• After the attack perpetrated on November 13 in Istanbul, the Turkish president is crying out for revenge and wants to attack the Kurds in Syria.

  • After strikes that left dozens dead in the north of the country, Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened a new ground operation.

  • The United States and Russia, which have forces there, called for calm.

    But this offensive can further deteriorate the relationship between Ankara and Washington, explains Ariane Bonzon, journalist specializing in Turkey and author of

    Turkey, the hour of truth

    .

Erdogan is back on the attack.

The Turkish president threatened on Monday to launch a ground offensive in northern Syria, an area held by the Kurds of Syria (YPG).

“We flew over the terrorists for a few days with our aircraft and our drones.

God willing, we will eliminate them soon with our soldiers, guns and tanks,” he said after carrying out strikes that killed 37, mostly Kurdish fighters, as well as 16 Syrian soldiers.

The local Kurdish authorities have also reported 11 civilians killed.

Two Kurdish fighters were then killed on Tuesday by the bombing of a Turkish drone targeting a joint base of Kurdish forces and the international anti-jihadist coalition, led by the United States.

Actions taken in retaliation for the attack perpetrated in Istanbul on November 13, justifies Ankara.

If Turkey has already crossed the Syrian border, especially in 2020, this decision would bring tensions between Kurdish groups and Turkey to a “degree above”, warns Ariane Bonzon, journalist specializing in Turkey and author of

Turkey, the hour of truth

(Empreinte Temps Present), contacted by

20 Minutes

.

If the players on the ground, Russia and the United States, have called for calm, will they really be able to prevent Recep Tayyip Erdogan from acting?

Why are the Turks targeting Syria?

Contrary to what one might think, Turkey has nothing against the Damascus regime.

What interests him is the Syrian fringe of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party), the YPG (People's Protection Units).

The PKK is registered by Ankara, and by many other countries including the United States, on the list of terrorist organizations.

Turkey has claimed that the Kurdish organization in Syria was responsible for the attack in Istanbul which killed six people and injured 81 according to an official report.

The PKK and the YPG for their part denied, in two separate press releases, their responsibility for the attack.

Still, Recep Tayyip Erdogan intends to respond "to this villainous attack which cost the lives of six innocent people, including children, by eradicating terrorist organizations in Iraq and northern Syria".

If Turkish forces carried out ground operations in northwestern Syria, it would not be the first time.

They have already crossed the border in 2016 and 2017 with Operation Euphrates Shield, then in 2018 with Operation Olive Branch and finally, in 2019 with Operation Source of Peace.

In 2020, the Turks were also present in the Idlib region in northwestern Syria.

Last July, Erdogan once again threatened an umpteenth offensive against Kurdish militants, before being held back by Vladimir Putin, who did not want to support his counterpart, Arab News reported.

But why carry out these operations?

"To destroy the YPG," says Ariane Bonzon.

Turkey “wants to create a strip in Syria, a kind of buffer zone, officially to protect itself from Kurdish attacks”,

she expands.

This area would also serve to "interrupt the Kurdish continuum in the area" and "could, moreover, allow Ankara to send Syrian refugees there", she adds.

Several arguments that would allow Erdogan to gain points for the next presidential election scheduled for the end of spring 2023. In addition, the Turkish head of state fears a Turkish-Kurdish front against him.

"It must feed anti-Kurdish nationalism", analyzes the specialist.

the Turkish head of state fears a Turkish-Kurdish front against him.

"It must feed anti-Kurdish nationalism", analyzes the specialist.

the Turkish head of state fears a Turkish-Kurdish front against him.

"It must feed anti-Kurdish nationalism", analyzes the specialist.

Can the relationship between Ankara and Washington deteriorate further?

The cold has been blowing between Ankara and Washington since 2003, when Turkey refused access to its territory to the American army to invade Iraq.

It deteriorated further when the United States chose the Kurds of Syria to help them fight the jihadists of the Islamic State.

"The confidence gap has widened" between the two, summarizes Ariane Bonzon.

A land operation by Turkey in Syria could once again worsen relations between these two NATO members, especially if “an American unit was hit by a Turkish attack, underlines the Turkey specialist.

This would create a real problem.

For the moment, the American military command for the Middle East (Centcom) told AFP that its forces "were not in danger" during the Turkish strikes in northern Syria.

If Americans remain spared, the White House is highly unlikely to go beyond appeals for calm or diplomatic deterrence.

"We call for de-escalation in Syria to protect civilians and support the common goal of defeating the Islamic State," said US State Department spokesman Ned Price on Tuesday evening.

In response, Turkey demanded on Tuesday that the United States "cease all support" to YPG fighters, whom it considers terrorists.

In any case, Turkey cannot conduct a ground operation without "a minimum of coordination and information with Washington", the two states being members of NATO.

What role for Russia?

Russia is somewhat at home in Syria.

It has supported the Damascus regime against the revolution and armed groups since 2015 and bombed civilian infrastructure or refugee camps at all costs.

Damascus did not react to the Turkish bombardments or to the announcement of the ground operation.

In fact, Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president, "does what Russia and Iran tell him to do", slice Ariane Bonzon.

Our file on Syria

And Moscow is therefore also concerned by this probable Turkish intervention in the north of the country.

The Kremlin thus tried to call for "restraint" hoping to convince its "Turkish colleagues" to "restrain from using excessive use of force on Syrian territory", according to Alexander Lavrentiev, special envoy of Russian President Vladimir Putin on Syria.

Insisting on Russia's efforts to prevent any ground operations "for months", the special envoy called for "continuation of work with all stakeholders to find a peaceful solution, including on the Kurdish question".

But if Russia has no interest in Syria being more destabilized than it is by more than ten years of war,

on the other hand, it can take advantage of the deterioration in relations between Turkey and the United States.

“It always suits him that Turkey does things that the Americans don't like.

Anything that can weaken NATO and Europe is good for Moscow,” recalls Ariane Bonzon.

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