China News Agency, Beijing, October 9th: How does China build a "first line of defense" for disaster prevention and mitigation?
——Interview with Xu Xiaofeng, President of China Meteorological Service Association and former Deputy Director of China Meteorological Administration
China News Agency reporter Kan Feng
Zhengzhou, Henan Province received nearly one-year rainfall in a day; the Central Meteorological Observatory issued a high temperature warning for 41 consecutive days; Poyang Lake, which entered a dry season in early August, created the earliest record in 71 years... In the past two years, abnormal weather has often become hot topic.
Look around the world, from the worst drought in Europe in 500 years to the floods in Pakistan that killed thousands.
Against the background of intensified global warming, frequent extreme weather is becoming an important variable affecting the economic and social development of various countries.
According to statistics, from 1990 to 2019, in the past 30 years, 91.6% of major natural disasters, 67.6% of deaths, 83.7% of economic losses and 92.4% of insurance losses in the world were caused by meteorological and its derived disasters.
"Disaster reduction is efficiency increase".
In the past ten years, in the process of promoting high-quality development in China, this sentence has become both a development experience and a social consensus.
The 2021 "China Climate Bulletin" shows that in 2021, extreme weather and climate events will occur frequently in China, and the overall climate will be deviated. However, compared with the average of the past ten years, the direct economic losses caused by meteorological disasters will be less.
Looking at a longer time axis, in China, the proportion of economic losses caused by meteorological disasters to GDP has dropped from 0.65% in 2012 to 0.29% in 2021.
At 22:25 on August 17, 2022, a sudden heavy rainfall occurred in Datong County, Xining City, Qinghai Province, causing flash floods and mudslides.
Fire and rescue personnel conduct search and rescue at the Datong flash flood disaster site.
Photo by Ma Mingyan
Xu Xiaofeng, president of the China Meteorological Service Association and former deputy director of the China Meteorological Administration, introduced in an exclusive interview with China News Agency "China Focus Face-to-Face" that this is related to China's continuous improvement in forecasting and early warning and disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities in recent years.
On the one hand, meteorological forecasting and early warning capabilities have been continuously strengthened, and meteorological capabilities as the "first line of defense" for disaster prevention and mitigation have been significantly improved; , The disaster relief mechanism has been continuously improved.
Xu Xiaofeng said that in the national disaster prevention and mitigation system, meteorology is not only a "watchtower", but also a "beacon tower" and a "starting gun". The information of the meteorological department is sent early or not, whether it is accurate or not, and whether it is used well or not. It is crucial to the operation of the entire disaster prevention and mitigation system.
In terms of setting the amount of advance, today, the accuracy rate of the rainstorm warning of the China Meteorological Department has reached 89%, the warning time of severe convective weather has been advanced to 38 minutes, and the 24-hour error of typhoon track forecast has been reduced to 65 kilometers.
In terms of the "last mile", the national emergency early warning information release system has established four levels of early warning information release centers at the national, provincial, city, and county levels, with an early warning public coverage rate of over 80%, and an early warning release time limit of 3 to 8 minutes.
However, a serious trend has to be alarmed.
"The frequency and intensity of extreme weather are increasing, and they are showing abnormal characteristics." Xu Xiaofeng said, this has brought new challenges to the overall coordination of the meteorological service capacity and disaster prevention, mitigation and relief system in the new era.
Build a meteorological disaster monitoring and early warning service system that is more subdivided and delivered more accurately, improve the cross-regional and cross-departmental emergency linkage mechanism, improve the scientific decision-making level of urban managers, and improve the public's meteorological scientific literacy... Seen in Xu Xiaofeng Now, these are the links that must be strengthened in the disaster prevention and mitigation system.
In July this year, China issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for National Comprehensive Disaster Prevention and Mitigation", striving to basically realize the modernization of natural disaster prevention and control systems and prevention and control capabilities by 2035, and to effectively provide basic living assistance to the people affected by disasters within 10 hours of the occurrence of disasters. Every village (community) in urban and rural areas has at least one disaster information officer... This 4th comprehensive plan for disaster prevention and mitigation released at the national level in China has macro goals and clarifies the timetable and schedule of many specific tasks. task book.
It is better to have ten defenses and nine empties, and not to fail just in case.
Xu Xiaofeng said that disaster prevention and mitigation not only requires technological upgrading and mechanism improvement, but also requires ideological vigilance and innovation in development concepts.
(Finish)
Xu Xiaofeng (right), president of the China Meteorological Service Association and former deputy director of the China Meteorological Administration, was interviewed by China News Agency "China Focus Face to Face" in Beijing.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Sheng Jiapeng
Excerpts from the interview are as follows:
China News Service reporter: This summer, we have experienced a long period of high temperature weather. What is the relationship between the "heat" felt by the public and the "warmness" of global warming?
Xu Xiaofeng:
The climate change we often talk about is indeed characterized by warming, but this "warmth" is really different from the "hot" we feel this year.
Taking 100 years as a unit, the global average temperature has increased by 1.2°C. This warming is a slow rising process, which is not intuitively felt every day, but will be reflected in many aspects such as melting of glaciers and snow and rising sea levels.
The rare high temperature that we feel breaking the extreme value is actually the result of the increase in the frequency of extreme weather under the background of climate warming.
Such extreme weather may manifest itself as extremely heavy rainfall, such as last year's heavy rain in Zhengzhou, or it may manifest as extreme high temperature and little rainfall, such as the widespread severe drought in southern my country this year.
China News Service reporter: So, has the frequency and intensity of weather disasters increased in recent years? Will this be the norm or trend in the future?
Xu Xiaofeng:
The answer is yes, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather are increasing, and they are showing abnormal characteristics.
For example, before the heavy rain in Henan last year, there have been 5 heavy rainfall events in Henan province since 1949. However, during the heavy rain last year, the maximum accumulated rainfall, the maximum hourly rainfall and the daily rainfall in Henan were all greater than the above 5 events. , both exceeded the extreme value.
The report released by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has given a clear conclusion that the frequency of extreme weather and climate events is increasing in the context of climate warming.
Our China Climate Bulletin also confirms that the frequency of extreme weather in China is increasing.
For example, the World Meteorological Organization made a prediction this year that hot weather may become the "standard" of European summer, and the frequent trend of high temperature caused by climate change will continue until at least 2060.
The occurrence of this phenomenon is highly uncertain. It does not mean that one or two years have passed. This year is a high temperature, and it is difficult to determine what type of extreme weather will be encountered next year.
Therefore, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather may be a problem that we will face for a long time in the future, and everyone should pay more attention to this.
On July 21, 2021, the main urban area of Zhengzhou City, Henan Province was hit by heavy rain.
Photo by Wang Zhongju issued by China News Agency.
Image source: CNSPHOTO
China News Service reporter: Last year, it rained heavily in Zhengzhou, and this year there was a severe drought in some areas in the south. What are the difficulties in forecasting and early warning for such extreme weather?
Xu Xiaofeng:
We need to eliminate a misunderstanding that weather and climate forecasts cannot be 100% accurate.
The "quasi" here is a relative concept. For example, I report that there will be heavy rain in that place tomorrow, but it is difficult to accurately predict where the rain will fall.
At the beginning of this year, when we were discussing the climate characteristics of the whole year, the high temperature in the Yangtze River Basin had been circled.
However, the high temperature range this summer has spread to the entire Yangtze River Basin, and even the temperature of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is on the high side. The occurrence of such a wide range of extreme high temperature is beyond our ability to predict.
In terms of specific weather forecasts, we should not expect a very accurate forecast 24 or 48 hours in advance. This is impossible.
However, the public must pay attention to follow the weather forecast, and the forecast is being revised at any time.
With the improvement of meteorological technology, we can now continuously update the latest weather forecast to the public through the Internet.
It may not be accurate enough at first, but by constantly tracking changes, adjusting and correcting, it will become more and more accurate and closer to the actual situation.
Data map: Aerial photography of Shijiu Lake, a lake in the Yangtze River Basin.
The continuous low rainfall has kept the water level down here.
Photo by Yang Bo
China News Service: According to the 2021 China Climate Bulletin, extreme weather and climate events are frequently occurring in China, but the losses from meteorological disasters have declined compared with normal years. How do you view the role of meteorology in disaster prevention and mitigation?
Xu Xiaofeng:
Yes, in 2021, the overall climate of our country will be deviated, but compared with the average of the past ten years, the direct economic losses caused by meteorological disasters will be less. ability related.
It can be understood from two aspects.
On the one hand, the capability level of my country's meteorological infrastructure has been significantly improved, providing strong technical support for meteorological forecasting, and meteorological capabilities as the "first line of defense" for disaster prevention and mitigation have been significantly improved.
On the other hand, in the national disaster prevention and mitigation system, the weather is the "starting gun". After the weather warning and forecast is issued, the emergency, water conservancy, natural resources, agriculture, communications and other departments coordinate and link to deal with the weather and its derivatives and secondary disasters. This is the construction of our national emergency disaster reduction system. The development and improvement of this system has played a key role in disaster prevention and reduction.
China News Service reporter: You mentioned that meteorology is the "first line of defense" for disaster prevention and mitigation. In the past 10 years, what progress has been made in the construction of this "first line of defense", and what level is it in the world?
Xu Xiaofeng:
In 2006, the State Council issued "Several Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Development of Meteorological Undertakings".
It is mentioned that by 2020, a meteorological modernization system with complete structure and advanced functions will be built, so that the overall meteorological strength will be close to the world's advanced level in the same period, and some fields will reach the world's leading level.
In the past 10 years, we can see that in many fields of meteorology, we have not only reached the world's advanced level, but also led the world in some places.
For example, in July 2021, the "Dawn Star" Fengyun-3E satellite was successfully launched, making my country the only country in the world that has the ability to network and observe meteorological satellites in three orbits in the morning, afternoon, and evening at the same time.
To list another set of figures, as of now, my country has built 7 atmospheric background stations, 25 climate observatories, over 70,000 ground automatic meteorological observation stations, 120 high-altitude meteorological observation stations, 236 new generation weather radars, 7 It is a comprehensive meteorological observation system composed of Fengyun meteorological satellites in orbit, and the scale of radar monitoring network is the largest in the world, and it is also one of the few countries in the world that has both polar-orbiting and geostationary meteorological satellites.
Today, the coverage rate of ground meteorological observation stations in towns and villages in my country has reached 100%; 10,930 national-level ground meteorological observation stations have been built, which is 4.5 times that of 2012.
Xu Xiaofeng, president of the China Meteorological Service Association and former deputy director of the China Meteorological Administration, accepted an exclusive interview with China News Agency "China Focus Face to Face" in Beijing.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Sheng Jiapeng
China News Service reporter: In addition to the obvious extreme weather, what risks and challenges will "global warming" bring to our economic and social development?
Xu Xiaofeng:
Many people think that climate change is a matter of weather and climate. In fact, we are now more concerned about the impact of climate change on human activities, rather than a natural change.
For example, for water sources, the melting of ice and snow has directly led to the gradual disappearance of solid reservoirs in some rivers; for agriculture, rising temperatures prevent some crops from freezing to death in winter; for oceans, the ocean absorbs There will be an acidification process after carbon dioxide. This acidification will cause damage to the marine ecology. In addition, sea level rise will directly threaten the land area of some island countries and so on.
The frequent occurrence of extreme weather caused by climate change will also have derivative problems.
For example, the drought in the Sichuan-Chongqing region this summer, which was originally a very rich area of hydropower generation, this summer's rare high temperature and little rainfall, unexpectedly led to the shortage of hydropower generation in West China, which had an impact on people's production and life.
So, don't think that climate change is just a temperature issue, it will bring systemic challenges to human existence.
Data map: Greenland Ice Sheet.
Photo by Jason Briner
China News Service reporter: Does meteorology also need to strengthen international cooperation in dealing with climate change, especially in disaster prevention and mitigation? What specific aspects need international cooperation?
Xu Xiaofeng:
In terms of strengthening meteorological services, there has been good international cooperation in weather and climate forecasting services among countries.
For example, my country has provided Fengyun meteorological satellite data services for countries and regions along the “Belt and Road” by cooperating in the construction of Fengyun meteorological satellite direct receiving stations overseas and strengthening the sharing of Fengyun meteorological satellite data products. Currently, it has covered 124 countries and regions, with 30 10 countries have registered as international users of the FYU Meteorological Satellite Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Emergency Guarantee Mechanism, and have opened green service channels to 42 countries.
From the perspective of coping with climate change, monitoring and researching global climate change cannot rely solely on scientists from one country. It is necessary to share some scientific and technological achievements and information internationally, and form a scientific consensus on the basis of joint research, so as to make global decisions. Provide evidence.