Starting from the US midterm elections on the 8th of this month, former President Trump's position is greatly shaken.
As the Republican Party was expected to win just before the election, the presence of former President Trump, who ran everywhere during this election and campaigned for support, increased more than ever. The situation has been reversed.
This situation is also confirmed numerically.
After the election, Florida Governor Disantis, who was considered a latent dragon in the Republican Party, beat Trump in various polls asking about the preference of the next Republican presidential candidate.
Disantis is a staunch conservative who has always emphasized the fact that he inherited former President Trump's political line, so 'Trump' has been pushed aside by 'Little Trump'.
It's not that former President Trump hasn't checked Governor Disantis, who has been growing his status in the party.
On the 5th, before the midterm elections, former President Trump mocked Disantis for the fact that he is gaining public popularity by advocating his own line during the campaign to support the Republican candidate, and in a press interview two days later, if Disantis goes to the presidential election, " You could get seriously hurt," he warned directly.
However, these words and actions only drew criticism, and the ensuing Republican election defeat was a fatal blow to him.
On the other hand, Governor Disantis, who succeeded in re-election lightly, showed confidence by showing an attitude that did not care about Trump's criticism.
CNN reported that Disantis dismissed Trump's attack as "noise."
“The important thing is whether you are leading, showing results, standing for the people,” said Governor Disantis. “If you do, then nothing matters.”
Conservative mainstream 'turned their backs' on Trump
Trump's struggles continued in his declaration of running for the 2024 presidential election.
Even conservative media such as the Wall Street Journal and Fox News turned their backs on him.
In the case of the Wall Street Journal, through an editorial, it cited tax, deregulation, energy security, appointment of judges, and Middle East policy as the achievements of the Trump administration's policies, but said, "His character flaws, such as narcissism, lack of self-control, abuse of his advisers, and childish revenge, are these." It makes success shine."
The bigger problem for Trump is that the eyes of these conservatives continue to turn to Disantis.
Elon Musk, who has considerable influence on the Republican support base as well as the conservative media, recently announced his intention to support Florida Governor Disantis.
Musk replied "yes" to the question of whether he would support Ron Disantis in 2024 on Twitter, a social media he manages.
He went on to say, "I would like the 2024 presidency to go to a more sensible and centrist figure."
Former White House national security adviser Bolton, who split with Trump in the evening, also mentioned Governor Disantis as the next Republican presidential candidate in an interview with the British daily Guardian, saying, "Many people see him as the next-generation candidate."
He also claimed, "After the midterm elections, many people erased former President Trump from their heads."
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Will Trump go with the wind?
Looking at this, it doesn't seem easy for former President Trump to stand in the presidential election again as a candidate within the Republican Party in the 2024 presidential election.
In fact, one of the biggest reasons why he is shunned by mainstream Republicans and the conservative press is because of his eccentricity, as noted in a Wall Street Journal editorial.
His unstoppable behavior and his self-centered thinking, conspiracy theories out of rationality, etc...
Before the midterm elections, I met a person who had experience working for the old Republican Party (not the Trump administration).
Since Trump was a hot topic at the time, I asked why the mainstream Republican party was not excluding him from the candidacy.
One answer was the possibility of winning.
It's not like the Republican mainstream likes him that way, but at least there's no candidate that can beat him in the Republican primary.
Of course, things have changed now.
Is that enough to rule out Trump?
It doesn't seem so.
Above all, we must not forget that from the beginning, his political base was not the mainstream of the Republican Party or conservative forces.
Early in the 2016 Republican presidential race, no one took him seriously.
However, he defeated his candidates one by one in the process of primary and eventually won the candidacy.
One of the candidates who was pushed out at that time is former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, the younger brother of former President George W. Bush.
Jeb Bush was a person whose political assets and background were strong enough to be comparable to the current disantis jujusi.
However, he showed a unilateral struggle with former President Trump, whom he met during the primary debate, and eventually fell off the horse.
Trump and Disantis are also saying that you can't know if you won or lost without trying a real sword game.
Unlike in 2016, many people are now familiar with Trump's eccentricities.
Meanwhile, a bone marrow wave called MAGA (Make America Great Again) was born.
In elections, especially primary elections, a strong minority often exerts more power than a weak majority.
And Trump's strength is that he is good at Grass Roots, rhetoric or techniques that pull grass roots toward him.
It is also the reason he was able to rise to the presidency without a political base.
If Trump loses the Republican primary
Another, even if you hate the Republican Party, there is a realistic reason why it is not easy to throw out Trump.
As the Wall Street Journal pointed out, even if he loses the Republican primary, there is a possibility that he will not admit defeat and mobilize supporters to obstruct the Republican presidential candidate or run as a third candidate.
Will he, who did not even admit defeat in the presidential election, easily admit defeat in the primary?
If he refuses to admit defeat in the primary and continues to attack the elected Republican presidential nominee, the Republican Party will not be able to avoid self-restraint.
If that happens, winning the presidential election will be over the water.
Fortunately, even if he leaves the party, if he becomes the third candidate after the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, it is highly likely that the Democratic Party will win the presidential election as the votes of the Republican supporters are dispersed.
Either scenario is a Republican nightmare.
So the Republicans' best bet is to somehow prevent Trump from running, but it's too late.
It's because there doesn't seem to be any way to sit him down, who first declared his candidacy.
After being driven into a corner due to the FBI investigation, local media analyzes that Trump had no choice but to run for the presidential election for self-defense, even if it was not necessarily a victory in the presidential election.
DeSantis, who has a bright future, is a variable even if he chooses the presidential election
In fact, we need to see Disantis, who has emerged as the most likely Republican presidential candidate, jump into the actual presidential race.
This is because, for the reasons mentioned above, running for president in 2024 may not be a good choice for Disantis.
If, at best, even after winning the primaries, Trump blows up the main elections with a mongni...
As he is 44 years old this year and has just succeeded in re-election as governor of Florida, there are many opportunities to run in the presidential election even after his term as governor is over.
Of course, the choice is his.
Looking at the story so far, apart from the presidential election, Trump's influence in the Republican primary process seems to still be significant.
However, the mountain that former President Trump has to overcome is not easy.
First of all, various investigations are underway around him, such as unauthorized leakage of secret documents, intrusion into the Capitol, and tax issues.
Judicial risks could block his path to the presidential election itself.
Another is his erratic behavior.
Criticism has been pouring in after it became known that he recently invited a white supremacist to dinner with him at his Mar-a-Lago vacation home in Florida.
How much else there will be before the next presidential election with two years left depends on his words and actions.
It's true that Trump's popularity has waned, but I think we'll have to wait and see what happens in the future.
(Photo = Getty Image Korea)