The war in Ukraine "will have severe economic consequences for Europe, having struck when the recovery from the pandemic was still incomplete".

This was stated by the International Monetary Fund, underlining that with the war "new risks have emerged. The most worrying one is a sudden stop in the flow of energy from Russia, which would cause significant losses for many economies".

Recession risk for Germany, France, Italy and Great Britain

For "some of the largest European economies such as France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy", "very weak or negative quarterly growth is expected in mid-2022" continues the IMF, underlining that this "setback in the recovery is hidden in the annual growth forecasts "which are affected by the rebound in 2021. The IMF has forecast a GDP for Italy at + 2.3% this year, + 1.7% next and + 1.3% in 2024. The manager of the EU Department of the IMF, Alfred Kammer, specifies: economies such as "France, Germany, Italy and Great Britain are expected to barely grow or even contract for two consecutive quarters this year".

A stop to Russian gas removes 3 points from EU GDP and 6 points from Germany's GDP

Europe might be able to manage a gas outage from Russia if it didn't last more than six months, but a longer, one-year stop would hit countries at peak demand next winter and force rationing in the face of rising prices. even more exacerbated.

According to the analysis of the IMF, an overall stop to Russian gas would remove 3 percentage points of growth from the EU as a whole next year, but with more serious effects on countries more exposed as 6 points of GDP less for Germany.

The IMF re-proposes the growth forecasts just updated in the World economic Outlook.

For Italy they led to a cut of 1.5 points on growth this year, to 2.3%, and 0.5 points on the next, to 1.7%.

on 2024, the IMF estimates Italian growth at 1.3%. "

The Russian invasion of Ukraine created a humanitarian catastrophe, "says the Washington institution." New risks have emerged from the war.

A prolonged war would increase the number of refugees, worsen bottlenecks in supply chains, and add pressure to inflation by exacerbating production losses.

The most worrying risks would be those of a stop to energy supplies from Russia, which would cause significant production losses - we read - in particular in many central and eastern European economies ".

it would worsen bottlenecks in supply chains and add pressure to inflation by exacerbating production losses.

The most worrying risks would be those of a stop to energy supplies from Russia, which would cause significant production losses - we read - in particular in many central and eastern European economies ".

it would worsen bottlenecks in supply chains and add pressure to inflation by exacerbating production losses.

The most worrying risks would be those of a stop to energy supplies from Russia, which would cause significant production losses - we read - in particular in many central and eastern European economies ".

Visco: difficult to predict new post-war balances

The war in Ukraine represents "a profound and dramatic change" that risks interrupting the process of economic convergence between countries that had emerged with globalization after the end of the Cold War, and could lead to "various balances that are difficult to predict today", he said. the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, who at the conclusion of his statement at the meeting of the Development Committee of the World Bank and the IMF focused on the 'peace dividend' following the end of the cold war.

Up until before the pandemic, globalization and the technological process had "facilitated a strong reduction in poverty" albeit with significant losses in job security and welfare to correct, Visco said.

A process that, after Covid, also the war puts in crisis.