Politics: is France heading towards a dissolution of the Assembly?

French President Emmanuel Macron during a tribute ceremony at the Louvre, in Paris, November 2, 2022. AP - Christian Hartmann

Text by: Aurélien Devernoix

3 mins

Is Emmanuel Macron preparing the dissolution of the National Assembly?

The government has already on several occasions engaged its responsibility on the budgetary texts, and the other reforms wanted by the head of state should have difficulty finding majorities in the hemicycle.

According to the

, the Élysée already has a battle plan in mind to return to the polls.

But this option is welcomed with reluctance in the presidential camp.

Advertising

Read more

A leak directed towards the presidential camp

The choice of the Élysée to relaunch the theme of dissolution

article can be explained in several ways.

First, a battle of ideas on the subject within the presidential camp.

If there is indeed reluctance, relatives of the Head of State are campaigning for this option: it is moreover the new boss of the Renaissance presidential party, Stéphane Séjourné, who speaks in the columns of the

.

We are there in the very close circle of Emmanuel Macron.

The other explanation, but which may be complementary, is that the Head of State is unhappy with the functioning of his relative majority in the Assembly.

The vote of certain amendments by its allies against the opinion of the government has greatly annoyed.

And threatening dissolution with uncertain results could be a way of disciplining the presidential camp.

Pressure on the right

But the red rag of the dissolution also targets the opposition, and in priority The Republicans.

Senate President Gérard Larcher said again this weekend that LR would not prevent himself from tabling a motion of censure against the government.

However, a motion from the right could reasonably bring together a majority to censure the executive.

Brandishing the threat of dissolution is a deterrent, because Les Républicains could do even less well than the 62 deputies saved last June.

But, notes a communist deputy, they could also take advantage of a dissolution to negotiate a government agreement to their advantage, and therefore further weaken the authority of Emmanuel Macron.

Divisions on the left

The possibility of a dissolution divides in any case, on the left.

Insubordinate France says it is ready to take up the challenge.

This is much less true among its allies: in a poll published by the

, the Nupes is down, with 25% of voting intentions.

Hence a certain reluctance: “ 

 ”, judges a socialist executive, while an environmentalist leader claims to want to focus on current political issues rather than a hypothetical dissolution.

All in any case warn the Unsubmissive against tomorrows likely to become disillusioned.

“ 

 ”, warns a PS deputy.

It's almost riskier for them than for us.

Moreover, in the event of a new electoral agreement, we would no doubt be able to demand more candidates than the 70 we had this spring.

The danger of the far right

One thing is certain: early legislative elections can have very volatile results.

Turnout is generally lower than in post-presidential elections.

" 

 ," continues the same socialist deputy, worried in particular about the risk of strengthening the far right.

The National Rally and Reconquest are indeed the only parties in progress in the poll published Sunday in the

, and in the event of an alliance, they could exceed the 89 seats currently held.

The PS parliamentarian also believes that the presidential camp could be punished by the voters for not having been able to create the conditions for a real discussion with the opposition in the Assembly.

And to imagine Emmanuel Macron already totally disavowed and forced to resign in the event of failure of his dissolution.

►Read also: For Macron, change is not so easy

Newsletter

Receive all the international news directly in your mailbox

I subscribe

Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application

• France

• French politics

• Emmanuel Macron

• Elisabeth Borne