War in Ukraine: the Kakhovka dam, a weapon of mass destruction?

Located about forty kilometers from the front line, the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, in the Kherson region, was "mined" by Russian forces, according to kyiv. Moscow…

With the Ukrainian counter-offensive and the battle of Kherson approaching, the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station finds itself at the center of attention in Ukraine and could play a key role in the continuation of the war.

Since Thursday, October 20, kyiv has accused Russia of having "mined" the dam, a highly strategic infrastructure located on the Dnieper River, with the aim of flooding the region.

Fearing a "large-scale disaster", Ukraine is asking the UN for an international observation mission, while Moscow denies it altogether.

Fallen into Russian hands at the start of their offensive launched on February 24, the Kakhovka power station dam, located about sixty kilometers east of Kherson, in the south of the country, was a strategic target for Moscow.

A key infrastructure for Crimea

And for good reason: this huge hydroelectric dam

Just over 3,000 meters long, built in the 1950s, supplies water to the Crimean peninsula, annexed by Moscow in 2014.

Its reservoir is essential for the irrigation of the Black Sea lowlands.

The dam regulates the waters of the Dnieper and creates an artificial lake that also helps to maintain the temperature of the reactors of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant.

With the advance of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the Kakhovka dam, still under Russian control, is now only about forty kilometers from the front line.

kyiv is sounding the alarm

The Ukrainians fear their arrival on the site.

Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russian forces since Thursday of having "undermined the dam and the units of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station".

The Ukrainian president is sounding the alarm at the risk of what he calls a "large-scale disaster" that Russia is "consciously" preparing.

"We call on the UN, the EU and other organizations to organize an international observation mission from Kakhovka. International experts must arrive immediately (at the site), as well as Ukrainian personnel," urged the Prime Minister on Friday. Ukrainian Minister Denys Chmygal at a government meeting.

On Monday, Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his accusations against Moscow, hammering: "It was Russian troops who mined the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station and are blackmailing us by threatening to blow it up."

Thousands of potential victims, according to kyiv

kyiv is right to be afraid, because if the installation were to be destroyed, the consequences would be disastrous.

An explosion of the dam would create a kind of mini-tsunami and the banks of the Dnieper would be submerged for several days.

The entire region would be flooded.

According to the Ukrainian authorities, a construction explosion could cause several thousand victims and cause the flooding of dozens of cities.

“More than 80 localities, including the city of Kherson, will find themselves in the zone of rapid flooding,” Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday.

The Ukrainian president also fears that the destruction of the dam, whose artificial water retention is 240 km long and up to 23 km wide, "would destroy the water supply of a large part of the south of the Ukraine".

Zaporizhia power plant under threat

An even more devastating scenario is feared.

Ukraine fears that the destruction of the installation could affect the cooling of the reactors of the nuclear power plant of Zaporijjia, the largest in Europe, which draws its water from the artificial lake of the dam.

So said Monday the Director of Ukrainian Military Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, for whom blowing up the dam "would also destroy any possibility of the existence of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, which is inextricably linked (to the Kakhovka dam )".

Towards a "false flag" attack?

For kyiv, the goal of Russia in destroying the dam would be to flood the entire area in order to stop the advance of Ukrainian troops in the region, said on Twitter one of the presidential advisers, Mykhailo Podolyak.

According to him, what he calls the "Surovikine plan" - named after Sergei Surovikin, the new commander of Russian forces in Ukraine - would "undermine the dam and the transformers, carry out a forced deportation of Ukrainians and flood the territory to stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive".

According to the Ukrainian official, Russia is preparing a "man-made disaster".

A real "Surovikin plan" for Kakhovskaya HPP:

1. To mine the dam and transformers

2. Ukrainians forced deportation and disloyal population resettlement to RF

3. Flooding territory to stop 🇺🇦 counteroffensive and block their own retreat

Russia is preparing a man-made disaster

— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) October 20, 2022

According to a report by the American think tank Institute for the Study of War published last Wednesday, Moscow could be preparing a "false flag" attack against the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station.

Russia could then blame the attack on the Ukrainians.

After withdrawing from Kherson, the Russians would blow up the barrage, before pointing the finger at kyiv.

According to kyiv, blowing up the dam would be a weapon of mass destruction for a struggling Russia;

a way for Putin to turn the tide of the war by delaying Ukrainian advances.

Denial of Moscow

On the Russian side, we deny.

Pro-Russian authorities in the Kherson region have denied any installation of mines on the Kakhovka dam, denouncing "lies" by President Zelensky.

However, they are currently carrying out evacuations in the region: faced with the rapid advance of the Ukrainian army, they called on Saturday for all civilians to leave the regional capital "immediately".

Among the evacuees, Konstantin, a resident of Kherson interviewed by the Reuters news agency, arrived in Olechky, a city beyond the reach of floods in the event of the destruction of the dam.

"We are not afraid of war. We are just afraid that the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station could be bombed," he said.

"I am afraid for my family. I am moving (from Kherson) for my family."

For his part, Russian General Surovikin claims since last Tuesday to have received information that Ukrainian forces were preparing a massive strike on the dam, probably with Himars missiles supplied by the United States.

communication war

The two belligerents in any case indulge in a communication war around the attack on the dam, which each agitates as a threat.

The Director of Ukrainian Military Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, however, qualified President Zelensky's remarks on Monday: "If it explodes, the Kakhovka High Dam will slow down the Ukrainian forces for only two weeks."

The dam would only be "partially mined", not enough to blow it up since "it would take tons of explosives to destroy it".

Such an attack, he continued, would represent an environmental disaster with a cost to the Russians: "They would experience total flooding of the area on the left bank of [Russian-occupied] Kherson."

For Gulliver Cragg, the France 24 correspondent in Ukraine, the allegations of the two camps seem "incredible".

"According to the Ukrainians, the main benefit for the Russians would be to accuse the Ukrainians. While no one would believe them and then the Ukrainians do not have the possibility of blowing up this dam. They cannot physically blow it up because they don't have access to it," he said.

“It is not with Himar missiles that one can destroy a block of concrete as strong as that,” he adds.

As for a Russian attack, the hypothesis seems unlikely: "If the Russians blew up the dam while a large part of their forces are still on the right bank, how would they cross the river? It would be suicidal", analyzes Gulliver Cragg, adding that Moscow "would jeopardize Crimea's water supply and make it difficult to cool the reactors of the Zaporizhia power plant".

According to the France 24 correspondent in Ukraine, "the two sides are in a game of communication where each accuses the other of the most implausible things".