• North Korea launched two new ballistic missiles on Thursday and flew 12 fighter jets in formation.

  • Pyongyang says the weapons tests are "just retaliation" against Washington and Seoul and their military exercises in the region.

  • The totalitarian regime is taking advantage of a disturbed and divided international context, in particular by the war in Ukraine and the question of Taiwan.

North Korea has been playing the big game in terms of ballistic tests in recent months: a dozen missiles, grouped into six launches, were fired in less than two weeks.

This Thursday, two new launches and 12 fighter jets flew over the Korean peninsula as the UN Security Council met to discuss a previous launch on Tuesday.

“In terms of the number of trials, this is an unprecedented year,” reacts Antoine Bondaz, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research.

Particularly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, Pyongyang had slowed the pace of its armed provocations for two years.

But the recovery is there.

“In 2019, North Korea carried out 27 ballistic tests, this year it is already at more than thirty”, explains Antoine Bondaz.

However, it is not unusual for Pyongyang to multiply training shots.

Kim Jong-un has also done more ballistic tests in one year than his father in fifteen years, underlines the specialist.

"It's a form of resumption of routine activities of North Korea", analyzes for her part Raphaëlle Pierre, doctoral student in political science at Inalco.

According to the researcher, who wrote a thesis on the country's nuclear and ballistic program, "it's a way for Pyongyang to have a voice on the international scene".

Pyongyang's 'window of opportunity'

However, at the moment, North Korea has a “window of opportunity”, according to Antoine Bondaz.

"Today there are three dynamics to the benefit of North Korea: the trivialization of the tests which have multiplied over the years, a distraction - the international community is focused on Ukraine - and an international disunity", decrypts the specialist.

Captured by the Russian invasion, the international community is indeed less focused on the Korean peninsula.

And tears itself apart, for the benefit of the dictatorial state.

Last May, the Asian country escaped new UN sanctions supposed to punish its ballistic tests thanks to the veto of China and Russia.

“The more dissension there is between China and the United States, the more room for maneuver a state like North Korea enjoys;

and she is very skilful in playing on these dissensions and increasing them,” notes Guibourg Delamotte, lecturer at Inalco and researcher at the French Institute for Research on East Asia.

According to her, “North Korea is an adjustment variable: when things are going well between China and the United States, Beijing votes on the resolutions”.

Otherwise, it is an opportunity to oppose Washington.

Prove your "credibility"

The international situation is therefore favorable for Pyongyang, which is taking the opportunity to "improve its ballistic arsenal", declares Raphaëlle Pierre.

In September, North Korea endorsed the "irreversible" nature of its status as a nuclear power.

Concretely, this new law allows the authoritarian regime to launch a preventive nuclear strike if it feels threatened.

"North Korea wants to be considered as a state with nuclear weapons and these tests are a way of proving its credibility", underlines the doctoral student, who specifies however that the regime does not intend to use the atomic bomb.

Pyongyang has clearly displayed its categorical refusal to denuclearize.

“The constitution was amended in 2012 to include nuclear weapons, it is the only country in the world that has done that,” recalls Antoine Bondaz.

North Korea's latest ballistic tests were for short- to medium-range missiles.

In the West, "we tend to focus on long-range missiles or nuclear tests, but short-range and medium-range missiles remain extremely important because they help strengthen North Korean ballistic capabilities, they are precise and can penetrate the South Korean defences,” explains Antoine Bondaz.

Missiles against “American imperialism”

Because the ballistic tests of Pyongyang contribute to modify the balance of power in the peninsula.

The tensions are also quite palpable: the vice-president of the United States went to Seoul last week to strengthen the security alliance with South Korea.

A few hours later, Kim Jong-un ordered two short-range ballistic missile launches.

Seoul, Tokyo and Washington have stepped up joint military maneuvers in recent weeks, including anti-submarine warfare drills and large-scale naval maneuvers.

The North Korean regime is very attentive to regional geopolitical issues.

“Tension in Taiwan [between Washington and Beijing] reinforces North Korea's belief that 'US imperialism' is a real threat.

For Pyongyang, the countries in the south of the peninsula are “colonized” by the United States”, recalls Raphaëlle Pierre.

The international diplomacy of Joe Biden, who returned to a line similar to that of Barack Obama and did not try to get closer to Kim Jong-un unlike his predecessor, also contributes to the renewed aggressiveness of Pyongyang.

One thing is certain for Antoine Bondaz: “the tests will continue”.

It remains to be seen whether the next will be a nuclear test - which would be North Korea's seventh - an intercontinental ballistic missile test (like the Hwasong-17) or short- and medium-range tests.

World

North Korea fires two missiles, flies 12 fighter jets in formation

World

North Korea fires ballistic missile at Sea of ​​Japan

  • World

  • North Korea

  • Pyongyang

  • Kim Jong Un

  • Nuclear

  • UNITED STATES

  • South Korea