“The world is one step away from a devastating nuclear war,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued last August when he was speaking at the opening of a conference of signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
It did not take long for Guterres to say again that "the idea of a nuclear conflict is moot, and this is totally unacceptable."
And before Guterres sounded the alarm in 2019 when he was the Executive Director of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, when he told Al Jazeera English, "I think today we are facing the situation we were in on the day of the bombing of Nagasaki and Hiroshima."
This report answers 3 questions: What are the justifications for the fear of a nuclear conflict?
What are the human losses that resulted from the use of nuclear weapons?
Then what countries actually possess this deadly weapon?
Justifications for fear
The United Nations defines nuclear weapons as “the most dangerous weapons on earth. One of them can destroy an entire city, kill millions and endanger the natural environment and lives of future generations, through its long-term disastrous effects.”
With all the political tensions that are difficult to control, fears arise that one of the opponents will lose his nerve and make a decision that will cost humanity heavy losses in lives and property, and the other will respond more violently, leaving cities and perhaps entire countries out of existence.
When the Russian army began its military operations in Ukraine last February, many observers and experts warned of a military confrontation between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) that would ultimately lead to the use of nuclear weapons.
Analysts estimated that it was not in the interest of the international community to defeat Russian President Vladimir Putin, because that might push him to use unconventional weapons to assert his country's greatness and its ability to keep its Western enemies away from its borders.
But these estimates fell on deaf ears. The West allocated huge budgets to arm Ukraine and mobilized all its military, economic and political capabilities to defeat the Russian army.
Washington alone has provided more than $10 billion in military aid to the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Also, Ukraine got weapons and aid from Britain, France, Germany, Canada and many other Western countries.
And Germany recently hosted a meeting of dozens of defense ministers of Western countries and their allies, to mobilize military support for the Ukrainian army in the face of Russian forces.
At the time, US Secretary of State Lloyd Austin said the meeting aimed to discuss "how countries can work together to train Ukrainian forces and improve their defense capabilities."
"This contact group needs to take a stand to support the brave defenders of Ukraine in the long term, and that means a steady and resolute flow of potential now," he added.
These efforts paid off. Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks and expelled Russian forces from areas they had seized months ago.
But wounding the pride of the Russian bear carries a grave danger. Nuclear talk is no longer a whisper as it was months ago. Rather, Putin has approved a new nuclear doctrine for his country and said that he will not hesitate to use this deadly weapon to prevent any attack on his country.
The world has to take this threat seriously
, as Russia is the world's first nuclear power with a stockpile of about 4,500 nuclear warheads, according to estimates by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), and US President Joe Biden has formed a team of civilian and military specialists to assess risks and responses. , warning Russia that nuclear war "cannot be won," he said.
According to Matthew Kroenig of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, it is possible that Putin would use tactical nuclear weapons to ensure his victory in the war.
The response to this strike from the West may lead to a nuclear war that will not last or end.
Also, failure to respond carries a serious risk, according to Kroenig, as it may encourage other countries, such as China, to "think that nuclear weapons can help them achieve their goals without dangerous repercussions."
In response to the Russian president's statements about the possible use of nuclear weapons, the French press agency quoted US sources as saying that the administration of President Joe Biden takes Putin's threats seriously.
John Kirby, the US National Security Council's strategic communications coordinator, said Washington takes Putin's nuclear threats seriously.
Kirby added, in an interview with the American network "ABC", that his country is watching Russia's strategic positioning, noting that there will be serious consequences when using nuclear weapons.
The US nuclear strike on Hiroshima left 120,000 dead and caused massive destruction (Getty Images)
And before the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Biden condemned the threat of his Russian counterpart to use nuclear weapons, describing it as irresponsible.
In an interview with Al-Jazeera, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said that Putin's recent statements and the referendum on annexing parts of Ukraine do not reflect the steps of a self-confident leader, stressing that he will continue to support Ukraine financially and security.
In other international reactions, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Putin's military mobilization and nuclear threats represented a dangerous and irresponsible escalation.
According to experts who spoke to the British newspaper "The Times", Russian President Vladimir Putin, after the Ukrainian counter-attack, is faced with bleak options.
According to these experts, Putin can either accept a humiliating defeat or resort to the use of nuclear weapons to ensure victory and redress its defeat after setbacks on the battlefield.
"The more the Ukrainian army succeeds, the greater the risk that Putin will order the use of a tactical nuclear weapon," said Franz-Stephan Gade, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The use of a tactical weapon would send a clear message that Russia is ready to use more nuclear weapons.
Gadi notes that "Russia has enough long-range conventional strike capabilities, to destroy cities like Kharkiv and Kiev" if it wants to, "and an attack of this magnitude would force NATO to respond."
human losses
Fears of the use of nuclear weapons are not the result of a vacuum, as this weapon has cost humanity heavy losses in lives and property, and the repercussions of its use are still killing peoples who have been exposed to it despite the passage of decades.
The United States was the first country to possess nuclear weapons. It conducted a nuclear test on July 16, 1945, in the desert of New Mexico.
Less than a month later, the United States was the first and last country to use this weapon in the closing days of World War II. On the morning of August 6, 1945, a B-29 bomber dropped a 4-ton atomic bomb on the Japanese city of Hiroshima.
Immediately, the bomb killed 80,000 people, and later the death toll rose to more than 120,000, and massive damage was caused to the city and its surroundings.
But Japan did not give up, so the United States returned the ball after 3 days and dropped a larger bomb on Nagasaki, killing 70,000 people instantly, and then Tokyo raised the white flag.
In addition to the dead, the nuclear radiation caused many distortions and diseases to the inhabitants of those areas, and Japan has not yet recovered from the damage caused by the two strikes.
Although the world took the initiative to contain the atomic weapon and bury it in the cradle, these efforts were in vain. Four years after the detonation of the nuclear bomb came Russia's turn and began its nuclear tests.
Among the treaties aimed at containing the threat of this weapon: the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the Treaty Banning Nuclear Tests in the Atmosphere, in Outer Space and under Water, and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
The United Nations says, "There are still 22,000 of these weapons in our world today, and that more than 2,000 nuclear tests have been conducted to date, and that disarmament is the best protection against these dangers."
If the United States is the first and last country to use nuclear weapons in war, other countries have caused the loss of many lives through illegal nuclear experiments or by failing to maintain nuclear facilities.
France began its nuclear tests in the Algerian desert in 1960 (Getty Images)
From the desert of Algeria, France entered the club of nuclear states,
where it conducted its first nuclear test and detonated an atomic bomb on February 13, 1960, under the name "blue jerboa".
According to Algerian reports, France conducted 57 explosions and nuclear tests in the Saharan desert of Algeria, and these experiments left civilian and military deaths and caused diseases and disfigurements for the population of the neighboring regions.
In 2009, the French Ministry of Defense spoke about the injury of a number of French soldiers as a result of nuclear tests in the Algerian desert, and announced a program to compensate those affected, saying that few of them were Algerians.
But the Algerian story is completely different from what Paris says. In an interview with the media, former Foreign Minister Sabri Boukadoum said that the victims of the French nuclear explosions in his country exceeded 30,000.
He told APS earlier that these residents had contracted diseases caused by exposure to radioactivity.
According to the Algerian League for the Defense of Human Rights, 24,000 people have been exposed to problems due to these radiations.
The association says that the French army deliberately exposed 150 Algerian prisoners to these radiations to find out the effect of radiation on humans in the sense of "using them as lab rats."
On April 26, 1986, a disaster occurred at the Chernobyl
nuclear power plant in northern Ukraine, then under the Soviet Union.
Regarding the cause of this disaster, the United Nations says, “It seemed that stopping the system for 20 seconds to test the impact of the power outage was just another test for electrical equipment, but an operating error after shutting down the water turbines used to cool the used uranium and generate electricity led to a high temperature of uranium in the fourth reactor. After 7 seconds, the high temperature triggered a chemical explosion wave, which in turn released approximately 520 dangerous radionuclides into the atmosphere."
According to a UN report, the force of the explosion led to the spread of pollution in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia, and 31 people died instantly, and 600,000 people involved in firefighting and cleaning operations were exposed to high doses of radiation.
"According to official reports, approximately 8,400,000 people in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine were exposed to radiation, and 155,000 square kilometers of the territories of the three countries were exposed to radiation."
Countries with nuclear weapons (Al Jazeera)
Countries with nuclear weapons
To date, 9 countries possess nuclear weapons;
Five of them have veto power in the UN Security Council: Russia, the United States, France, Britain and China, and these countries joined the "Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty" signed in 1968.
Most of the world's countries joined the treaty aimed at containing nuclear weapons and limiting nuclear tests, but there are 12 countries that have neither signed nor ratified this treaty, including 4 nuclear states: India, Pakistan, North Korea, as well as Israel.
Some countries in the Middle East have signed this agreement but not ratified it, including Iran and Egypt.
In recent years, North Korea has conducted nuclear missile tests.
In light of the growing conflict in regions of Asia and the Middle East, the question arises whether the world can avoid a nuclear attack.
Years ago, Lasina Zerbo said, “When I hear the word push of a button, I am horrified. My biggest hope when we approach any disaster is that we somehow come back to sanity...No one can win when a nuclear war breaks out. Everyone loses in this devastating conflict. Loss on each side? There is no victor at all."
The conflict between India and Pakistan poses a strong stalemate, as they are both nuclear countries with huge stockpiles of destructive weapons.
In light of the continuing dispute between the two countries over Kashmir, there are fears that one of them will lose his nerve and start a nuclear attack.
The two countries fought 3 wars in 1948, 1965 and 1971, two of them in the context of the conflict over Kashmir, which killed nearly 70,000 people on both sides, and there are fears of a fourth war in which one or both sides use nuclear weapons.
According to a study recently published by the journal Science Advances, the two countries' entry into a nuclear war could kill 125 million people, as each of them possesses about 150 nuclear warheads.
After Washington withdrew from the nuclear agreement signed by the international community with Tehran, fears of having an atomic bomb returned to fuel an arms race in the Middle East.
On a previous occasion, the United Nations expressed its fear of an arms race that would push powerful countries such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia to seek nuclear weapons, as "we cannot tell one side you can do this, and the other side you are not allowed."
In 2019, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that his country should possess nuclear weapons, although it had previously signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
There were also reports of Saudi Arabia's intention to seek to acquire a nuclear weapon if Iran succeeded in making an atomic bomb, given the political rivalry between the two countries.