It is expected that the "OPEC Plus" alliance - during its meeting today, Sunday - will choose caution and maintain the status quo in terms of production quotas, on the eve of the entry into force of new sanctions against Russia.
So what about Moscow's reaction?
The members of this coalition meet today - via videoconference - at 11:00 UTC, to set their next production goal.
This comes while Russia refused yesterday to set a ceiling for the price of its oil, after the European Union, the Group of Seven, and Australia agreed on a mechanism that might limit Moscow's imports to finance its attack in Ukraine, and work under it may begin tomorrow "or shortly after."
On the same day, the European Union's embargo on Russian seaborne crude oil goes into effect, eliminating two-thirds of the bloc's oil imports from Russia.
What are the effects of Western measures on the Russian supply of oil?
Western measures aim to deny Moscow the means to finance its war in Ukraine.
Under the agreement, the Russian oil price ceiling is set at a level that is at least 5% lower than the market price of crude oil, and the G7 countries will ban their shipping companies from facilitating Russian oil shipments if they are sold for more than $60 a barrel.
DNB bank analysts say there is significant "uncertainty" about the potential impact of Western measures on Russian oil supply, according to a report by Agence France-Presse.
According to the report, the price of a barrel of Urals crude is currently around $65, which is slightly higher than the ceiling set by the European Union ($60), which indicates an impact that will be limited in the short term.
However, the Kremlin warned that it would not hand over oil to countries that adopt this mechanism, and this puts some countries "in a very uncomfortable position, as it requires them to choose between losing access to cheap Russian crude oil or exposing themselves to G7 sanctions," according to what was reported by the French Agency. About Craig Erlam, Analyst at OANDA Financial Group.
In the face of the unknown - the report adds - the "OPEC Plus" alliance can decide to "stay out of the spotlight and watch whether prices rise, after this new fan of sanctions," according to the "DNB" bank.
And the choice of a virtual meeting - and not at the alliance's headquarters in Vienna - reinforces the scenario of maintaining the status quo, that is, cutting production by two million barrels per day in December, as in previous months, according to analysts.
This is a trend confirmed by an Iranian source to Agence France-Presse.
Falling prices and the Kremlin's options
Despite this, the analyst at the "OANDA" financial group does not rule out approving a "sharp cut" to support prices, which were affected by the darkening of the global economic situation.
Amid the gloomy economic situation fueled by high inflation and fears of weak Chinese demand for energy due to its "zero Covid" strategy to combat the pandemic, the prices of the two reference oil in the world are still close to their lowest level during the year, and far from the peak they recorded last March.
Since the meeting of the "OPEC Plus" alliance last October, which was held at the cartel's headquarters in Vienna, prices have fallen significantly, by about 6%, to return to levels in early 2022.
And the French news agency quoted Eduardo Campanella, an analyst at UniCredit, as saying that the Kremlin has "several options to circumvent" these measures.
He added, "Moscow can respond by using its influence within OPEC Plus to push the coalition to adopt a more hostile stance," as he described it, in a warning to the West, which displeases the coalition by imposing price restrictions.
Analyst Campanella also warned that this scenario would lead to "an exacerbation of the energy crisis in the world."
Yesterday, Russia announced that it would not accept the price ceiling imposed by the European Union and the G7 countries on its oil exports.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow: We are currently analyzing the situation.
Of course, preparations have been made to confront this ceiling.
He added: We will not accept this ceiling, and after a quick analysis, there will be a decision on how to organize the work later.
Ukrainian reaction
For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described on Saturday the decision of the Group of Seven and Australia, to set a maximum price for Russian oil transported by sea at $60, as not serious and as not contributing much to deterring Moscow from its war in his country.
"You cannot call such a cap on Russian prices a serious decision, it is very convenient to counterbalance a terrorist state," Zelensky said in a video speech. "It's only a matter of time before resorting to stronger tools anyway. I regret wasting this time."
Earlier in the day, Andrei Yermak, director of the Ukrainian President's Office, said on Telegram that the price cap should be lowered to $30 per barrel to "destroy the enemy's economy faster."
Zelensky considered that the world showed weakness when he set the price cap at $60, saying he would increase Russia's budget by $100 billion annually.