Estimating the quantities of methane emitted from the two lines to the atmosphere is very difficult

Gas leakage from the Nord Stream pipelines is a global climate disaster

• The pipelines and gas receiving systems of the Nord Stream 2 line in Germany have been shut down.

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• Aerial image showing the recent gas leak in the Norwegian Economic Zone from the North Sea.

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The bubbling water spot on an area of ​​700 meters above the surface of the Baltic Sea, as a result of natural gas leakage from the branches of the natural gas pipelines, "Nord Stream 1" and "Nord Stream 2", indicates an upcoming climate catastrophe.

According to an analysis published by "Bloomberg" news agency, this spot is the most visible of the three points that witnessed a gas leak from the two pipelines linking Russia and Germany.

Scientists are estimating the amounts of methane, one of the most powerful greenhouse gases that has escaped into the atmosphere, and which could be one of the worst cases of harmful gases entering the atmosphere.

Although officials in Germany and the United States confirm that the two lines were deliberately sabotaged, the exact causes of the gas leaks have not been reached, according to the analysis prepared by the American writer John Unger.

Although the Nord Stream 1 line has been out of service since August 31, and the Nord Stream 2 line has not been in operation since its inception, they contain large quantities of compressed gas, mostly methane.

"Given that the impact of one ton of methane on the atmosphere equals the impact of 80 tons of carbon dioxide over more than 20 years, the potential for a leak is significant," said David McCabe, chief scientist at the nonprofit Clean Air Task Force. The methane gas from the (Nord Stream 1 and 2) is very dangerous.”

He added, "There is a great deal of ambiguity about the accident. If the two lines collapsed, the impact on the climate would be severe, and perhaps unprecedented."

At the same time, estimating the amounts of methane released into the atmosphere from the two lines is extremely difficult.

While many large methane leaks have been monitored via satellite from ground pipelines or natural gas and oil extraction sites, estimating the quantities released under water is difficult, due to the reflection of light on the surface.

KEY POINTS

There are a number of basic points that are still ambiguous in this case, including the amount of gases present in the lines, the temperature and pressure in them, and the size of the fracture in the pipes.

Even when the gas escapes, some of it may dissipate into the water, but this depends on the density of the micro-organisms in the area, as well as the depth of the water.

In order to obtain accurate estimates of the quantities of leaked gases, the use of monitoring aircraft is required.

Nevertheless, some scientists on social media were quick to run some quick calculations to see how much methane could be leaking.

The director of energy strategy at the Environmental Defense Fund, Andrew Baxter, estimates the amount of methane gas leaking from the lines at about 115 thousand tons, which is equivalent to 9.6 million tons of carbon dioxide.

This amount is also equivalent to the carbon emissions from about two million gasoline cars over the course of a year, or from two and a half coal-fired power plants.

But the European Union branch of the Greenpeace organization, Greenpeace, estimates the amount of methane gas leaking from the two lines is equivalent to 30 million tons of carbon dioxide.

If these estimates are close to the truth, it would be the largest methane release ever.

The largest methane leak before that in the United States was from a storage depot in Allison Canyon, Los Angeles in 2015, with an estimated 97.1 thousand tons of methane over a seven-month period.

On the other hand, this quantity leaked from the Nord Stream lines within several hours.

GHGSat, a company specialized in monitoring gas emissions by satellite, says that fractures in the Nord Stream lines could lead to the leakage of 500 tons of methane gas every hour, which is ten times more than the leakage rate from the Aliso reservoir. » At the height of the accident.

Other scientists say that although the Nord Stream gas leak is a disaster for the climate, it is still small compared to emissions from natural gas infrastructure worldwide, where about 10% of the natural gas supply leaks into the atmosphere, according to a physics professor. Climate at the University of Leeds, Britain, Beers Forrester.

As for the Executive Director of the Edinburgh Institute for Climate Change Studies, Dave Ray, says, “The most direct effect of gas leakage on the climate is the additional amounts of methane that will be released into the atmosphere, the most powerful greenhouse gas... But this little bubble of methane is above the waters of the water. The sea does not compare to the huge quantities of the so-called (runaway methane) emitted every day in different parts of the world.”

The German Environment Ministry says that the gas leak from the Nord Stream pipelines is a threat to the climate, but it does not represent a major threat to the marine environment in the Baltic Sea, referring to previous gas leaks as a result of oil and gas exploration operations in the North Sea.

• Although the "Nord Stream 1" line has been suspended since August 31, and the "Nord Stream 2" line has not entered the operating phase since its inception, they contain large quantities of compressed gas, most of which are "methane".

• The Director of Energy Strategy at the "Environmental Defense Fund", Andrew Baxter, estimates the amount of "methane" gas leaking from the lines at about 115 thousand tons, which is equivalent to 9.6 million tons of carbon dioxide.

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