Increased immigration could destabilize the world

Climate change increases the risk of conflict

Climate change requires American soldiers to be fully prepared to face any emergency.

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Climate change risks fueling conflict around the world, exacerbating the suffering caused by the direct repercussions of a rapid rise in global temperatures.

Competition will intensify as droughts lead to increasing food and water scarcity, populations fleeing the most affected areas and melting ice in the Arctic open new avenues for countries to compete for resources and influence, all of which enhance the potential for conflict.

While climate change poses new security threats, it also presents significant challenges for the US military, which operates around the world to deter adversaries and deal with crises.

Storms and floods have already caused billions of dollars in damage to US bases at a time when things are looking to deteriorate.

Meanwhile, the frequency of disasters increases the demand for soldiers, and more severe environmental conditions will require changes in training programs and equipment.

In this regard, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin wrote, in a preface to a 2022 report on progress in climate change adaptation that “rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and more frequent, intense, and unpredictable weather conditions as a result of climate change exacerbate security risks.” current and create new challenges.

"Climate change is increasing the demand and scale of military operations at home and around the world," he added.

At the same time, the order undermines military readiness and imposes more unsustainable costs on the Department of Defense.”

real tension

Morgan Hegman, a researcher with the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program, points to the tension that already exists over how to deal with climate change at a time when its tangible repercussions will set the stage for "the eruption of conflicts within and across borders."

Rules damaged

"Many countries are facing difficulties associated with drought, water scarcity, sea level rise and/or extreme heat, repercussions that will reduce economic production and exacerbate migration, and require increased levels of humanitarian assistance," Hegman said.

Gregory Bullock, director of the Pentagon's Office of Arctic and Global Resilience Policy, which is responsible for dealing with the security implications of climate change, said the United States is "closely watching" a potential increase in competition for resources.

Destabilization

He pointed out that the increase in migration driven by climate change "could destabilize various regions of the world", while the melting of ice caused the opening of new corridors in the Arctic and the competition that this would create another source of instability.

As various countries pursue goals in the region, Bullock said, "Our concern is that this will cause a change in the security environment in this part of the world.

The Arctic has historically been a region of peace and we hope to keep it that way.”

In addition to the increased potential for conflict, climate change, which world leaders are discussing at the COP27 conference in Egypt this week, poses other challenges for the US military.

Bullock explained that three US military bases suffered damage estimated at $9 billion as a result of hurricanes and floods that struck them in the years 2018 and 2019, while there are major sites around the world "that are likely to be increasingly vulnerable to factors related to climate change, whether as a result of erosion in coastal areas. Or floods, or more hurricanes.

reduced readiness

Climate change also means soldiers will battle in difficult conditions, something the Defense Department has acknowledged may require adjustments to training programs and equipment.

The US military's report on its progress in climate adaptation said it is currently "evaluating and reviewing testing, training, equipment, exercise, and acquisition programs to incorporate climate change considerations."

US forces are already responding to a growing number of disasters, both at home and abroad.

"We are seeing an increase in the frequency of disasters, and therefore an increase in the demand for US military forces to contribute to response operations," Bullock said.

Within the United States, the National Guard has tasked the National Guard with fighting wildfires year-round, rather than during a particular season, which “overburdens our strength and reduces preparedness,” Bullock says.

The 2023 defense budget proposal included more than $3 billion in climate-related funding, while the US military highlighted the threat posed by climate change in its 2022 National Defense Strategy.

But a shift in power in the White House could dilute attention to the challenges posed by climate change, something Hegman said the Pentagon should avoid.

"The military cannot not think about climate change," she said. "The risks are very high and many."

 Storms and floods have already caused billions of dollars in damage to US bases, just as things look to deteriorate.

Three US military bases suffered damage estimated at $9 billion, as a result of hurricanes and floods that hit them in 2018 and 2019.

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