She lives in an unfriendly neighborhood and is economically isolated

Armenia's position on Russia is undergoing a clear change

Putin has the upper hand in the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

archival

Although Armenia shared Russia's approach aimed at strengthening the Commonwealth of Independent States after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and both are members of a military alliance along with four other former Soviet states, this relationship has become noteworthy recently, amidst uncharacteristic volatility.

Retired Colonel Wess Martin, who served in law enforcement positions around the world, and holds an MBA in international politics and business, says in a report published by the American “National Interest” magazine, that a few days ago, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan embarrassed President Russian Vladimir Putin.

While hosting the Russian president in the Armenian capital, Yerevan, for a meeting of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, Pashinyan refused to agree to a summit statement.

And while any move away from Putin should be welcome, why did Armenia host Russia's largest military conference in the first place?

Martin adds that the Collective Security Treaty Organization is a reflection of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Like the Western alliance, an attack on one member is an attack on all six members, namely Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan.

But with the decision-making process in Moscow, the organization serves as a tool between governments to project Russian power.

And when anti-government protests threatened Russian interests in Kazakhstan at the beginning of the year, thousands of troops from across the coalition were sent in to quell dissent.

But when Armenia invoked the collective defense clause during the violence this fall on its border with Azerbaijan, the coalition remained silent.

Backyard

And with Russia embroiled in Ukraine, it can spare little for issues in what it considers its own backyard.

However, this incident raised questions about why Armenia did not withdraw from the conference or the organization altogether.

With the alliance not fulfilling its basic commitment, it appears that Armenia had little to gain by hosting pariah Russia, especially in light of its continued attempts to curry favor with the West.

Even Tajikistan, a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, abruptly canceled exercises on its soil in October.

Some say Armenia has no choice, too small to resist Russia's orbit, even after Moscow's senseless war in Ukraine.

Armenia may only outwardly depend on Moscow for its security, but it certainly depends on it economically.

Russia provides 85% of Armenia's natural gas and 99% of its wheat.

But this argument ignores the fact that small countries often take principled positions, even when they are economically harmful.

Three decades after Lithuania broke its dependence on Russia, one of Europe's smallest economies now stands up to the world's second largest.

Lithuania has publicly described China's treatment of the Uyghur minority as genocide, withdrew from the so-called 17+1 group that China uses to hold meetings with Central and Eastern European countries, and opened a Taiwanese representative office, making it the first European country to do so.

A heavy hand of economic coercion soon followed, as China banned imports from Lithuania, as well as the import of any product using Lithuanian parts.

Even after this economic coercion, Lithuania remains true to its principles.

Unfriendly neighborhood

Others believe that the issue of Armenia is not related to being a small country, but that it lives in an unfriendly neighborhood, as this country is economically isolated in its region.

Azerbaijan and Turkey closed their borders to Armenia for nearly three decades, cutting off more than 80% of Armenia's periphery.

But Armenia did not genuinely seek a peace agreement that would have led to the normalization of relations in its neighborhood, away from dependence on Russia.

Martin believes that Armenia's policy of holding the stick from the middle is responsible for its intransigence towards Russia, and not its unfriendly neighborhood or size.

astonishment

In October, there was a surprise when the data revealed that imports of refrigerators, washing machines, etc. into Armenia had risen significantly.

And there have been justified fears that the real recipient is the sanctioned Russian arms industry, which dismantles hardware electronics to obtain key technologies.

Even before that, many saw that Armenia was "avoiding sanctions" in relation to Russia when its exports to Russia jumped by 50% this year.

The lack of clear data indicates that Armenia re-exports Western products for transit fees.

Armenia may only outwardly depend on Moscow for its security, but it certainly depends on it economically.

Russia provides 85% of Armenia's natural gas and 99% of its wheat.

Many saw that Armenia was "avoiding sanctions" in relation to Russia, when its exports to Russia jumped by 50% this year.

The lack of clear data indicates that Armenia re-exports Western products for transit fees.

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