The meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukajsenko in Minsk is the first since 2019 and has been described as part of Russia's game with Belarus as well as the rest of the world.
Suspicions have been raised whether Putin will put further pressure on Belarus to join a new ground offensive and resume a new front.
Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi does not think we will see Belarusian military in Ukraine in the near future.
However, the country will continue to play a role in the form of support team and cheerleader for Putin, he believes.
- Maybe not very loud, but that this should be a safe place where you can launch air attacks against Ukraine and a place where you can practice. And then you can claim that you have a close connection, says Joakim Paasikivi.
Dependency
So far, Belarus has tried to stay out of the war in Ukraine.
Lukashenko has repeatedly said that the country will not participate militarily or allow itself to be ruled by Moscow.
But Paasikivi believes that there was great pressure.
- If Putin threatens to withdraw all support, Lukashenko will fall.
But the question is whether it is important enough to push them into the war.
So far, I'm doubtful about it, says Joakim Paasikivi.
During a joint press conference in connection with the meeting in Minsk, Lukashenko compared his relationship with Putin to that of an older brother.
Among other things, he thanked Russia for offering Belarus a discounted price for oil and gas.
- Russia can do without us, but we cannot do without Russia, Lukashenko said at the press conference.