To say that protesters in China are demanding democracy is premature

• China has for a few days been the scene of an uprising that is extremely rare in its extent in the country.

  Demonstrations took place in the cities of Shanghai, Beijing and Wuhan this weekend.

• Anger generated by the drastic anti-Covid restrictions in force for almost three years, as part of the zero-Covid policy adopted by Beijing.

• If slogans calling for the resignation of President Xi Jinping have been noticed in the rallies, this movement of anger is above all centered on the strategy against the epidemic, explain to

  20 Minutes

  Camille Brugier, China researcher at Irsem and Françoise Nicolas , Director of the Asia Center at Ifri.

China is rocked by a wave of anger.

Since November 24, after a fatal fire in a building in Urumqi, capital of Xinjiang province (northwest), many residents have been on the street.

They are protesting all over China, and particularly in big cities like Beijing, Shanghai or Wuhan, against the drastic health measures linked to the “zero-Covid” policy.

The strategy adopted by the Chinese government leads to very strict restrictions, sometimes building closures, which, in the case of the fire, prevented the inhabitants of the burning building from escaping.

Ten died.

A catalyst event for a long-standing gripe against what can sometimes be akin to a real “health dictatorship”.

In demonstrations of an unprecedented scale for modern times, the protesters demand more freedoms and the end of measures sometimes considered arbitrary.

Some slogans even call for the departure of Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

However, be careful not to project our Western reading onto this popular uprising.

For Camille Brugier, China researcher at Irsem (Strategic Research Institute of the Military School), contacted by

, “we cannot yet interpret this movement as an aspiration towards more freedom in the broad sense of the term, as a pro-democracy movement.

It's more a fed up with the zero-Covid strategy and rising food prices.

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Ras-the-masks

The Urumqi drama was therefore a trigger for an exasperation that has been simmering for several months, after nearly three years of repeated confinements and almost daily PCR tests of the population.

This impatience has also been amplified by images that are playing on televisions around the world at the moment: spectators crowded into the stadiums of Qatar on the occasion of the 2022 World Cup, and moreover without masks.

"The Chinese population has clearly seen through these images of supporters that the strategy advocated by the Chinese government against the pandemic is not as effective as it claims", underlines

Françoise Nicolas, Director of the Asia Center of Ifri (French Institute of International Relations).

Between the drastic measures to counter the circulation of the virus and the collapse of Chinese growth which affects daily prices, there is like a “tacit contract which is not fulfilled by the regime”, illustrates Camille Brugier.

On the one hand, the effectiveness of the strategy to which the CCP and Xi Jinping cling is undermined by images of the international situation, and on the other hand the economic situation which makes redistribution more difficult, the population despairs and the grumbling rises.

But it is not yet a pro-democracy movement as a whole, as the year 1989 and the Tiananmen revolution could have been the theater.

If certain placards, certain slogans, call for the resignation of the newly re-elected president for a third term or demand the withdrawal of the CCP, "these demonstrations first of all reflect the exasperation of the population with regard to the zero-Covid strategy" , warns Françoise Nicolas.

The demonstrations were joined by the student population, which for its part focuses its demands more on aspirations for democracy, but "these are two different movements, with different demands and to say that it is the whole of the Chinese population which demand for democracy during these demonstrations is too premature”, abounds Camille Brugier.

Can this revolt evolve into a more global revolution?

No one can predict this and the two specialists call for us not to "take our Western desires for reality", as Françoise Nicolas sums it up.

In other words, it is still far too early to see a rejection of Xi Jinping as the country's leader.

“It is rather a rejection of the president as leader of the zero-Covid strategy”, adds the director of the Asia center of Ifri.

An unprecedented scale, not yet historic

Still, these demonstrations, if they are not yet historic, not yet revolutionary, they do take on an “unpublished” character.

China is used to seeing mobilizations.

“There are some every day,” assures Camille Brugier.

But they are mainly local and relate to very specific issues such as the closure of a school or the establishment of a factory.

This weekend, what the country experienced is much more global, much broader and affects all layers of society.

"There, clearly saying 'Xi Jinping out' is new", underlines the researcher at Inserm.

"But it's not the only slogan", nuance François Nicolas.

For the rest, "we do not know how the regime will manage these demonstrations and how long they will last", adds Camille Brugier.

Especially since the power in place does not seem ready to let the protest express itself fully and freely.

Several arrests were made in the various cities where the rallies were held and the main Chinese security body said that it was "necessary to suppress the infiltration and sabotage activities of hostile forces in accordance with the law".

Either repress the protesters.

In addition, the rallies could not take place on Monday and Tuesday because of the police presence in the streets or palisades set up on strategic axes.

The back-to-the-wall diet

Apart from repression, the government uses a communication strategy well known to authoritarian regimes, which has already been applied several times in China.

This strategy consists of naming an external evil and therefore denouncing a plot hatched abroad, preferably in the United States, to destabilize the country.

In any case, the CCP and Xi Jinping do not seem ready to question its management of the epidemic, even continuing to praise its “success”, according to the Beijing correspondent of RFI.

The Chinese Communist Party therefore turns a deaf ear to this breathless population.

However, according to François Nicolas, relaxing certain health measures could put an end to the dispute.

Our file on China

But Xi Jinping is up against the wall.

Without a relaxation of the zero-Covid strategy, the exasperation is not likely to be extinguished with lockdowns and beatings from the police.

But relaxing anti-Covid restrictions means exposing yourself to an epidemic outbreak that the Chinese hospital system would not be able to handle.

The country is likely to see very high mortality rates, especially among the elderly population.

That is why today Beijing decided to accelerate the vaccination of the elderly against Covid-19, especially those aged over 80 and to continue to increase the vaccination rate for people aged 60 to 79. year.

Only 65.8% of people over the age of 80 are fully vaccinated, according to National Health Commission officials,

while Beijing has still not approved RNA vaccines, deemed more effective.

This insufficient rate of vaccination is one of the arguments put forward by the government to justify its strict health policy.

This is his only way out today to avoid questioning his legitimacy in the management of Covid-19, the strategy he has defended tooth and nail for almost three years.

“He cannot abandon zero-Covid like that, that would mean that he has been wrong for three years”, summarizes Françoise Nicolas.

This is his only way out today to avoid questioning his legitimacy in the management of Covid-19, the strategy he has defended tooth and nail for almost three years.

“He cannot abandon zero-Covid like that, that would mean that he has been wrong for three years”, summarizes Françoise Nicolas.

This is his only way out today to avoid questioning his legitimacy in the management of Covid-19, the strategy he has defended tooth and nail for almost three years.

“He cannot abandon zero-Covid like that, that would mean that he has been wrong for three years”, summarizes Françoise Nicolas.

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• World

• China

• Covid-19

• Xi Jinping

• Demonstration

• Confinement