In an interview with NHK, Andrei Kortunov, chairman of the Russian government-affiliated think tank "Russian Council on International Affairs," said in an interview with NHK that the Putin administration has changed the cause of the military invasion from a special military operation to a fight to defend the homeland. showed.
In addition, he touched on the danger of using nuclear forces and appealed for the need for dialogue between Russia and the United States.
Regarding Unilateral "Annexation" and "Mobilization"
Referring to the war situation in Ukraine, Kortunov said, "The regime is now trying to present what it used to be a 'special military operation' to a 'patriotic war.' If it happens, it will be claimed as a violation of territorial integrity and will be dealt with accordingly." In response to the unilateral annexation of four Ukrainian provinces, the Putin administration has launched a military invasion. He pointed out that the aim is to change the war into a battle to defend the homeland and gain the understanding of the people, including mobilization.
Regarding the widespread confusion in Russia over the mobilization, he said, "A mobilization of 300,000 people would not create a serious risk to political stability, but I do not know if it will be limited to this." , he pointed out that if the scale of mobilization increases, it may further affect the administration of President Putin.
He also said, "The mobilization was in response to demands from right-wingers and hawks," referring to the possibility that hard-liners within the administration are becoming more hostile.
The prospect of a ceasefire
On the other hand, Kortunov said at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit held last month that China and India expressed concern about military aggression, saying, "For President Putin, it may have been a stimulus to quickly end this conflict. If we mark the annexed territories as 'victory', it will be argued that the objectives of the military operation have been achieved to a large extent," he said, referring to President Putin's consideration of the concerns of allies and the decision to annex the country. I touched on the possibility that I would like to.
On the other hand, he added, "It is clear that the annexation decision closes the possibility of a near-term ceasefire with Ukraine. I cannot imagine that the leading Ukraine would accept a significant loss of territory." The prospects for a ceasefire in the region are very low.
the use of nuclear forces
Regarding the possibility of Russia using its nuclear arsenal, Kortunov said, "Russian leaders are concerned about increased military support from the United States and Europe. If we get involved on a large scale, it will increase," he said.
“The Putin regime can now claim that the war is taking place directly on Russian territory, with the active involvement not only of Ukraine but of the West, including those with nuclear weapons,” he said. He said the unilateral annexation of the two states would increase the risk of Putin's use of nuclear weapons.
He then stressed the need for dialogue between the United States and Russia, stating, "Above all else, this is an issue between Russia and the United States, which are nuclear superpowers, and we need some sort of consultation and contact."
The future of Russia is uncertain
On the other hand, regarding the presidential election scheduled for the year after next in Russia, Mr. Kortunov said, ``It depends on many factors, such as what happens to the special military operation and what happens to the Russian economy.''
“There are hawks who want even greater military activity, and there are doves who want peace as soon as possible. He indicated that the power struggle would intensify.