The expected Turkish military operation in northern Syria is approaching more than ever, as it has been postponed at the last moment several times.
The writer, Serhat Arkman, said in his report published by the Turkish website "Fiktururu" that the regional movement and internal factors in Syria have reached the point of opening the door to a new phase that must be entered in order to end the crisis in Syria, as the direct reason for the "lock-claw" air operation was the terrorist attack. Which was carried out by the Kurdistan Workers Party on November 13 on Istiklal Street.
But the expected ground operation now is not only related to terrorist action on Istiklal Street. Turkey has tried several times since the second half of 2021 to carry out operations to eliminate the threats posed by the presence of the PKK and the People's Protection Units in Syria, but it was not possible to end these attempts. Each time because of the reactions of Russia and the United States, but the circumstances are different now.
possible
The writer mentioned that the intersection of 3 basic systems makes it possible for Turkey to start the military operation in Syria: the first: the decline in Russia’s ability to stop Turkey due to the military and economic problems caused by the Ukraine war, the second: the unwillingness of the United States to fully confront Turkey due to potential developments in Iran, The third is the need for tangible developments in the process of building the confidence necessary for the transition of relations between Ankara and Damascus to the next stage.
The writer stated that Russia was unable to find what it wanted militarily in the ninth month of the war on Ukraine, and withdrew a large part of its forces and air elements that form the backbone of its military supremacy from Syria.
He added that the focus in the economic field in the relations between Turkey and Russia has led to an increase in the mutual need for each other.
Washington
The writer pointed out that the internal crisis in Iran has great potential for growth, as it raises several questions, including: What if the crisis in Iran turned into a big explosion and ignited a major transformation like Iraq and Syria, how would its impact mainly be on the region?
The writer said that the United States has always considered Turkey one of the most important partners in the opportunities that change can generate in Iran, because the impact of a potential revolutionary transformation in Iran may lead to results greater than the sum of Syria and Iraq.
Iran crisis
The writer explained that if the regime in Iran was able to overcome this crisis in a short time, there is a high possibility that it will fill the vacuum left by Russia in Syria, and in this case Iran's sphere of influence will be expanded against the United States and Russia.
And if Tehran escapes from this crisis and begins a struggle to establish a sphere of influence spread in the Middle East between the United States and Iran, then Syria may turn this time into one of the places where this conflict intensifies, in other words: while the United States is trying to prevent Turkey from taking steps against the People's Protection Units. And the Democratic Union Party in Syria may be in a difficult situation with the simultaneous moves of Iran and Turkey.
Ankara and Damascus
The writer indicated that in addition to weakening the PKK and the People's Protection Units, if the operation resulted in the Syrian regime taking control of many areas in which it is usually unable to advance, Ankara and Damascus can benefit from a mechanism of action and bilateral coordination that creates a new balanced horizon for their interests.