for the continuation of peace and security
Europe needs a stable relationship between Russia and Germany
The Ukrainian war strengthened the transatlantic partnership by providing aid to Kiev and imposing sanctions on Moscow.
Reuters
The reforms proposed by Chancellor Schulz to change Berlin's policy on defense and security spending have received much attention.
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Twice in the 20th century, Russia and Germany clashed of interests, which led to a conflict between them, resulting in a world war.
But nowadays Europe finds itself once again in a turbulent position.
In the short term, the Ukraine war has strengthened the transatlantic partnership, bringing aid to Kiev, imposing sanctions on Moscow, and injecting new life into the European Union, as it begins a re-orientation toward a rapidly changing international order.
But with the development of the war in Ukraine, it is questionable whether the Europeans will be able to provide support to Ukraine unconditionally, amid growing domestic challenges.
Besides the reorientation, the revolutionary reforms proposed by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to change Berlin's policy on defense and security spending have also received much attention.
Armament increase
Europe that emerged from the Cold War became strong, as if it had become a relic of the past.
It will depend on who takes her place in influencing global issues in the coming decades.
The drift toward increased military spending, increased armaments, and a fractured security environment similar to the decades before World War I are leading to a reassessment of existing strategies.
Perhaps “controlled competition” in this environment in Europe is the desired outcome if a just peace settlement fails to take shape in Ukraine, provided that it is genuinely pursued.
For this system to succeed, the relationship between Germany and Russia is the most important.
Their shared history offers some important lessons.
necessary relationship
The German-Russian relationship is essential for the greater environment in which European countries live.
German-Russian friendship began with the Treaty of Kalisz in 1813, which was directed against the "Great Army", the main army established by Napoleon Bonaparte, during the last years of his wars that destroyed the legitimacy of the previous European order.
This proved to be an international arrangement that was created based on shared interests and values, and continued in one form or another for the next seven decades.
Although the Vienna Conference is mostly credited with preventing the spread of conflicts in Europe after the Napoleonic Wars, the relationship between Berlin and St. Petersburg was evident in itself.
During the Crimean War, which lasted from 1853-1856, Prussia (which later became the German Empire) was the only great power that did not join the anti-Russian coalition, and likewise Tsar Alexander II maintained his neutrality during Prussia's wars against Austria and France that led to the formation of German Empire.
deterioration of Europe
Although the factors contributing to the termination of the Russo-German alliance seemed inevitable and irreconcilable at the time, it is important to consider the consequences of their separation.
As a result of the separation between Russia and Germany, conditions in Europe deteriorated, as arms production increased as well as military spending and nationalist sentiments increased. Ultimately, it did not take much time for tension before the outbreak of World War I, and then World War II between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union, because the agreement Versailles was unable to release a new stable system.
Three decades after German unification, Russians, Germans, and historians alike understood the importance of friendly relations between the two countries for maintaining peace and stability in Europe.
The relatively friendly relationship between Berlin and Moscow since the end of the Cold War is the result of certain and unique factors for Germany, the most important of which is the feeling of guilt over the invasion of the Soviet Union, and the losses and suffering caused on both sides.
The Germans are very grateful to the last president of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, for allowing the peaceful unification of the two parts of Germany after four decades of separation between the eastern and western parts of Germany.
Certainly, large German investments in Russia have helped improve relations between them.
looming economic recession
It is natural for Germans and other Europeans, with economic ties to Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, to ask governments and peoples how the long-running war in Ukraine will contribute to a peaceful solution to the fighting and the restoration of stability in Europe.
Given the economic stagnation in Germany, as well as rising fuel prices in Europe, inflation and rising costs of living across Europe, the potential for social unrest on the continent should not be underestimated.
weaken Russia
Wars usually end either when one side is defeated, or when the two sides agree to a negotiated settlement.
Although the ongoing war appears to be an obvious way to weaken Russia, the risks of this strategy are greater than the supposed benefits.
As for those who expect the weakening and disintegration of Russia or the weakening of its political system, it is important to realize that if chaos ensues in Russia, or civil war breaks out in it, this will mean a comprehensive catastrophe for the entire continent of Europe.
Understanding friendly relations with Russia
In fact, friendly relations between Germany and Russia did not always lead to beneficial results, especially for the countries between them.
But the catastrophes that will afflict Europe, and the entire world, when Moscow and Berlin are in a confrontational relationship, should not be overlooked.
It is necessary to understand the friendly relations with Russia over the German economy and the prestige of the European Union.
For true pan-European security, an effectively managed relationship remains a prerequisite.
Germany's strategy toward Russia over the past three decades has focused essentially on the economy, away from NATO and the United States on defense issues.
The Ukraine war demonstrated the ineffectiveness of this policy, and necessitated its correction in any future relationship with Moscow, so that it would remain permanent.
By continuing to rely on the United States, Germany and its European partners may find themselves in an intolerable position, if Washington decides to abandon its commitments to the region, in order to devote itself to developments in East Asia, or anywhere else in the world.
Berlin's new strategy, which prioritizes its strategic and economic relations with Moscow, will be essential to the long-term stability and prosperity of the whole of Europe.
The first chancellor of Germany, Otto von Bismarck, declared that the secret of good policy was a treaty with Russia.
Although a possible agreement could be reached in the present circumstances, which would be quite different from previous agreements, the wisdom of Bismarck's view is still applicable today.
As for how to formulate an agreement and implement it fairly and consistently, it is up to the leaders of our day.
• With the development of the war in Ukraine, it has become doubtful whether the Europeans will be able to provide support to Kyiv unconditionally, amid increasing domestic challenges.
• It is normal for Germans and other Europeans, who have economic relations with Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, to ask governments and peoples, how will Ukraine's long-term war contribute to finding a peaceful solution to the fighting and restoring stability in Europe?
• For those who expect the weakening and disintegration of Russia or the weakening of its political system, it is important to realize that if chaos spreads in Russia, or civil war breaks out in it, this means a comprehensive catastrophe for the entire continent of Europe.
Artin Dresmonian ■ Researcher in Russian-German relations
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