ISLAMABAD -

After weeks of mobilization and the arrival of the long march called for by Imran Khan, the former Pakistani prime minister and leader of the "Insaf" party, to the outskirts of the capital, Islamabad, Khan is backing away from entering it and resorting to other options.

During a speech to a crowd of his supporters in the city of Rawalpindi, adjacent to the capital, Imran Khan announced the dissolution of regional governments in the provinces of Punjab (east) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (northwest), and the resignation of all his party's parliamentarians in them.

This comes as the Pakistan Democratic Movement - which includes government coalition parties - is considering options to prevent the dissolution of these councils, while the Pakistan Elections Commission announced that elections will be held within 60 days if mass resignations are submitted in the two regions, according to Pakistani media.

Imran Khan announced in a speech to his supporters in Rawalpindi the dissolution of provincial councils in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Reuters)

What prompted Imran Khan to cut off his career and back down from entering the capital?

"I decided not to go to Islamabad, because I know there will be chaos and loss for the country," Imran Khan said while speaking at the Rawalpindi rally.

In this context, Pakistani journalist and political analyst Muhammad Mahdi tells Al-Jazeera Net that when Khan announced the long march, he said at that time clearly that he would force the federal government to announce general elections with the force of this march, "but he could not mobilize on a large scale to achieve this goal."

For his part, journalist and political analyst Javed Rana believes that Imran Khan took this decision in light of the fact that there is a new army chief who was chosen from the government, and he is supposed to be closer to it than anyone else.

Rana adds to Al-Jazeera Net, "Therefore, Imran Khan does not have any support from the military establishment, and the new commander will not allow any decline in the army, and perhaps this is what prompted Khan to cut off the march."


What is the purpose of Imran Khan's announcement to dissolve his party's regional governments and councils?

Addressing his supporters at the Rawalpindi gathering, Khan said that after consulting with the parliamentary party, a date will be set to "exit" from the councils, he said, as he spoke with his prime ministers in this regard, adding that "the PJSP can no longer be part of the corrupt system." ".

Commenting on this, Muhammad Mahdi says that in order to achieve face-saving for Imran Khan, he announced his resignation from the provincial councils as a political trick so that he could put his supporters behind a new slogan, cover up the issue of lack of popular participation, and prevent it from being turned into a topic for discussion.

Mahdi adds that by announcing the consultation on the date of the resignations, Khan made it clear that he considers it a mere political trick, and has no intention of leaving the provincial governments. Imran Khan is associated with the army in the current situation.

As for Javed Rana, he says that Imran Khan's announcement of the dissolution of the councils is a smart move and poses a challenge to the provincial government, because the Election Commission will be obliged to hold elections in both provinces within 90 days, and the government will have to respond.

Rana adds, "We are talking about Punjab, which constitutes approximately 57% of the population of Pakistan, and Khyber Province 20-25%, and given the previous results, it seems that the Insaf Party can win the elections."

He continues, "This means that the PTI creates special conditions that can push the federal government to hold general elections at the level of Pakistan, in the sense that the loss of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz Sharif's wing) in the Punjab elections will mean its loss in the next general elections, regardless of when they are held."

For his part, the head of the Pakistan Institute for Legislative Development and Transparency, Ahmed Bilal Mahboob, believes that the Insaf Party only wants to threaten to see how serious the military establishment, with its new leadership, is in dealing with it, according to an analysis reported by the Pakistani newspaper "Dawn".

Supporters of Imran Khan protest in the aftermath of his assassination attempt and his injury weeks ago (Anadolu Agency)

What are the expected scenarios during the next stage?

In this context, Muhammad Mahdi talks about two scenarios for the political situation in Pakistan during the coming period:

  • First: That Imran Khan actually dissolve the councils of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and this will increase the political tension in the country to the point that the governments of Sindh and Balochistan, including the central government, will also have to be dissolved.

    Mahdi is not likely to achieve this scenario.

  • As for the other scenario - according to the analyst - because of the country's economic situation, the military will not seek elections, so there are greater chances for the current federal government to survive.

On the other hand, Javid Rana believes that after this tension in the Pakistani arena, the new military leadership will seek to take a step back to reduce the intensity of the political conflict in the country, and will work to calm the arena.

Rana adds that the other parties in the two regional parliaments will try during the coming period to prevent the dissolution of regional governments and parliaments by using some constitutional articles, "but in the end, the Justice Party will be able to dissolve those councils and pave the way for new elections in them."