Wagner, an armed wing that can turn against Vladimir Putin?

• The Wagner group, which operates in Ukraine alongside the official Russian army, is gaining more and more importance on the ground and in the media. 

• The Institute for the Study of War thus hypothesizes that its leader, Evguéni Prigojine, could become a danger to Vladimir Putin. 

• Carole Grimaud-Potter, professor of geopolitics on Russian influence at the University of Montpellier and Michel Goya, former colonel of the navy troops, historian and strategist, nevertheless think that it does not tend to seize power and turn against the Russian head of state.

Would Vladimir Putin be threatened in his own camp?

The Wagner Group gains influence on the ground and in the media in the context of the war in Ukraine.

Its leader, Evguéni Prigojine, openly criticizes the management of the Russian army and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

This leads the American

, The Institute for the Study of War, to hypothesize a threat to the Russian president.

"Evgeny Prigojine continues to increase his power and is setting up a military structure parallel to the Russian armed forces, which could threaten Putin's power, at least in the information space", suggests the study published on Monday 24 October.

The leader of the armed group even allows himself to make these criticisms of the Russian military effort directly in the ear of the Kremlin.

A revelation which "shows how much its influence is growing as Moscow's war wavers", comments in turn the

.

From there to shake the head of state in place for more than twenty years?

"It is gaining importance in terms of media coverage of the war in Russia", confirms to

Carole Grimaud-Potter, professor of geopolitics on Russian influence at the University of Montpellier.

However, Evguéni Prigojine has "no interest in bringing down power in addition to not having the material means to seize power by force", adds Michel Goya, former colonel of the navy troops, historian and strategist.

A growing influence

Created on the ground in the Donbass in 2014, the Wagner group does not officially exist.

In fact, private militias are banned in Russia.

However, if Moscow continually denies its existence, the evidence of its presence in various conflicts around the world where Moscow is indirectly or directly involved is no longer in doubt.

We find traces of these mercenaries as well in Libya, Syria, as in Mali, and more widely in the Sahel, and of course, today, "it has become essential in Ukraine", affirms Carole Grimaud-Potter.

Its leader has also publicly acknowledged that he was at the head of this private militia on September 26th.

Enough to make it exist despite the denials at the top.

Especially since his action on the ground is far from negligible.

When the Russian army suffers numerous setbacks against the Ukrainian forces, particularly in the Kherson region, Wagner is the only one to continue to advance, as in Bakhmout where the fighting between the Ukrainian and Russian armies is raging, according to Volodymyr Zelensky.

“It is certainly the least bad Russian armed force at the moment”, sums up Michel Goya.

“Wagner becomes indispensable and Yevgeny Prigojine relies on that” to whisper in the ear of the Kremlin, he continues.

“Evguéni Prigojine then gained importance in terms of media coverage in Russia, in addition to his influence on the ground, explains Carole Grimaud-Potter.

Wagner has become a myth.

»

This influence is materialized by the change of strategy adopted on the ground under the advice of the boss of Wagner.

The reputedly ruthless Sergueï Sourovikine was appointed as the new commander, then strikes on the energy infrastructures were ordered, finally, there is the partial mobilization undertaken since the end of September, "at the request of Evguéni Prigojine", specifies Carole Grimaud- Potter.

If Vladimir Poutine applies this line of the Russian hard line, it is because he listens to what Evguéni Prigojine proposes to him.

"Vladimir Putin has understood that the decisions taken are sometimes inappropriate with the movements on the ground" and takes into account the proposals of the one who is also nicknamed "Putin's cook", develops the professor of geopolitics.

Public criticism of the Russian military

Today, Yevgeny Prigojine has assumed such importance in the conflict in Ukraine that he even allows himself public criticism of the Russian army and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

According to the

, a member of Putin's inner circle expressed his disagreement directly to him about how to wage the war in Ukraine.

This member would be Evguéni Prigojine, according to American officials quoted in the daily.

The boss of Wagner also "broadcast a video of the mobilized criticizing the organization and the conditions of support in the Russian army", recalls Michel Goya according to whom the number two in charge of mobilization was subsequently arrested. .

These public criticisms, if they seem daring in a regime as authoritarian as Russia, are however not directed at Vladimir Putin.

“Evguéni Prigojine especially criticizes the Russian army and Sergei Shoigu, claiming to do things better,” underlines the military historian.

He is not the only one to do so.

Another warlord belonging to the hard wing of the regime, Ramzan Kadyrov, Chechen president at the head of the kadyrovtsy, also went there with his little criticism of the Russian army, even calling on Vladimir Putin to use nuclear weapons of weak Powerful.

The Chechen also applauded the appointment of Sergei Surovikin as head of “the special operation in Ukraine.

"These two characters want a total war", affirms Michel Goya.

These criticisms are therefore constructive and intended to help Russia win.

Yevgeny Prigojine never criticized the very fact of waging war on Ukraine, on the contrary.

And if there is a rise in strength of these companies, "we cannot say, for the moment, that they can become an enemy of Vladimir Putin",

Interests outside the Kremlin

If these criticisms indirectly target the Kremlin, "it's more a way of telling the boss that he is in bad company", sums up the historian.

“As in the feudal era, he continues, there are small lords, small fiefdoms, who have their army in parallel with the regular army and each plays his own game to place himself.

A war between different warlords.

Experts find it difficult to imagine that this rise in power would take on greater proportions, to the point of overthrowing the head of state.

And it is, moreover, not in the interest of Yevgeny Prigojine.

“It was Putin who did it, who allowed him to get rich,” adds Carole Grimaud-Potter.

He has no interest in this stopping.

“For the moment, he is taking advantage of the situation, why would he want to overthrow a regime that has put him where he is?

“, she insists.

Our file on the war in Ukraine

Especially since Evguéni Prigojine has economic interests elsewhere, particularly in Africa where Wagner has taken more and more space and "continues to gain ground", notes the professor of geopolitics, especially since the end of Operation Barkhane. led by France.

“Evguéni Prigojine is a businessman, pragmatic, he will go where business is most successful,” she insists.

Even if he wanted to grant himself power, he would leave feathers there.

He doesn't have the ability to do that.

Neither political nor military.

“He is part of the circles close to Vladimir Poutine but not that much”, explains Carole Grimaud-Potter.

Its power is essentially military.

And even there, “he does not have the means to take power by force”, abounds Michel Goya.

What if Putin was weakened by a defeat in Ukraine?

It is impossible to predict what follow-up to imagine for the continuation of the Russian regime, but Evguéni Prigojine does not seem about to replace his boss.

World

War in Ukraine: In Bakhmout, Wagner soldiers are "single use"

World

War in Ukraine: Wagner's mercenaries erect 'dragon's teeth' to slow kyiv

• War in Ukraine

• Russia

• Syria

• World

• Vladimir Poutine

• Libya

• mali