The simulation of the rule of law that Putin has performed in the Russian parliament does not change the fact that in the end the military balance of power will decide whether he can permanently incorporate the four areas he claims into the Russian state.

The fact that the Ukrainian army managed to gain some important ground in the east and south over the weekend shows that it used the summer skilfully for training purposes.

Russia is yet to go through this process.

It will probably take some time before Putin's emergency mobilization at the front takes effect.

And one of its main problems will remain, potentially even increasing as a result of the drafts: the low morale of the Russian troops.

No short-range missiles for Kyiv

Nevertheless, the American Secretary of Defense is right when he considers the further course of the war to be difficult to predict.

Putin is visibly weakened, but not so weakened that he (or anyone else in his place) would have to back down.

In view of this situation, Washington seems unwilling to change its own strategy.

Lloyd Austin showed no willingness over the weekend to supply the Ukrainians with the short-range ballistic missiles they currently want.

For the time being, the American government is sticking to its approach of steadily but cautiously increasing the pressure on Putin in order to prevent the war from spreading to NATO.

Biden is thus continuing to set a course for the Europeans that some hotheads in Berlin may not like.

He's reasonable though, there's a lot at stake.

This also applies to the question of Ukraine joining NATO.

As long as the war is not over, it is out of the question, because then the Alliance would have to fight alongside their new ally.

The nine eastern member states, who accompanied Zelenskyj's unrealistic proposal with a solidarity address, also know this.

Isn't it enough that Putin is trying to bring discord into the alliance?