Elon Musk's new "Optimus" robot .. Will it change the shape of the world soon?

"New computers, powerful, connected to everything, and we trusted them to run everything. They said they had intelligence, a new kind of intelligence. Then they saw all humans as a threat to them, not just the enemies on the other side, and they decided our destiny in milliseconds: annihilation."

(From the 1984 movie The Terminator)

Elon Musk always mentions that he fears that artificial intelligence will one day outperform humans and endanger us all, stressing in an interview with “CNBC” in 2014 that artificial intelligence is the greatest threat to human civilization, even predicting frightening results (1) like the famous movie series "The Terminator", but, at the same time, Musk asserts that if his company "Tesla" builds a robot of its own, it can guarantee that this robot will be safe and will not turn on humans.

In 2017, Musk again referred to the same movie, citing his other company's technologies, "Neuralink", which aims to develop devices inside the human brain to be able to interact with machines, as a defense against artificial intelligence threats such as Skynet. )", which is the name of the artificial intelligence that destroyed humans in the movie "The Terminator".

That is the aspiration: to avoid AI becoming other.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 23, 2017

But there are some questions we need to ask first in this regard: Can such super robots really be made?

And if this happens, what can you do or provide on the ground?

Then can these robots really dominate the world in the future?

Or to put the question another way: Are these the real problems that we should really fear in terms of robotics and artificial intelligence, or are they fears out of science fiction films when there is something else going on behind Elon Musk and other major companies in this field?

Android Optimus

On Friday, September 30, during Tesla's AI event in Palo Alto, California, Elon Musk unveiled the new Optimus robot, a prototype of the humanoid robot his company is developing.

The robot appeared on the stage moving and walking without human assistance, waving its hands and using its arms in a dancing motion.

Tesla Bot coming out and dancing 🤣 @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/TKT1lSGyqa

— Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) October 1, 2022

The development of the robot began last February, and in its final version it is supposed to have physical capabilities such as the ability to move all fingers independently, in addition to the thumb having a degree of freedom so that it can use various tools.

The company showed a video in which the robot performs simple tasks, such as watering plants, carrying boxes and lifting metal rods at a production station at the company's factory in California.

Musk did not specify a clear timeline for the production of the robot, but when answering a question about when it will be available to the general public, he mentioned that it may come within 3 to 5 years (2).

Tesla also announced that the computer that controls the robot is the same version used in self-driving Tesla cars, which offers a set of features that enable the car to maneuver without the need for driver intervention, and is currently under beta testing in about 160,000 cars on public roads, but nevertheless. The company warns that drivers should pay attention at all times while driving.

The company also stated that it designed the robot with the same mass production goals in mind when designing its electric cars, meaning that it planned to build and produce the robot as quickly as possible and on a large scale, and expects to produce millions of copies of it by taking advantage of the hardware, software, manufacturing capabilities and supply chains that it develops The company for its cars, and will sell it in the market for a sum of up to 20 thousand dollars, to remind Elon Musk: "It really is a radical transformation of civilization as we know it."

According to what a Tesla official announced later, thousands of copies of the "Optimus" robot will be launched first in the company's factories (3), with a future vision towards the use of these robots in homes.

In a previous interview with TED, Elon Musk mentioned that these household uses may include activities such as mowing the lawn in the garden, buying groceries, perhaps caring for the elderly, all the way to becoming a companion or friend to its human owner, which Musk emphasized, saying: “Our goal is to produce a useful humanoid robot as quickly as possible, because in the end it may help millions of people, but the first robots will work in factories” (4).

Elon Musk advertisement

It seems that the focus on creating a robot with limbs like a human being whose main goal is to impress the followers, rather than finding a useful solution to the real industry problems, which is what Elon Musk is really keen on.

(Social Media)

As for the capabilities that qualify it to work in factories, the Optimus robot comes with four limbs in order to gain the ability to perform more general tasks, in contrast to the robotic arm that performs a specific task in the car manufacturing process, so these robots that are able to move may be in this complex form. More convenient to perform more complex operations, such as feeding flexible wires through the dashboard and the car body (5).

But there is no doubt that the most important reason for designing a robot in the same shape as a human body is to have the ability to move through a world designed by humans for themselves, but the main obstacle to such a supposed ambition is that we still lack a full understanding of how our human bodies can carry out what they do. Indeed, because this process itself is not that simple so that we can transfer it to a robot that resembles us in shape, and simulating the biological system of humans is a task that self-driving cars do not test (6), and until we reach such knowledge, we will see slow progress in human-like robots , but it wouldn't be a revolutionary development.

It seems then that the focus on the manufacture of a robot with limbs like a human being whose main goal is to impress the followers, rather than finding a useful solution to the real industry problems, which is what Elon Musk is really keen on, with his keen interest in products that capture the public’s imagination, such as space travel, and the occupation of Mars , fully self-driving cars, and now humanoid robots.

Commenting on this point, says Chris Atkeson, a professor at the Robotics Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, that the main debate currently among professionals in the field is whether general-purpose robots are better than those that perform a specific task, but he emphasizes in every Once the latter wins the debate (7).

Atkeson states that human-like robots are much more expensive to design and manufacture than other models dedicated to a single task, and that one of the important questions about the Tesla robot is the primary goal of it. The extra feet give it the right balance (8).

Musk had announced at the same event last year, in August 2021, for the first time, that Tesla would make a humanoid robot, and then a person dressed in a white robot suit appeared dancing on the stage, but it seems that the goal of this project, at least in part, It is the search for talents in the field of robotics.

Prior to the launch of this year's event, Musk stated, via his Twitter account, that its goal was to help the company select and appoint robotics and artificial intelligence engineers, who would also be involved in developing Tesla's self-driving technologies.

Note, this event is meant for recruiting AI & robotics engineers, so will be highly technical https://t.co/BcxAEv6qJd

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 29, 2022

Atkeson believes, then, that the attempts of Elon Musk and his company to enter the world of robotics will produce a kind of publicity for the industry, because there are many companies in the field currently, and most of them are not as famous as Tesla and its CEO, of course.

hard paradox

But beyond the hype, it's clear that the rapid development of artificial intelligence, especially with regard to robotics, presents a difficult irony.

Simply put, computers now can actually do a lot, things that were previously impossible, and the examples are many, the latest being the creation of art paintings by just typing some words in applications such as "Dalle2) and "Midjourney".

This rapid development created huge expectations for a coming revolution in the world of robotics, but herein lies the problem, moving from the virtual world to the real world carries very huge challenges, for example, artificial intelligence can manipulate things inside a digital simulation on a computer, but once it tries to teach the robot Performing this act in the real world, and with the slightest change in the settings of the place, the whole process can easily fail.

The robot "Asimo" (Reuters)

According to Nancy Cook, a professor of human systems engineering at Arizona State University, the real success of the robot lies in its ability to do work that has not been written for it before, in other words, if the robot is able to walk and move normally, or even dance, this is what other companies offer Indeed, and no one will be surprised or impressed, because all these movements can be written in the code of the robot, and it can then be implemented easily (9).

Let's take, for example, the Japanese car company Honda, which developed the famous robot "Asimo", which has two feet, over two decades, but it was not commercially produced, and last March the company announced that the robot had been discontinued. After all these attempts at development, which increased the questioning of the feasibility of these humanoid robots (10).

Another example of this comes from Google, in 2013, the prestigious company acquired Boston Dynamics, the company that develops the famous robot "Atlas", to try to start in the field of robotics, that initiative was consumed by Google sources, money and engineers in projects that never saw the light of day.

Then, in 2017, Google sold the company to the Japanese group “Softbank” for about 165 million dollars, which in turn sold it to “Hyundai” after only 3 years (11).

The company "Boston Dynamics" has shown a clip of the robot "Atlas", which performs acrobatic movements and jumps here and there in an impressive manner, but despite all these dazzling movements, the real physical capabilities of these robots remain very limited.

All of these widespread video footage of robots takes place in a carefully controlled environment, often under human remote control, as well as being prototypes for testing and is not really reliable.

Such projects are nipped in the bud, because companies realize once they have started that robotics is a really complex field.

The confusion about what you can realistically expect from robots, now and in the near future, is understandable of course, perhaps even for the richest man in the world, but despite all this, why is Elon Musk, and other companies, so insistent on entering the world of humanoid robots?

Yes, excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake.

To be precise, my mistake.

Humans are underrated.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 13, 2018

new world

First of all, the market for humanoid robots is certainly still in its infancy, and the possibilities are still wide open despite those hiccups.

The value of this global market amounted to about $1.48 billion in 2021, and its value is expected to reach about $17.32 billion by 2028, according to a report from the technology consulting company “SkyQuest.” For example, Hyundai indicated that it will invest Initially more than $400 million, via Boston Dynamics, in primary research for artificial intelligence and robotics (12).

In addition, Tesla's "Optimus" robot has a clear initial goal, as it is part of its long-term efforts to usher in a future new era of automation in the industry, the goal of which is to engage computer algorithms in making decisions that resemble human decisions, and learn without the need for human intervention. Or, at least, Elon Musk hopes.

Similarly, the American billionaire hopes that the robotics business in his company will reap more profits from selling cars in the future. Musk also hopes that the “Optimus” robot can reduce human jobs in the industry, which constitutes the equivalent of 10% of American employment, for example, or The equivalent of $500 billion in annual wages (13).

This volume of employment doubles when looking at the industry globally, of course.

The American billionaire hopes that his company's robotics business will make more profits from selling cars in the future, and Musk also hopes that the "Optimus" robot can reduce human jobs in the industry.

(Shutterstock)

From the point of view of companies, such as Tesla and others, the robot will work long hours without breaks or demand paid time off, will provide higher efficiency and productivity than the human worker, and will not complain about harsh working conditions, low wages, unsafe work environment, company culture, bullying and other things. humanitarian matters.

If we look at the bigger picture, we will come to the conclusion that these robots are just tools, not some form of intelligence that can compete with us, but the real dilemma is that these tools may completely reshape what the labor market itself means, and how wealth is created and distributed;

Which will eventually lead to changing economic conditions, and perhaps even changing the balance of global power in the future!

So, instead of paying attention to fears out of science fiction films, such as artificial intelligence taking over the world and annihilating us, we should turn our attention to these real and imminent challenges, because often, in the coming years, these robots may take many jobs, such as factory work, construction and other functions performed by humans.

This transformation will lead to the accumulation of huge profits for companies that develop robots and artificial intelligence, such as Tesla, Hyundai, and others, not to mention the companies that will buy those robots.

Imagine, for example, how much money a company like Apple would make if they could build their phones in robotic factories, and then you can imagine that for every big company that has factories where they need automation and robots.

Imagine the factory being filled with robots that look like humans instead of humans themselves, a futuristic vision that might be terrifying to us, and although it is still far from happening in the near future, its ghosts loom over us from afar.

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