ISTANBUL -
On November 20, Turkey launched an air military operation against positions of the Kurdish units opposing it in northern Syria, renewing its demand that the units be removed from its borders up to 30 kilometers, and threatening wider ground action if its demands were not met.
Although the Syrian regime, as expected, announced its opposition to the Turkish operation, the announced rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus does not seem to be affected.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced, after shaking hands with his Egyptian counterpart, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, on the sidelines of the Qatar World Cup opening ceremony, that the same thing could happen with Syria, opening the door to a meeting that might bring him together with his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad, after the general elections in Turkey next June. .
The rapprochement continues despite the "claw-sword"
Shortly after the launch of the "claw-sword" air operation in northern Syria, Erdogan reiterated the possibility of a meeting with Assad even before the elections.
On November 23, in response to a question from a reporter in parliament if he could meet the head of the Syrian regime, Erdogan said, "It is possible. There is no room for resentment in politics," and added, "In the end, steps are taken under the best conditions." .
On the other hand, the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, which is close to the Syrian regime, quoted Assad's assertion during a closed meeting with journalists that communication with Ankara now is of "intelligence only, but it will be followed by an increase in the level of meetings," revealing that "Turkey has shown willingness to meet Damascus' demands."
While Al-Assad stressed that "Syria expects deeds from Turkey, not just words," he implicitly praised Ankara's position on rapprochement with his regime, saying that "Ankara may be more sincere than some Arabs in its directions, but it is not possible to judge whether the Turkish position is serious or not." It's just a political maneuver."
And with Ankara threatening to expand its "claw-sword" air operation to include a ground military action, questions arose about whether Ankara's transformation of its threat into reality would affect the course of rapprochement and normalization between it and Damascus.
Turkey had announced the cessation of Operation Peace Spring in late 2019 after the conclusion of the Sochi agreement with Russia (Al-Jazeera)
What is the relationship of rapprochement with the ground operation?
Political analyst and researcher specializing in Turkish affairs, Saeed Al-Hajj, believes that the recent Turkish statements about the rapprochement with the Syrian regime, which give the impression that the process of normalization is accelerating, can be read from the angle of the Turkish goals related to northern Syria, whether to establish a safe area or confront separatist organizations.
Al-Hajj adds, to Al-Jazeera Net, that the timing indicates a direct relationship to the ground operation that Turkey is waving, as it sends clear messages to the Syrian Democratic Forces that "the game that it used to resort to by exchanging roles with the regime to protect itself no longer exists."
And Turkish official sources told Al-Jazeera that Turkey had stipulated the withdrawal of what is known as the Syrian Democratic Forces from Manbij, Ayn al-Arab (Kobani) and Tal Rifaat in northern Syria, to retreat from its operation.
The sources added that Ankara also stipulated the return of the Syrian regime's institutions as an alternative to the "Syrian Democratic Forces", including the security forces and border guards.
Replacing the regime forces with the "SDF"
Al-Hajj noted that "confronting the SDF and its projects is a common interest between Damascus and Ankara, and Turkey has become more accepting of the idea of the regime replacing the SDF," but not in the manner of what happened after the "Peace Spring" operation, according to the political analyst.
Turkey announced the cessation of Operation Peace Spring in late 2019, after the conclusion of the Sochi agreement with Russia, in which the latter pledged to remove the Kurdish units fighters from the Turkish borders up to 30 kilometers and to replace them with the Syrian regime forces, which was not achieved on the ground.
Al-Hajj believes that this is what prompted Ankara, according to what the media quoted from official Turkish sources, to not accept that the regime forces would formally replace the SDF, in an attempt to deceive or maneuver, such as changing flags or locations, and after the threat of the operation is gone, things will return to their previous state.
Kurdish YPG fighters took control of Tal Rifaat in 2016 after expelling the Syrian opposition fighters (Reuters)
Common denominators promote closeness
For his part, the researcher on Turkish affairs and international relations, Taha Odeh Oglu, stressed that what concerns Turkey in the first place is "removing the Kurdish militias from its borders and ensuring its security, and it is not important to launch a military operation or war," which opens the door to further rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus. .
The Turkish researcher told Al-Jazeera Net, "We do not forget that the broad title in the rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus is the fight against terrorism." He added that since the beginning of the revolution in Syria, Turkey was against division, and this may be a decisive common denominator between it and the regime.
For his part, Saeed Al-Hajj believes that "Turkey's seriousness in this process makes the SDF a common target for Ankara and Damascus, and therefore, even before its launch, it supports the path of normalization between them."
And in the event that the ground operation takes place, Al-Hajj ruled out that it would have any negative effects on normalization between the two sides, and pointed out that, on the other hand, if Turkey's conditions are implemented through the regime forces replacing the "SDF", this will have a positive impact on the course of the existing normalization and could He speeds it up.