, the "new cold war" situation in Europe will be strengthened.
(use up)