What next for Mali?: What the West has to do in the Sahel

The withdrawal from Mali comes late, but at least there is now clarity.

May 2024 is the end for the German soldiers in Gao.

The decision is correct.

The military coups in recent years, the harassment of foreign forces by the military rulers and their cooperation with Russian mercenaries have made it increasingly difficult for the Bundeswehr to fulfill its mission.

None of that exists in Niger, so there is much to be said for concentrating on the neighboring country in the future in order to fight terror in the Sahel.

However, one should not have too many illusions here either.

At first glance, there are good reasons why Niger is considered an anchor of stability in the region.

While one coup follows the next in neighboring countries, President Mohamed Bazoum was democratically elected last year.

Connections to western partners are close and have grown for a long time.

Unlike in Mali, the training of Nigerien local staff by the Bundeswehr is going well.

The fact that "Operation Gazelle" can be successfully completed this December is not a matter of course for missions abroad, which are otherwise often extended from year to year.

opposition protests

However, the geographic location alone brings with it a whole range of problems that are not so easy to solve.

The violence from Mali and the other neighboring states of Burkina Faso, Nigeria and Chad has long spread to Niger.

Religious fanaticism is on the rise.

It is unlikely that anything will change in the near future.

The number of internally displaced people is increasing every day.

In one of the poorest countries in the world, it is easy for terrorist groups like Boko Haram or the "Islamic State" to recruit new fighters.

Anyone who doesn't know what to eat the next day can quickly be won over for a few banknotes and a motorbike.

The Nigerien population is already reacting with incomprehension to the fact that the foreign military can do little against the increasing number of terrorist attacks.

The UN soldiers who are already in the country as part of MINUSMA are not allowed to take part in combat operations themselves.

Whether it can succeed in conveying a feeling of protection is questionable.

In Mali, at any rate, things backfired.

The fact that the call for a withdrawal of Western forces has become louder in recent years is also due to the fact that they were perceived as largely powerless.

Many locals concluded that those who are just watching the security situation deteriorate can go.

In Niger, President Bazoum repeatedly promotes cooperation with Western partners.

In April of this year he successfully had parliament vote on the stationing of foreign forces in the country, which creates a good basis.

However, one should not underestimate the opposition's protest over the decision.

Anyone hoping to be welcomed with open arms in Niger could be sorely disappointed.

The disappointment of the population is great

France in particular, which has already moved a large part of its troops to the Sahel state, is likely to still have to struggle with this.

Many people reject the presence of the former colonial power.

Rumors are circulating that Paris itself is arming the terrorists with modern weapons in order to stir up unrest and take advantage of the country's natural resources.

Given that France still mines much of its uranium in Niger, such claims are difficult to refute.

The disappointment of the local population is great, they hardly benefit from the country's natural resources.

That should worry the other western states as well.

Ultimately, little can be done without Paris, but anti-French sentiment quickly turns into anti-Western.

Both are already known from the neighboring country.

The federal government should therefore already think carefully about how to deal with such scenarios - and at what level of rejection it draws a line.

It is at least a good sign that the government in Niger has so far refused to cooperate with Moscow.

Historically, there are few connections between the two countries, so the difficulties in Mali were greater.

But one shouldn't be naïve here either.

Putin will try to further expand his influence in the region, and the Nigerien borders do not protect against that.

He's already had success with the public.

The first demonstration with Russian flags recently took place in the capital.

The next one won't be long in coming.