Since Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine, Moscow has repeatedly threatened Kyiv, NATO and the West with nuclear weapons if necessary.
But in the face of these serious Moscow threats, there is a risk of a similar, very dangerous response from the West if Moscow implements its threat to use nuclear weapons, according to Peter Huisy, a senior researcher specializing in defense affairs and head of the geo-strategic analysis department at the Hudson Institute.
In an article for the American magazine "National Interest", Hoese notes that many officials and experts in the West have suggested that the United States exclude nuclear deterrence completely in its response to Russia.
But the irony is that such a decision would encourage Putin to use nuclear weapons, according to the writer.
He said French President Emmanuel Macron went further, saying recently that the Western response should not include the use of nuclear weapons under any circumstances.
While Leon Panetta, the former US Secretary of Defense, called on the United States to respond, he suggested that it be through retaliatory strikes with powerful conventional weapons against Russian forces in Ukraine.
5 Reasons for Western Nuclear Response
The writer says that despite all of the above, any decision to follow a policy of not responding with nuclear weapons to Russia would be a grave mistake for five reasons:
The
first is that limiting the American response to the use of conventional weapons will not deter Russia from using nuclear weapons again in its retaliatory response.
When Russia realizes that the West may defeat it with conventional weapons, what will prevent it from using nuclear weapons for the same reason that it intended to launch nuclear strikes in the first place?
The
second is that American military planners recognized in a congressional session that America can win a conventional military conflict with Russia only if it does not use nuclear weapons in the war.
The
third is that Russia changed its military strategy in April 1999 to what former US Air Force General John Hyten described as the “step up to victory” principle that provides for the development of small-scale, highly accurate nuclear weapons for use on the battlefield.
Fourth ,
Putin sees his country’s superiority over America in terms of nuclear capabilities, as Russia’s arsenal of nuclear bombs and short-range nuclear weapons is estimated at between 2,000 to 5,000 nuclear warheads, compared to America’s arsenal of the same type of weapons, which does not exceed 200 nuclear warheads deployed on board. Fighter planes are in Europe and none in Asia.
The
fifth and final, according to the author of the article, is that excluding a nuclear response gives Putin the freedom to use nuclear weapons without fear of punishment, and this leads to lowering the threshold at which a nuclear war can be launched.