Moscow -
The unexpected visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Belarus raised a wide range of questions and assumptions about its goals and implications in terms of timing and circumstances, especially since it comes 3 years after his last visit to Minsk, a period that was punctuated by serious developments at the level of bilateral relations. and common challenges.
Russian observers believe that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will take advantage of this visit to identify problematic joints in the relations between the two countries, while at the same time sending signals to the West that he does not want to burn bridges with him.
Although the press secretary of the Russian presidency, Dmitry Peskov, made it clear that the agenda would include "the full board of bilateral relations and trade and economic cooperation, which constitute an integration file between the two countries," the arrival of the Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, to Minsk to participate in the talks, may give the Russian-Belarusian summit an added dimension.
This dimension goes beyond the traditional borders of military cooperation between the two countries, leading to a modernization of the approach to this aspect, from the angle of new data on the developments of the war against Ukraine, and the challenges associated with the direct entry of the West on the line.
It was remarkable - in this context - that Ukrainian and Western media shed light on the recent joint public appearance of Putin and his defense minister, and placed him in the context of preparations for a new phase of the war, in light of the president's participation in a lengthy meeting with army leaders to discuss the situation around Ukraine. Shoigu arrived in Minsk one day after his visit to the "special operations" area, during which he flew over the Russian sites there by helicopter.
Old alliance
Russia and Belarus enjoy relations described as alliance, and are linked to more than 300 bilateral treaties and agreements in various fields.
In fact, Belarus is the closest country of the former Soviet Union and the CIS countries to Russia in terms of the convergence of political positions and the strength of economic cooperation.
It shares with it, among other things, its negative view towards Western policies, especially the issue of NATO's expansion to the east.
The two countries cooperate within the framework of the Commonwealth of Independent States (since 1991), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (since 2002), the Customs Union (since 2010) and the Common Economic Space (since 2012).
Since 2015 they have become members of the Eurasian Economic Union, which also includes Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.
Moreover, Russia regularly provides loans to Belarus to enhance its financial stability, including paying off state debts and replenishing gold and foreign exchange reserves.
Since 2008, the Russian government has granted Belarus at least 8 loans.
As of June 2019, the volume of Belarus's debts on government loans provided by the Russian Federation amounted to $7.55 billion, and according to Russian official data, Minsk has not, to date, had any obligations related to late payment.
Russia is also the main supplier of oil and gas to Belarus, as the oil refineries of this former Soviet republic operate on Russian raw materials.
For Minsk, the re-export of duty-free crude and refined oil from Russia is one of the main sources of export income.
Russia and Belarus enjoy an old alliance, and there are hundreds of agreements between them (French)
Pending issues
According to Vladimir Kochul, a researcher on CIS affairs, Putin's visit is evidence of the special relationship between Minsk and Moscow.
Within its framework, the integration schedule in the gas sector, which Belarus complains about, will be discussed, in addition to agricultural, industrial, energy and other economic integration issues, and exchange rates.
And the Russian expert points out - in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that a visit of this level was required to accelerate the merger processes, adding that Lukashenko will certainly benefit from Putin's visit to name the sectors that face problems, and work to solve them quickly.
And the expert continues that it is not possible to deny the symbolic and political importance of Putin's "rare" visit to Belarus, which is usually to unequivocally friendly and allied countries.
Warning messages
For his part, military expert Vladimir Kiriakin said that this visit will strengthen the military alliance between Russia and Belarus, and will raise the defense capabilities of the two countries, making "potential aggressors" think carefully before taking any provocation or military action against them.
He added - in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that the Belarusian forces constitute an important part of the regional grouping of Russian and Belarusian forces, which was established in 2000, and due to their importance, joint military exercises are regularly held, as it is considered one of the areas in which military interaction between the two countries is more productive, as well For providing a joint military and security cover, pointing out that Belarus is Moscow's most important strategic partner.
However, this military expert denies that Moscow has a tendency to "drag" Minsk into the repercussions of the war with Ukraine, for objective reasons, including Russia's lack of interest in opening a new front, even if the situation requires an attack on Kyiv via the Western Front.
The Russian expert supports his opinion that the Belarusian army, in addition to the previous considerations, is unable to bear the consequences of opening a new front through its territory, in addition to that this requires a renewal of the call for mobilization in Russia, which is trying to avoid it in any case.
But he notes that it is possible that Putin decided to check the "Western lines of defense" Russia is at war not with Ukraine, but with NATO, and here it is important to show that the president wants everything under control.