China News Agency, New York, October 17 (Reporter Wang Fan) Bloomberg released data from a model established by its US economists on the 17th, showing that the probability of a recession in the US economy in the next 12 months reaches 100%, much higher than the previous one. Value 65%.
The "recession probability model" was built by Bloomberg Chief Economist Anna Wong and economist Eliza Winger.
The model data shows that the probability of recession in the U.S. economy is rising in multiple cycles in the future. Among them, the probability of recession in 10 months has increased from 0% to 25%, and the probability of recession in 11 months has increased from 30% to 25%. 73%, and the 12-month recession probability has risen from 65% to 100%.
According to the report, the model shows that tightening financial conditions, persistent inflation and the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations are increasing the risk of a U.S. economic contraction, and the possibility of an earlier recession is also rising.
This is in stark contrast to the upbeat tone of US President Joe Biden.
Biden has repeatedly emphasized that he does not see a recession in the U.S., and if there is, it will be very slight.
In fact, in addition to the data models, Wall Street economists' median forecast for the probability of a U.S. recession is also rising.
In a Bloomberg survey this month, 42 economists forecast a 60 percent chance of a U.S. recession within a year, up from 50 percent a month ago.
In the latest Wall Street Journal survey, more than 70 economists forecast a 63 percent chance of a recession in the U.S. economy within a year, up from 49 percent in July.
"The drag from higher interest rates and a stronger dollar is huge and will reduce U.S. domestic production next year," said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies Group, a New York-based investment bank. Gross (GDP) growth decreased by about 2.5%."
Diane Swonk of KPMG says the Fed is choosing the lesser of two evils - opting for a recession that will lead to higher unemployment over a more corrosive high inflation. risk.
Some analysts say that as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates continuously, the U.S. labor market is expected to weaken in the next few months or even years, and both companies and workers will face pain.
On the 17th, data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that a measure of New York state's manufacturing industry contracted for the third consecutive month this month, and companies were more pessimistic about business conditions in early 2023 than before.
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