Putin and nuclear... atomic weapons expert warns of 4 scenarios, all terrifying

If he loses the war in Ukraine, then Russian President Vladimir Putin may resort to the nuclear option, how will that be?

And what can the West do in that case?

This is what the French magazine L'Obs discussed in an interview with the American expert specializing in nuclear proliferation, who identified 4 scenarios for her, all frightening, as the magazine put it.

Lopes says that the expert, Joseph Cirincione, has been studying the risks associated with nuclear proliferation for 35 years, and has reported on this to the US House of Representatives and to various research institutions such as the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Plowshares Fund, etc., and is the author of 7 books on this subject. He believes that the possibility of asylum Putin's use of nuclear weapons, despite the setbacks he is experiencing today in Ukraine, is very small, but it is real, in his opinion.

The expert pointed out that the use of nuclear weapons had not been presented as an option since the Cuban crisis in 1962, noting that some unintended things had almost - indeed - since that crisis led to a nuclear clash, but the cause was always either a miscalculation, a mistake, or a radar failure.

However, the situation is now different - according to Cirincione - as there is increasing talk about the possibility of deliberate and conscious use of nuclear weapons.

In response to a question whether Putin alone could press the nuclear button, the expert said he did not know;

The matter in Russia requires the agreement of the president, his defense minister and the commander of the armed forces, but whether Putin will follow this procedure or act alone, and this cannot be determined, according to Cirincione.

In the event that Putin resorts to nuclear weapons, Cirincione envisions 4 scenarios, all of which could lead to disaster for the planet:

Scenario One: A Simple Show of Strength

In this case, Russia will launch a missile into the Black Sea, or more dramatically, into an uninhabited area in Ukraine, and this will not cause deaths, and there will be little harm, but the event will shock the whole planet and will hold the world's breath, as this will be the first time Where such a weapon has been used in war since Hiroshima;

And Moscow's message from that strike would be "Watch out, stop, back off."

But the expert does not see this scenario as the most likely;

He does not see that this will be enough to hit the morale sufficiently in Western capitals and get them to stop supporting Ukraine.

Scenario Two: Use of a low-energy nuclear weapon

Such a strike could be directed at a position of Ukrainian forces, an air base, a military port...etc.

And the Iskander cruise missile can carry out such a mission, and such a strike and the resulting massive explosion would represent - according to the expert - a dangerous development.

Its aim is to take the initiative and control the escalation, as this strike would not leave the opponent with a means of retaliation.

The expert expected that the American and Western response to any of the previous two scenarios would be to completely isolate Russia from the world politically, economically and diplomatically to send a message to Putin that: "You have broken nuclear taboos and threatened the existence of humanity... and you must stop immediately."

Russia's Iskander missile could be used in a nuclear strike (French)

Third scenario: a 50 kiloton bomb

By dropping a 50 kiloton bomb on Ukraine;

This means striking Ukraine with a bomb 3 or 4 times the bomb that hit Hiroshima, and this will inevitably lead to the deaths of tens, and perhaps hundreds of thousands of people, and will result in devastation that we have not seen since the Second World War, and yet the impact of this will remain local and will not be felt by people in Paris or Brussels, for example.

But in this case, the West will have no choice but to enter directly into the war.

Undoubtedly, this development would represent a step that Putin did not reckon with. His goal in such a blow is to make the West warn against confronting him, and to make sure that he is crazy and that the best option is to get out of this conflict.

The expert justifies the entry of the West - or at least the United States - into the war by saying that if it believes in nuclear deterrence, then its words and actions must be in harmony, otherwise fleeing the war will be considered surrender and Washington will lose its credibility in future confrontations, and this is the deterrence trap.

It is certain - according to Cirincione - that the unit that launched the nuclear strike will be crushed by America, and the complex question will be how far will we go in this matter?

It is true that we will strike in Russia, but then how do we control the escalation?

How do we avoid a counter strike?

And how then achieve the goal of ending the war?

Fourth scenario: striking a European country other than Ukraine

In this case, Russia could use a tactical nuclear weapon.

For example, a 50-kiloton bomb to hit a NATO target, possibly in central Europe, according to the expert.

Putin's goal here will be to create the largest possible shock, and that will be consistent with his logic, as he believes that striking and destroying Ukraine was not enough to make the West retreat and distance itself from the conflict in Ukraine.

The expert gave an example of this, when Putin attacked a Polish air base from which transport planes depart for Ukraine.

In such a decision, Putin will be consistent with his rhetoric in which he has been warning that this war is an aggression by NATO against Russia, and there is no doubt - according to the expert - that such a bomb will also kill thousands, if not tens of thousands, and in such Scenario The hypothesis of an American nuclear response will be justified, according to the expert.

Cirincione pointed out that all these scenarios had been studied, and that many of the "war games" were aimed at preparing for this type of crisis, even when former US President Barack Obama was in the White House, there was a simulation of a Russian attack on a NATO base, he shared It was attended by high-ranking officials, over a period of several days, he said.

The expert concluded by saying that if Putin attacks, we will attack, but we must not forget to ask ourselves: What will he do next?

And how far will it go?

The hypothesis that he might set the whole house on fire cannot be ruled out here, he has the power, but although there is such a possibility, we don't want to think about it, according to Cirincione.