WTO economists currently expect world merchandise trade volume to grow by 3.5% in 2022 – slightly higher than the 3.0% increase forecast in April, but they forecast a 1.0% increase. % for 2023 – figure down sharply from the previous estimate of 3.4% published in April.
Regarding world GDP, according to the new WTO forecasts at market exchange rates, it should increase by 2.8% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023 (i.e. 1.0 percentage point less compared to previous forecasts for the latter figure).
In comparison, the OECD, which maintained its forecast at 3% for 2022, recently announced that it expects growth of 2.2% next year.
The IMF, on the other hand, forecasts growth of 3.2% this year, and 2.9% in 2023.
If the institution's current forecasts are confirmed, trade growth will therefore slow down sharply in 2023, but it will nevertheless remain positive.
The WTO notes, however, that a great deal of uncertainty surrounds the forecast due to the change in monetary policy in advanced economies and the unpredictable nature of the war launched by Russia in Ukraine.
For 2023, if downside risks materialize, trade growth could fall to -2.8%, but in the event of positive surprises, it could reach up to 4.6%.
The WTO explains that trade and production "will be burdened by several interrelated shocks" next year, including the war in Ukraine, the level of energy prices, inflation and the tightening of monetary policy.
Import demand is expected to weaken as growth slows due to various factors in major economies.
In Europe, the rise in energy prices resulting from the war in Ukraine will lead to a reduction in household spending and increased costs in the manufacturing sector, details the WTO.
In the United States, the tightening of monetary policy will have repercussions on interest-sensitive spending in the areas of housing, automobiles and fixed capital investment, for example.
China continues to face new Covid-19 outbreaks and production disruptions associated with weak external demand, the WTO continues.
© 2022 AFP