A Russian political analyst said that the country's political elites are struggling to cut ties with President Vladimir Putin in light of the "embarrassing" retreat of Russian forces in Ukraine.

The head of the "R. Politik" institution for political analysis, Tatiana Stanovaya, said that the Russian Ministry of Defense's announcement of the complete withdrawal of its forces from the city of Kherson (southern Ukraine) earlier this month represents a "real disaster."

She added that this "embarrassing" retreat - which followed Ukraine's successful counterattack in Kharkiv province last September - prompted many Russian elites to question and object to the invasion.

And she claimed that there is a division in the Russian home front that has begun to emerge between two teams: one is supportive of President Vladimir Putin's approach to his war on Ukraine, and the other is opposed.

Stanovaya (a non-resident researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) - in an article published in the American magazine "Foreign Affairs" - reviewed in some detail the nature of the differences between the two parties and their concerns about the repercussions of the war.


Moscow did not manage the war well.

It revealed that the team that has been opposing the war since its inception, but has remained silent and preferred safety;

He was joined by many people who actively supported the war but were now convinced that Moscow had not managed the invasion well, and privately wished the war to end.

Indeed, some of them - as the author suggests - are concerned that President Putin is no longer fit to lead the country, is prone to making mistakes, and is overly emotional in making decisions.

She mentioned a number of prominent "national" Russian political figures and forces in favor of the war, who recently called on Moscow to fight until reaching Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, but they finally seemed more realistic.

Like these, a reporter for the "Obraz Podoshigu" channel affiliated with the famous "Telegram" institution, which is loyal to the Russian army, wrote that Moscow should work to freeze the conflict and carry out internal reforms.

And there is Yuri Baranchik, a prominent Russian patriot at the Telegram Foundation, who said that Moscow's "blitzkrieg" war on Ukraine had failed, and it should stop trying to move forward with it, and instead entrench itself in its current positions on the battlefields, and focus on internal issues.

Another famous TV analyst, Alexander Medvedev, recently advised Russia to admit that the situation in Ukraine is bad, and that Moscow will face more defeats.

Even aggressive nationalists - as Stanovaya calls them - such as Alexei Zhivov argued that the war showed that the Russian political system had failed.

They stress that Russia should work to manage its internal affairs and confront corruption instead of continuing to fight in Ukraine.


The rise of the realists

Some in the West may believe that the growing dispute within Russia represents an opportunity, and there may be influential Russian groups that want Moscow to tone down its rhetoric and engage in real negotiations with Kyiv and the West to end the war.

But even if there are growing calls at home to reconsider the war and focus on local problems, there are - according to the Russian researcher - serious complications that make it difficult for these "realists" to turn into peacemakers.

According to the Foreign Affairs article, those realists are apprehensive about any negotiations that might lead to a humiliating decision that threatens their political future or even their personal safety.

Notably, no one in the Russian leadership has publicly endorsed any form of territorial concessions that would amount to an admission of Russia's defeat, which could lead to a criminal prosecution.

For the same reason, the country's elites will not dare turn against President Putin;

Despite his failures, he remains the best bet to preserve his rule and ensure his safety and security.

The author points out in her article that the rise of realists may be decisive for ending the conflict, realizing that the current course of war is "suicidal" behavior, and that carrying out more atrocities and wasting diminished resources would exacerbate Russia's already deteriorating position in a conflict that Moscow will have to end in the end.

Stanovaya goes on to say that Moscow is deeply divided over the current conflict.

Among the elites of the "ultranationalists" see the show of support for the war as the key to its political survival, and imagine the possibility of achieving a clear victory and the eventual fall of Kyiv in the hands of Russia.

and a growing chorus of realists has realized that Moscow does not have the resources it needs to win;

So they favor an approach in which Russia avoids further defeat by freezing the war by striking an interim agreement with the West, digging defensive lines around their current positions and using reinforcements to stop Ukraine's advance.

However, no one in the Russian elite supports a withdrawal of forces from Ukraine to positions before February 24, the day Moscow launched war on its western neighbor.