British writer: What does victory mean for Ukraine and Russia now?

British writer Alexander E. Gale, an analyst specializing in security, international relations and applied security, says that events in Ukraine continue to develop in often unexpected ways that have prompted policymakers in Kyiv and Moscow to evaluate the criteria that will determine "acceptable" victory or defeat.

on the "The National Interest" website, the writer reviewed the

development of events in the Ukrainian war and the shift in the military balance of power between the two warring parties since Russia launched its "special operation" there last February, and its reflection on the concepts of victory and defeat on both sides.

He pointed out that the expectations for Kyiv were bleak, as the CIA predicted that Russian forces would quickly penetrate Ukrainian defenses and seize Kyiv within weeks, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, predicted that the Ukrainian government would not It lasts more than 72 hours.

The first months

During the early months of the war, Ukraine shared a similar view. Kyiv's main goal was to ensure the survival of a viable Ukrainian state, which would likely rule a greatly diminished territory. By late summer, Ukraine was in a position strong enough to launch a counteroffensive, prompting He forced Russia to cede the land it had seized just months earlier.

Success on the battlefield encouraged Ukraine to revise its goals given that complete military victory is possible after a long time, and as such Kyiv has set its sights on completely expelling Russia from all the territories it has occupied since the beginning of the war and even from Crimea, overthrowing the government of Vladimir Putin, and prosecuting senior Russian officials for war crimes committed during the conflict.

Moscow is curtailing its ambitions

The writer said that this speech indicates that victory at Kyiv is heading towards a more stringent vision, and on the contrary, setbacks on the battlefield and the poor performance of the Russian army forced Moscow to reduce its ambitions.

For Moscow at the start of the war, Putin clearly envisioned a complete victory. Russia's initial plan was to quickly capture Kyiv and decapitate the Ukrainian government. Resistance was expected to be light, and to imprison, kill, or exile Zelensky's government. A pro-Moscow puppet government.

current reality

And now - the writer explains - the reality on the ground required a change in strategy, and the Kremlin turned its attention to eastern and southern Ukraine. Vladimir Putin currently aims to achieve a more limited victory within the borders of this narrow geographical area, and if Moscow managed to tighten its grip on these areas, Putin's first propaganda The war can create a version of victory based on the security of these regions.

At the moment, neither side seems ready to negotiate, and as a general rule countries come to the negotiating table to end a war when they are in a stronger military position to force concessions from their opponent or when they are so threatened that peace is necessary.

At a minimum, Moscow will likely demand a firmer grip on the annexed regions of eastern and southern Ukraine, as well as continued control of Crimea until it can consider negotiations, and that only if Putin concludes that no further military gains can be made.