Beirut -

Lebanon and the Israeli occupation state have entered the last square of the indirect technical negotiation process mediated by the United States to demarcate the maritime borders, and the data indicate that what Washington included in its final offer delivered last Saturday was the subject of discussion and discussion with the two sides about two months ago.

Analysts find that Washington's urgency to sign the demarcation with its new coordinates stems from the urgent international need for new sources of gas after the Ukrainian-Russian war, and the eastern Mediterranean may be one of the most important platforms for its extraction.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun receives the American mediator's proposals regarding the demarcation of the (European) maritime borders

US supply developments

Amid positive atmospheres in Beirut, Lebanon intends to hand over to the American mediator, Amos Hochstein, today, Tuesday, a response that includes comments on the American written offer.

And yesterday, Monday, President Michel Aoun chaired a technical meeting to discuss the offer, and a presidential meeting with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and the caretaker government, Najib Mikati.

Officially, the contents of the 10-page American offer were not disclosed, but what was leaked of it reflected optimism that an indirect agreement would be reached.

Tel Aviv seemed more confusing at the internal level, as opponents of Yair Lapid's government found that the American offer reflected Israeli submission to Hezbollah's threats, after it established the Karish equation for Israel versus the Qana field for Lebanon.

The writer and political analyst, Daoud Ramal, quotes official Lebanese sources for Al Jazeera Net, the most prominent provisions of the American proposal, and summarizes them in 6 points:

  • Recognition of Lebanon's maritime borders on the basis of the 23rd line and the southern Qana field.

  • Not to expand the maritime demarcation to Berri, as Israel sought.

    Consequently, Lebanon's ownership of point B-1, located in Ras Naqoura Bay, was consecrated, and considered it part of its maritime borders.

  • Security arrangements starting from a naval point about 5 kilometers from the land, which are being taken over from the Lebanese side by the "UNIFIL" forces.

  • Israel would obtain a percentage of the profits from the French company “Total” from the Qana field if a joint commercial discovery was made in it, and not through Lebanon paying what was called “compensations” to Israel, and according to French-American arrangements with the company with which Lebanon signed to explore Qana.

  • Total's commitment to start exploratory drilling in Block 9 for Lebanon.

  • Postponing the extraction and transportation from the Karish field for about 15 days, at the request of the "Energean" company, until the completion of the demarcation to ensure that it operates in a safe area.

Accordingly, Lebanon sees Washington's offer as a great achievement in its favour, and extracts its demand for an exclusive economic zone with the Qana field and a security buffer zone.


demarcation no agreement

The Lebanese side insists that it does not sign a bilateral agreement with Israel, as it is in a state of hostility with it, and does not recognize the existence of the "state of the Israeli entity."

The Lebanese academic and expert in international law, Rizk Zughaib, explains to Al Jazeera Net the upcoming demarcation path, saying that the countries - according to the Treaty on the Law of the Sea - determine their maritime space according to an individual action issued by them, and Lebanon issues a decree that determines the coordinates of the maritime field accurately and sends them to the United Nations.

Zughaib recalls that the origin of the dispute since 2011, as defined by Israel after signing an agreement with Cyprus, contradicts what Lebanon defined in the maritime domain.

The latter was unable to resort to international courts or to negotiate directly with a state whose existence he does not recognize, so the role of the American mediator came.

If Lebanon accepts Washington's offer, it will send a message to its mediator, and after confirming the approvals, it will send to the United Nations, through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, new coordinates, as well as Israel will do as a unilateral action, and the matching between them appears.

At this point, the new demarcation will become effective, without it implying normalization and Lebanese recognition of Israel, according to Zughaib.

A British ship in the Karish field in preparation for the start of drilling and exploration for gas in the coasts of the eastern Mediterranean (Reuters)

The roots of the conflict

The features of the Lebanese-Israeli conflict over oil and gas began in 2002;

When the government of Lebanon commissioned a British center to prepare a study on how to demarcate the territorial waters, it ran into the lack of accurate marine maps of the area separating southern Lebanon and "northern occupied Palestine".

In 2009, the government of Fouad Siniora defined the border by line 23, so in 2011 the government of Najib Mikati established the point as a right of Lebanon to the United Nations, and it was estimated at 860 square kilometers through Decree No. 6433.

But the dispute soon erupted and continued until indirect negotiations between the two sides began in Ras Naqoura in October 2020, under the auspices of the United Nations and American mediation, and lasted 5 rounds until May 2021.

It was suspended for many reasons;

The most important of them is the presentation by the Lebanese side of new maps to prove its right to Line 29, which includes the Karish field as a disputed area.

Then Lebanon retreated from it, and many saw in it a major concession made to Israel.

Here, the expert and consultant in oil affairs, Rabie Yaghi, describes the American offer to correct an anomaly and a settlement that will benefit both sides economically, noting that Israel has historically tried to piracy the area known as the 23rd line, while "the offer returns it to the borders drawn since the armistice agreement in 1949."

As for the 29th line, Lebanon did not give it up - according to his opinion - because it was a negotiating line to secure the 23rd line.


Does Qana field actually store oil and gas wealth?

Yaghi tells Al Jazeera Net that Qana is a hypothetical field, because Lebanon does not have wells discovered, and it is within an area that has witnessed a three-dimensional geological survey, which has proven to be promising and rich.

What settles the discussion - according to him - Lebanon has started drilling and exploration to monitor the amount of gas, even if it is capable of investment development, with a depth of about 5 km, and a path that takes about 8 years.

Yaghi states that Israel discovered the Karish field in 2013, but it will export from it in 2022.

Regarding quantities, Yaghi points out that the eastern Mediterranean basin - according to American geologists in 2009 - contains about 122 trillion cubic feet of extractable gas, and Israel has so far made discoveries in the range of 40 trillion and Cyprus within 10 trillion, and the quantity was not known on the one hand. Syria.

And "because Lebanon is geographically located in the middle of the Eastern Basin, it may store about 30 or 40 trillion cubic feet, which is enough to meet its future need for energy production and export of surplus quantities," according to Yaghi.

As a Lebanese and with rights in the Lebanese sea, land and air, I demand that you read the content of the agreement allegedly signed under the auspices of the United Nations between my country #Lebanon and #Israel..I do not trust the officials. #nabihbrie

— Sawsan Mhanna|

Sawsana Mehanna (@SawsanaMehanna) October 2, 2022

political dimensions

Analyst Daoud Ramal says that the initial Lebanese approval of the American offer has been achieved, and that the notes were written down, some of them essential and others secondary, without affecting the structure of the offer.

There is information that among the observations are the recognition of Lebanon's full sovereignty over the Qana field, and obtaining international guarantees that Israel will not retreat from the agreement.

If the agreement is signed, it means that Lebanon - according to Ramal - has guaranteed security stability along the southern land and sea borders from 20 to 30 years, and the security condition is essential for companies' investment.

Externally, Rammal believes that Washington is in a hurry to complete the demarcation, after the European Union "implicated" the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and found itself obligated to compensate - albeit relatively - for the loss of Russian gas, and "does not want to open a new military front in the Middle East, specifically between Israel." and Hezbollah.

Following the expected demarcation, a new equation will be established between Lebanon and Israel, based on "extraction versus extraction," according to Ramal.

Next, "there is a stick above the heads of companies, not to procrastinate in the presence of competitors ready to take the place of any company that has been reluctant to invest in the Lebanese wealth."