The fifth in 4 years .. Why is Israel going to new elections? What are the chances of ending the ongoing crisis of governance?

Occupied Jerusalem

- On November 1, the Israelis go to the polls again, the fifth time in 4 years, in a situation that reflects the crisis of governance and instability in the Israeli political scene.

In an effort to resolve and overcome the fragile coalition crisis that the Yair Lapid-Naftali Bennett government experienced during more than a year of its term, after the removal of Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu from the premiership;

The political and partisan arena is witnessing intense clashes between the parties and blocs competing to return to the Knesset, while the identity of the next prime minister remains unresolved, knowing that Netanyahu and Lapid's chances of forming a government are almost equal.

The Israeli Knesset approved dissolving itself last June and heading for early elections (Al-Jazeera)

Why is Israel going to early elections again?

The early elections reflect the fifth time and the dismantling of the so-called “change” government headed by Lapid, who succeeded Bennett;

The state of confusion and political instability in light of the struggle led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to return to power.

Since 2019, Netanyahu has been mired in corruption files after the Israeli attorney general’s decision in November of that year to bring him to trial on charges of “bribery, fraud and breach of trust.”

In light of the incompatibility of partisan components in the different political camps on his survival in the political scene, Netanyahu plunged Israel into the spiral of conflict over the personality of the prime minister, a position he held for 12 years, and served as the ninth Prime Minister of Israel from 2009 to 2021. He was elected to the prime ministership. Also in May 1996, after he defeated rival Labor Party leader Shimon Peres.

How was the last government headed by Lapid and Bennett formed?

In May 2021, Netanyahu informed then-Israeli President Reuven Rivlin of his failure to form a government after the elections that took place in March of the same year, in which he obtained a majority of 59 seats, but he failed to form a government coalition representing 61 out of 120 seats. In the Knesset, his rule was overthrown.

Subsequently, the Israeli president authorized Yair Lapid, leader of the “There is a Future” party, to form a government. The latter announced in June 2021 his success with Yamina party leader Naftali Bennett to form a government that he would head alternately, by allying with 7 other parties from the right, the center and the Zionist left. For the first time, with external support from an Arab party, the United Arab List.

Naftali Bennett (right) and Yair Lapid formed a government coalition described as fragile (Reuters)

Why did the change government disintegrated after it overthrew Netanyahu?

The formation of the "Change" government (Lapid and Bennett's coalition) came by taking advantage of the parties' differences over the personality of Netanyahu, who leads the right-wing camp.

This was the only common denominator between them, amid waves of ideological, political, social and religious contradictions, and amid contradictions in their positions on internal and external issues, most notably the Palestinian issue.

That is why the Lapid-Bennett government seemed - according to the researcher in Israeli affairs Antoine Shalhat - fragile and unstable, and its disintegration was considered a matter of time, as its continuation was dependent on the person of Netanyahu, who during the term of the change government expressed his willingness to make concessions by turns over the premiership, after several sessions of His trial continues.

Is Netanyahu the problem or the solution to the crisis of governance in Israel?

Netanyahu's survival in the political scene and his return again to resolve the elections box after the disintegration of the government of change and the severe crises that accompanied it, indicate that Israel is on the threshold of a new political stage, according to Israeli political analyst Akiva Eldar.

Since 2019, Netanyahu has been unable to form a stable government and has kept the Likud and the "Haredi" (religious) parties hostage to his strategy for returning to power, and he is also betting in the upcoming 25th Knesset elections on the rise of the "Religious Zionism" coalition calculated on the extreme right to form a narrow government. This creates a state of intense polarization and deepens the rift in Israeli society.

Eldar explained to Al Jazeera Net that Netanyahu - even if he manages to form a narrow right-wing government - will remain the problem, not the solution to getting out of the impasse of the governance crisis in Israel;

Thus, the scenario of a sixth election remains possible if Netanyahu remains in the leadership of the Likud Party, as the analyst expects that an extremist right-wing government will not survive for long, as the world, the international community and even the US administration will not accept such a government.

Antoine Shalhat: The new elections are not necessarily a recipe for political stability (Al-Jazeera)

What are the challenges facing Netanyahu in the upcoming political and electoral scene?

According to researcher Shalhat, heading to early parliamentary elections for the fifth time is not necessarily a guaranteed recipe for not reproducing the causes of political instability and the crisis of governance in Israel itself.

The crisis is likely to escalate if the parties in the Change Camp do not make concessions that would show their willingness to join a government alternately with Netanyahu in the event that he continues to lead the Likud party and the extreme right camp, knowing that Netanyahu still maintains his popularity in Israeli society.

To ensure his return to power, Netanyahu will seek to dismantle the camp of change and co-opt one of its vehicles for any future government that he may form, in an attempt to dissipate the party alliance on the basis of "with or against Netanyahu", which is the state of polarization that Israel has been experiencing since 2019.

Will the elections produce a balance between the conflicting camps?

The state of polarization is concentrated between the extreme right and the traditional right, while the Israeli Zionist left is marginal and has no influence on the political reality.

The bet for the Likud Party in the scenario of forming the next government is to create a balance between Netanyahu's camp (the extreme right) and the camp that opposes him.

However, this possibility is unlikely, given that Israel went to a fifth Knesset election, mainly because of Netanyahu's personality and corruption.

Accordingly, the features and identity of the next government will be related to many security developments, events and alliances, taking into account the possibilities of the governance crisis remaining even if Lapid forms the next government, as well as the possibility of forming a government headed by Netanyahu again.