In the opinion polls ahead of the first round of the Brazilian presidential election, ex-president Lula from the PT workers' party balanced around 50 percent and many wondered if the election would already be decided here.

But once the votes began to be counted, it was Bolsonaro who was in the lead for a long time.

When Lula finally passed, shouts of joy and fireworks were heard from his supporters in downtown São Paulo.

But it soon became clear that the election was more even than most thought.

The city fell silent.

It was a victory party that came off.

The polls underestimated Bolsonaro

In the end, Lula received roughly 48 percent of the vote, five percent more than Bolsonaro.

And Lula's numbers were actually in line with what the opinion polls predicted.

But Bolsonaro received about ten percent more votes than the polls showed.

There can be several reasons for this.

Many conservative Bolsonaro supporters distrust the media and may therefore be less inclined to participate in surveys.

In addition, Brazil has not carried out a census since 2010, which creates uncertainty about the size of different parts of the population – not least the non-religious, which is a fast-growing and very conservative group.

The election map after the first round shows a divided Brazil.

Lula has gone strong in the Amazon and also in northeast Brazil which has a large Afro-Brazilian population where the left is traditionally strong.

Bolsonaro has mainly won in the conservative hinterland where the agricultural sector is central to the economy and many support the president's plans for continued expansion into nature reserves and indigenous areas.

Today's Brazil is also a country with large differences in political preferences depending on gender, skin color and social class.

Lula favorite in the second round

There were two reserved candidates who met the media on election night.

Lula said he has won two presidential elections before, but never in the first round, and that a second round is an opportunity for the campaign to mature, sharpen proposals and build new alliances.

He also promised to fight poverty in the country.

Bolsonaro said he defeated the lies of opinion polls and warned of a shift in power where new indigenous reserves would sink the agricultural industry and left-wing politics threaten religious freedom, the right to bear arms and the traditional family.

Lula enters the second round of elections as the clear favourite.

He has a lead of over six million votes over Bolsonaro and has a much easier path to 50 percent.

Now a tough fight awaits for the middle candidates' voters, who received around eight percent in the first round.

Several of the candidates have already given signals that they will support Lula.

But politics is not always mathematics.

Even if the candidates point in one direction, their voters don't necessarily go there.

And despite the fact that voting is mandatory in Brazil, almost 32 million Brazilians were absent.

Trying to mobilize the couch potato therefore also becomes important - not least for Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro has four weeks

The second round of elections will be a monumental showdown between two colorful politicians who have dominated Brazilian politics for a long time.

Opposing each other are two fundamentally different political projects that engage far beyond Brazil's borders.

Bolsonaro now has four weeks to gather enough votes to catch up and overtake Lula.

Four weeks may sound a little.

But in Brazilian politics, that's an eternity.

So it's not time to count Jair Bolsonaro out just yet.

Not this time either.