It is a turning point in the history of Brazil: 156 million voters vote Sunday, October 2 for a presidential election under high tension which could see the former left-wing president Lula being elected in the first round and the outgoing head of state of extreme right Jair Bolsonaro refuse the verdict of the polls.

This election fraught with uncertainty is decisive for the future of the young democracy in Brazil, the first power in very fractured Latin America.

The clash at the top between sworn enemies Jair Bolsonaro, 67, and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, relegated the other nine candidates to the rank of extras.

Former President Lula (2003-2010) was still the big favorite in the last Datafolha poll on Saturday evening, with 50% of the valid votes against 36% for Bolsonaro.

"The question is whether there will be a second round or not, and it's impossible to predict," Adriano Laureno, an analyst at consultants Prospectiva, told AFP.

A victory for Lula, who has marked Brazilian political life for half a century and is competing for his 6th presidential election, would mark an unexpected comeback four years after his controversial imprisonment on suspicion of corruption.

>> To see on France24.com: the Reporters program, the Lula legacy

The last presidential debate on Thursday illustrated the degree of hatred between the two favorites who tore each other off, accusing each other of being "liar" or "corrupt".

The campaign, carried out in bulletproof vests by the candidates, was also tense.

It carried a dump of personal attacks, delivered few projects for Brazil, and took place in a poisonous climate.

Thus for many Brazilians, the election of Lula in the first round would make it possible to "end it" and escape four additional weeks of campaigning at loggerheads until a second round on October 30.

The fear of unrest after the election

Abstention on Sunday could further penalize Lula.

A runoff could allow Bolsonaro, analysts say, to galvanize his troops and find new momentum.

But hoping for a victory in the first round, Lula's team campaigned for the "useful vote", eyeing the side of the voters of Ciro Gomes (center left), 4th in the polls with 5% of voting intentions.

Jair Bolsonaro said it would be "abnormal" if he did not get at least 60% of the vote on Sunday and rejected "false" polls.

"I think he will challenge the result if he loses," said Adriano Laureno, "but that doesn't mean he will succeed. The international community will quickly recognize the result."

The ex-army captain has launched countless attacks on the reliability of electronic ballot boxes, raising the threat of a coup.

The fear of a Brazilian remake of the assault on the Capitol in Washington in 2021 after the defeat of Donald Trump is on everyone's mind.

The military showed no signs of unrest and the United States said it would "closely monitor" the election.

More than 500,000 members of the security forces must provide security and dozens of foreign observers monitor the voting process, from 8 a.m. (11 a.m. GMT) to 5 p.m. (8 p.m. GMT).

Lula must vote in the morning in Sao Bernardo do Campo, near Sao Paulo, and Bolsonaro in Rio, before following the results in Brasilia (22-23 H GMT).

Bolsonaro, champion of the evangelical vote

Lula, the leader of the Workers' Party (PT), has brought together a vast coalition of ten parties going as far as the center right of his running mate, the former governor of Sao Paulo Geraldo Alckmin, chosen to reassure economic circles.

It has the majority vote of women, young people and the underprivileged classes.

Bolsonaro is running under the label of the small Liberal Party (PL) and enjoys the enthusiastic support of evangelicals, the agribusiness and pro-gun lobby, and the more reserved support of employers.

>> To read also: In Brazil, a ballot where the fate of the Amazon forest is at stake

The majority of Brazilians expect their president to fight against hunger from which 30 million of them suffer, inflation and unemployment which have reinforced precariousness and corruption.

Lula, who had lifted 30 million Brazilians out of poverty, promised meat for everyone and "democracy against fascism".

But, for many, it embodies irremediably corruption.

Bolsonaro defends traditional values ​​-- God, country, family.

But his management deemed catastrophic of the Covid-19 (685,000 dead) could cost him dearly, as well as the crises that marked his mandate.

Brazilians also elect Sunday their 513 federal deputies, the governors of the 27 states and the deputies of the state assemblies.

Like the president, all serve four-year terms.

A third of the 81 Senate seats will also be renewed, but for eight years.

With AFP

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