The winter could be less tense than expected.

The French electricity network operator, RTE, gave reassuring forecasts for the first month of winter on Tuesday, December 20, largely thanks to the sobriety of households and businesses and the increase in the availability of the nuclear fleet in December. .

In its last analysis of November 18, RTE had estimated that the month of January presented a “high” risk of tensions.

A situation "more favorable than at the beginning of autumn"

"France is approaching the heart of winter in a more favorable situation than at the beginning of autumn, and better prepared to deal with situations of tension", now estimates the manager, in the latest update of his outlook for the electrical system for the next four weeks.

"Provided that energy saving efforts are maintained, these favorable developments reduce the risk to security of supply compared to the anticipation of recent months, in particular for the month of January (... ), without being able to exclude it in the event of very unfavorable weather conditions", underlines RTE in its report.

This favorable development can be attributed to several factors.

Starting with a sharp drop in consumption, which is "now firmly established", with a decline of 9% over the past four weeks.

"The drop in electricity consumption is not a pipe dream, it is real and measured" and distributed between individuals and businesses, commented Thomas Veyrenc, executive director of RTE, during an online press briefing.

Recommissioning of reactors 

In addition, the hydraulic stocks (the dams), which had suffered from the drought, were able to be "reconstituted" during the autumn, while the gas stocks were able to be preserved thanks to the mild temperatures of the months of October and November, which shifted the heating period.

"The filling level of gas stocks is now around 85%, higher than in previous years", underlines RTE.

France has also been able to count on the solidarity of its European neighbors, with "a record level of imports (of electricity) close to 15 GW", in recent weeks.

Another notable factor, which has been closely scrutinized in recent weeks: the nuclear fleet, whose available capacity exceeded 40 gigawatts (GW) from the week of December 12, in particular after the return to service of several reactors.

"The increase in nuclear availability took place in line with our forecasts", underlined Thomas Veyrenc.

All of these elements make it possible to reduce the use of the Ecowatt red alert system – which should prevent inevitable cuts if consumption does not drop – compared to the basic scenario established by RTE in September.

While RTE predicted the activation of 0 to 5 red signals in winter, this risk was reduced a little for the second part of the meteorological winter to be "rather between 0 and 3 signals", indicated Thomas. Veyrenc.

"We absolutely have the means to avoid cuts this winter," insisted Thomas Veyrenc.

With AFP

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