Polish President Andrzej Duda says it is highly likely that the robot that crashed in eastern Poland on Tuesday was fired by Ukrainian air defenses and that it was not intentional.
He also says it was probably a Russian-made S-300 rocket.
This is the theory that even Rein Pella, teacher of defense systems and artillery expert at the Norwegian Defense Academy, says is highly probable.
- The robot has missed its target and then for some reason has not exploded in the air.
They then flew until the fuel ran out and in this case exploded in Poland, he says.
Normally, rockets of this type are supposed to explode in the air precisely to avoid hitting the ground, explains Rein Pella.
Why they didn't do it in this case, he can't say anything about.
The S-300 rocket, which was developed during the Soviet era, is a long-range anti-aircraft robot and you must be able to send a signal so that it explodes in the air from the control unit.
Has certainly happened in Ukraine before - may happen again
Although the S-300 missile is a long-range robot, it cannot have been fired all the way to Poland from Russia.
- The rocket can travel approximately 175-330 kilometers, the closest route when I have checked from Russia to Poland is around 600 kilometers.
It was most likely fired from Ukraine.
How often a mistake like this happens, says Rein Pella, is difficult to answer.
- Of course, the older the systems become, the more insecure they are.
S-300 is an old system.
This has certainly happened in Ukraine before, but then they have also landed in Ukraine and then the information has not reached the outside world.
Rein Pella also says that it is not entirely unlikely that this will happen again.
- We see every day that the robots miss their targets.
If they don't explode in the air, they fly until the fuel runs out, and then they can end up outside the country's borders.