The American “National Interest” website highlighted 10 risks that it said are the most important that the world may face in 2023, relying on the predictions of researchers Matthew Burroughs and Robert Manning, specialists for years in forecasting global risks and trends in the National Intelligence Council of the US intelligence community.
Burroughs and Manning, who are senior fellows in the Reimagining Grand American Strategy Program at the Stimson Center, say that their predictions for the probability of each risk are divided into low, higher than low, medium, higher than average, and high, and they indicated that the medium probability means the chance of the risk occurring by 50/ 50.
However, these two experts believe that making such forecasts has become more difficult, because many risks are intertwined with each other, and they refer - in this regard - to the term polycrisis, which is the term used to describe the interlocking nature of one crisis that is rooted in other crises.
An example of this is the Ukraine war, which sheds light on the current set of interrelated crises facing the world, including the exacerbation of the food crisis due to Ukraine's inability to export grain, the energy crisis rooted in Western efforts to deprive the Russian war machine of its profits, and the retaliation of Russian President Vladimir Putin by cutting off gas supplies On Europe, increased inflation due to higher energy and food prices, which is also linked to supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic.
The researchers summarized the risks as follows:
A multifaceted crisis stemming from the Ukraine war. How and when the war in Ukraine will end remains a mystery.
However, the multifaceted crisis cycle cascading from the war - energy and food insecurity, inflation and economic slowdown - may generate "Ukraine fatigue" in the West, threatening vital subsidies.
War also generates multiple interrelated risks of continuous and stalled conflict.
an escalation if the United States or NATO sends additional advanced weapons to Kyiv in response to Putin's bombing;
Russia's use of nuclear weapons;
And a division between America and the European Union over the quantity and quality of military assistance to continue providing it to Kyiv.
And the probability of the expected danger here - as seen by the researchers - is higher than the average.
Growing food insecurity: The World Food Program has highlighted a “ring of fire” of hunger and malnutrition that stretches across the world from Central America and Haiti to North Africa, the Sahel, Ghana, Central African Republic and South Sudan, then east to the Horn of Africa, Syria and Yemen and extends to Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The risk potential here is high.
Unrest and confrontation with Iran: As with the Ukraine war, an unprecedented popular uprising could turn Iran into a multifaceted crisis.
The conditions are ripe for a strong and dangerous conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel together, or with one of them. Iran's supply of drones and missiles to Russia adds a new dimension to the confrontation and impetus to impose new sanctions, and the possibility of confrontation here is high.
Worsening debt crisis in the developing world: The United Nations Development Program has warned that 54 low- and middle-income countries have "severe debt problems".
These countries represent 18% of the world's population, more than 50% of the people there live in extreme poverty, and 28 of the world's 50 largest countries are most vulnerable to climate disasters.
The expected probability here is above average.
Rising global debt: Although total global debt has declined slightly, rising interest rates, a strong dollar, recession in Europe, a weak Chinese economy, and uncertainty about Ukraine are likely to lead to a regional or even global financial crisis.
the probability of a regional crisis is higher than average;
As for the development of this into a global crisis, its probability is medium.
Deepening the global cooperation deficit: Although China and the United States agreed at the recent G20 summit to resume bilateral talks on climate change, another clash over Taiwan is likely to halt this effort, and the possibility of that is high.
A polarized and fragmented technical system: It is estimated that if the major powers try to achieve self-sufficiency on a large scale in semiconductors as desired by the administration of US President Joe Biden, the initial investment could reach a trillion dollars and the chips would cost 35 to 65% more, and the possibility here is higher than average.
Worsening effects of climate change: Most scientists believe that the world will soon reach this 1.5°C global warming point, and that we are on a path to an inevitable increase of 2.2°C unless countries commit to reducing 43% of total global warming gas emissions.
And the probability of that is high.
Deepening US-China tensions: Despite President Biden and Xi's efforts at their summit to stabilize relations, fundamental differences remain over Taiwan, technology standards, trade and human rights, and Beijing's provocations over questionable territorial claims in the South and East China Seas. And the probability here is above average.
A more serious impasse on the Korean peninsula: Pyongyang's ongoing testing of a full range of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as nuclear-capable, mobile, and medium-range tactical missiles.
And the probability of this is higher than average.