Two years after a presidential election contested by the loser, tensions are mounting as the November 8 midterm elections in the United States approach.
The stolen election theory put forward by Donald Trump has never been proven, due to a lack of evidence of large-scale electoral fraud.
Yet several Republican states claim to be fighting this "fraud" with new laws.
Texts denounced by organizations for the defense of democracy as attacks on the right to vote.
In total, according to the Brennan Center For Justice institute, 42 laws restricting this fundamental right have been enacted in 21 states since the beginning of 2021, when Democrat Joe Biden was sworn in as president.
Of these laws, 33 contain at least one provision that will be in effect during the Midterms in 20 states.
These numbers are much higher than in previous election cycles, with 2021 even setting a record high, according to the Brennan Center For Justice.
However, in the key States with tight races, these new texts could well weigh on the results.
The institute distinguishes between two types of laws: those that make it more difficult for voters to vote in practice and those, more recent, that open the door to partisan interference or threats against the organizers of the ballot.
The bulk of the practical restrictions focus on postal voting, which was very popular in 2020, especially by the elderly, as the Covid-19 pandemic raged.
12 times more rejected ballots in Texas
In Texas, where the conspiracy theory of Donald Trump's stolen election has circulated particularly well, a law imposes additional restrictions on obtaining and returning a ballot by mail.
And its effects have already been felt.
In the March 2022 primaries, some 25,000 mail-in ballots were rejected, a rejection rate of more than 12%, 12 times higher than in 2020. Rejections were slightly higher for Democratic voters than Republicans.
Similar texts have been passed in the key states of Florida, Georgia and Arizona, where voters will have to vote on November 8 on an amendment to the local Constitution which imposes stricter identification conditions for voting in person and by mail.
For example, the postal ballot will not be validated if the envelope that contains it does not include an identification number from the driver's license or the voter's social security card.
If presenting an identity document to vote may seem obvious in France, it is not necessarily so in the United States, as explained by Lisa Bryant, head of the political science department at California State University in Fresno and specialist of the organization of the elections: "Some say that everyone has identification papers, but this is not true. People who live in densely populated urban areas and who do not drive may not have them. Just like elderly people who no longer drive, or ethnic minorities, especially people with low incomes. Be aware that in the United States, the government does not provide ID. You have to pay to get one , for example by passing his driving license.
Voters of color targeted
Other types of restrictions have been passed across the country, further penalizing people of color.
Oklahoma has thus greatly complicated the registration on the electoral lists of inhabitants without a traditional address, such as the homeless or Native Americans living on tribal lands.
In Texas, drive-in voting has been banned.
While in 2020 the practice was particularly popular — and contested — in the densely populated and multicultural Harris County, Houston.
For its part, Georgia has limited access to outdoor ballot boxes, mailboxes that allow voters to slip their ballot away from a polling station, as we sometimes see in front of African-American churches.
In that state, during the primaries last spring, while overall turnout increased, white voter turnout was higher than black voter turnout.
A gap of six percentage points, much larger than in past primaries.
"This does not prove that it was the new restrictive laws in Georgia that widened this gap, but it does show that things are not going in the right direction", regrets the Brennan Center For Justice.
Political scientist Lisa Bryant recalls that in the United States, elections are held on a Tuesday, a day when citizens work.
In the eyes of defenders of the right to vote, all ways of fulfilling one's civic duty other than on D-Day at the polling station are therefore considered welcome to improve participation.
However, this is precisely where most attacks on the right to vote are played out today, according to the researcher.
“Either you make voting less practical (by limiting the possibility of voting by post, as we have seen, editor’s note), or you are trying, perhaps intentionally, to keep people away from the polls by making voting difficult and time-consuming (for example by reducing the number of polling stations in certain districts, which causes long queues, Ed).
Pressure from "poll watchers"
In addition to these practical restrictions, there are partisan interferences in the proper conduct of the vote.
Here again, Georgia is of particular concern.
Legislators have granted more rights to "poll watchers", these observers delegated by political parties to monitor polling stations.
A way to put pressure on the staff responsible for receiving voters and counting the ballots.
The latter had already been particularly tested in 2020, when they had to recount votes under the eyes of threatening observers, sometimes under police protection.
Lisa Bryant is concerned about the devastating effect of this type of threat on the recruitment of staff in polling stations, on which the proper holding of the ballot depends.
“Most of the time, they are volunteers who receive a small compensation, around 100 dollars a day, for long days of work that can go from 6 a.m. to midnight,” she explains. .
“Historically, we consider that they come to exercise their civic duty, to render service to their community, to participate in the electoral process. Often, they are retired – the average age is 67 years old. However, the possibility of voting earlier, which extended our electoral period by a few weeks, had already created difficulties in recruiting these volunteers, who are not available for so many days in a row.
The problem of understaffing is now compounded as these volunteers worry about possible intimidation and threats from 'poll watchers'.
So they don't want to come anymore."
Conversely, supporters of the "big lie" (those who believe that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump due to voter fraud) are registering in large numbers to serve in various positions in the electoral offices, for example to sit on postal voting control commissions.
“The possibility that they try to reject certain ballots, if they believe that a voter is not really registered on the lists, is to be feared”, according to Lisa Bryant.
The academic regrets that the “electoral codes are not equipped to deal with this influx of conspiracy theorists trying to infiltrate the electoral system”.
Intimidation
The efforts of Republican states do not stop there.
Also in Georgia, lawmakers gave the state Board of Elections oversight over what counties do, with the ability to fire local administrators – professionals – in charge of elections.
They thus risk being replaced by partisan elements who do not know the job.
And to make matters worse, another law allows the Georgia Bureau Of Investigation, a state agency, to investigate and refer cases of suspected voter fraud to the prosecutor.
Which, according to the Brennan Center For Justice, paves the way for "politically motivated" lawsuits in the courts.
“These laws serve to intimidate election officials, those working in polling stations and the voters themselves. 'to avoid criminal prosecution than to protect voters,' denounces the institute.
To these restrictions is added the problem of electoral butchering, the famous "gerrymandering".
The example of Texas is telling.
The electoral map has been reshaped in such a way that Republicans are almost immune to defeat.
Some constituencies have been reshaped in such a way as to dilute the vote of ethnic minorities.
The Democrats would have to win 58% of the vote to hope for just over 37% of the seats in the local parliament.
"The 2022 election is going to be played out on terrain deliberately designed to favor one party," concludes the Brennan Center For Justice.
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