In the Ukraine war, Belarus has so far played the role of a deployment area.

"We take part in it," said ruler Alexandr Lukashenko last week about Russia's "special operation" against their common neighbor, "but we don't kill anyone.

We don't send our soldiers anywhere.” Could that change?

On Monday, Lukashenko told the heads of his security apparatus that he had reached an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg at the end of last week to set up a "joint regional troop formation".

Its basis will be the Belarusian army.

Frederick Smith

Political correspondent for Russia and the CIS in Moscow.

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In a quip, Lukashenko interjected that while he doesn't expect many soldiers ("they have enough problems"), "more than a thousand men" would arrive in Belarus.

Lukashenko did not say how big the association should be and what specific purpose it should serve, only generally pointed to a “tightening of the western borders of the union state” with Russia.

According to a military doctrine of the entity, a joint force can be formed at any time, not just in times of danger.

Belarus' military doctrine, on the other hand, stipulates that if there is a "growing threat of war," a "combined command" for such an association should be set up.

There was no mention of this in either Minsk or Moscow.

Asked about Lukashenko's move, Putin's spokesman briefly referred to the legal situation in the Union state.

Moscow has probably refrained from calling for more support due to Lukashenko's position, which has been weakened since the wave of protests in 2020, and in any case does not have a high opinion of the capabilities of the Belarusian military.

But given the supply problems in Ukraine, Putin could now put pressure on Lukashenko.

Lukashenko has little capacity for the association

Openly entering the war would be very unpopular in Belarus, and Lukashenko needs his security apparatus to stay in power.

The West appears to be a way out: Lukashenko accused Kyiv of “planning attacks on Belarusian territory”, but above all outlined a Western threat scenario in which Belarus was protecting Russia.

"In the West," he said, there was a false rumor that Belarus wanted to "directly" join Russia's "special operation."

NATO and "a number of European countries" are considering "possible variants of aggression against our country, up to and including a nuclear strike".

The aim is to take action against Belarus and Russia at the same time.

His goal is peace, said Lukashenko.

"If you want peace, you have to prepare for war." You have to thwart the plans of "scoundrels" who are trying to drag us into the dispute." Lukashenko's move seemed more like an attempt not to get even more deeply involved in Putin's war will.

Pavel Muraveyko, a senior member of Lukashenko's Security Council, summed up the approach on Belarusian state television: "We stand shoulder-to-shoulder with our Russian brothers and will not allow stabs in their backs or attacks on them." But only if in If there were "peace and order" in Belarus, Russia's western regions would also have "calm".